New Hampshire 2018: The Bloody First

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I figured I wanted to post about stuff like this. This is mostly going to be about NH-1, considering NH-2 is Safe D. I've got a lengthy NH-1 thread on AAD, but I figured I'd post about it here.

NH-1:

Democratic Primary:

Tier 1: The front-runners.

Chris Pappas: I'd say he's the best candidate. He's been tagged as a rising star in the party, holding down an R-leaning district for 6 years in the Executive Council. He also runs a popular restaurant in Manchester – the chicken tenders are to die for. You can pretty much tell that he's the state establishment's horse in the race. He has almost every major figure in the state's endorsement, and they've been prepping him for higher office.

Despite his fairly establishment bend, he's about as progressive as CSP, and is a very formidable candidate. However, he has quite a bit of weakness in the general: he has what I like to call Rubio Syndrome. He has a tendency to rely on parroting robotic talking points. He's also trying to be too nice, resorting to indirect attacks on Sullivan's residency and stances on the issues without directly naming her. Despite not supporting MFA I'd still vote for him.

Maura Sullivan: On paper, she has a great resume. She's a former Marine captain who was appointed to lead veterans' services after her tours in Iraq. She's fundraising at breakneck pace, and is ideologically a very good fit for the district. She's also a personal friend of a rising star in Seth Moulton, long before they got into politics. So what's wrong with her?

First of all, Maura Sullivan is a Wulfric-esque moderate hero. I can at least understand being moderate on touchier issues like pipelines, but there's absolutely no reason to be moderate on the issue of Gina Haspel or Confederate monuments. Even Ralph Northam, who got dragged for running the campaign of a moderate hero, didn't waver on the latter. She's also pledged to join No Labels's caucus, and is the only one who has declined to endorse marijuana legalization. I can't tell you how many other common-sense Democratic issues there are where she's been the only one to stand against the field in the name of “moderation” and “electability”.

Second (and most importantly) of all, Maura Sullivan is a carpetbagger. She grew up in Illinois, went to school in Boston, and went to DC for work. Special interest groups (namely EMILY's List and the veteran/service lobbies) lobbied her to run in IL-3 and VA-10, and she briefly explored a run in IL-6 before moving up here last June. She only moved here last June from DC, and announced her run in August shortly after CSP retired. This actually gives her less connection than Scott Brown – at least he owned property here!

We can't really deal in black and white with her, because most of her strengths and weaknesses are double-edged swords. Sure, she's breaking records (even outpacing Annie Kuster) and can control a lot of the messaging in the race, but most of it is coming from out-of-state. She's actually raised more money from Bain Capital than she has from NH. There are a lot of people (including Pappas) who have hit her on it. It's a very powerful tool, but it only amplifies the main mark on her. Once she gets over the hump in 2018, she can lock this seat down like Kuster did. However, she's far to Shea-Porter's right, and if the vote wasn't split Pappas would be in the drivers' seat. If she wins the nomination, I will vote third-party, and there are a lot of people who would do the same.

Tier 2: If the stars align in the right way, I could see them winning

Naomi Andrews: A very interesting candidate. She was Shea-Porter's former Chief of Staff, and is fairly young as well. She's got her former boss's endorsement, and has been raising decent amounts of money. She's probably the only reason the primary is a toss-up right now – she cuts into Pappas's state establishment base and Mindi Messmer's connection to the grassroots.

Obviously, her strengths are her previous campaign infrastructure and the endorsement of the incumbent. Her big weakness is her late entry into the race – she only entered in May (when Pappas and Sullivan were starting to build their warchests). If Naomi Andrews got in sooner, she would be Tier 1.

Deaglan McEachern: Former tech executive who runs a network of small business owners. He led a group to bring Amazon's second HQ to NH. He's also the son of perennial candidate and Portsmouth-connected Paul McEachern. I thought he'd flame out like everyone else, but he's shown a surprising ability to fundraise.

Despite his pedigree, he's actually one of the more liberal candidates. Although he doesn't identify as a Berniecrat, McEachern is closer to the Bernie wing ideologically, and I'd actually consider him more progressive than Mackenzie, Sanders, and O'Rourke. He's my second choice in the race.

Mindi Messmer: Environmental scientist, first-term state rep, and my candidate of choice. She's firmly affiliated with the Bernie wing, having the voice of the NH grassroots. First came to prominence after discovering a child cancer cluster in the Seacoast. I want her to run. She also experienced sexism in the primary, being silenced by a male candidate and a male organizer at the Women's March. She'd be Tier 1 too if the Bernie field wasn't split between five candidates.

Tier 3: Everything needs to go right

Mark Mackenzie: Current state rep and former AFL-CIO head. I was high on him at first. Then, he demonstrated an inability to reach out beyond his union base – half of which has committed to Pappas. He also was the candidate I mentioned in Mindi's blurb who silenced her. He's also closely tied to Bernie, but is interestingly the only candidate who has committed to Pelosi.

Lincoln Soldati: Former mayor of Somersworth and county attorney for fundraising fairly well. Has tied himself to Bernie, and is probably about as liberal as Messmer. Other than that, there's really not much to say about him. He could conceivably win.

Tier LOL: No chance of winning. Serious flaws in the campaign.

Levi Sanders: Levi Sanders is New Hampshire politics's version of James Dolan. He's trying to carry on his father's name and legacy, but is a complete and utter failure. He joined the race after Mackenzie, Pappas, and Messmer absorbed his father's infrastructure. Even Bernie's strongest supporters don't know why he's running. He's also to the right of Bernie on a few issues, like ICE. And unlike Sullivan, he doesn't even live in the district. He lives in NH-2, right along the Vermont border.

Despite his name and national clout, he's raising about on par with the Tier 3 candidates. None of it is from in-state. In short, nobody is supporting him, nobody thought he has a chance, and nobody knows why he's running. It's especially confusing when you find out that Annie Kuster is voting for Dodd-Frank repeal in his home district.

Terence O'Rourke: Combat veteran, City Attorney for Rochester. Unfortunately, his campaign strategy seems to be online-based astroturfing, using sockpuppet accounts to boost himself and sling mud at the Tier 1s. This has earned him some flack in the party, Maura Sullivan, and even Seth Moulton. He's also expressed some concerning views, attacking the Sandy Hook kids for being active on gun control and not abolishing ICE (a surprise for me).

Paul Cardinal/Wiliam Martin: Apparently both are businessmen. Martin, very much, is a literal who.

Outlook:

Overall, I'd say the primary could go either way. I've said to believe the hype around Sullivan from the get-go. Her base isn't really split, and she has the money to flood the airwaves. Hell, there's even a more blatant carpetbagger in the race to distract from her own ties to DC. There's also the fact that Chris Pappas is going too soft on her, resorting to subtle, indirect attacks. For example, naming Sullivan for not taking a stand on Confederate monuments could have labeled her as a racist, but he chose to put a bland statement about them. It looked fairly irrelevant to the general public, as there are none in NH.

It's a shame there are five Berniecrats (and one more who's about as liberal as the rest of them), because I truly do think Messmer or McEachern could have been Tier 1 too. Sullivan's got her baggage, and Pappas is just way too nice. There's a perfect opening for a liberal lion here, but there's just not enough voters.

Moreover, the race shows a very, very delicate dance. Instead of an outright Clinton/Bernie split like KS-03, it's now a very subtle war between national interest groups and the state establishment. The state establishment is keeping things positive (as they usually do). If EMILY's List puts their thumb on the scale, they could tilt things in Maura's favor. I have Sullivan by 2 right now, as much as I hate to admit it.

Republican Primary:

Eddie Edwards: The first candidate to announce, and someone who I considered to be their best candidate. After a surprisingly close finish against David Watters, he decided to take things to a higher level and run for NH-1. And surprisingly, he's gained a lot of establishment support. Generally, the NHGOP seems to have realized that he's their best bet.

Andy Sanborn: Andy Sanborn would be a fantastic candidate. He's a state senator who locked down a swing seat (albeit a gerrymandered and ancestrally GOP one), and is a fairly popular businessman around the Concord area. His problem is fairly simple: he's an asshole. He's blackmailed his constituents, he's called Maggie Hassan a hag, and compared Obamacare to a plane crash three days after it happened. Most of the establishment actually backed Edwards for unknown inside reasons, which later turned out to be him sexually harassing a staffer on a daily basis. You can argue about his politics or whether he's right, but the guy is human garbage.

Andy Martin: Perennial candidate, and pioneer of the birther movement.

Michael Callis: Literal who, supports impeaching Trump for some reason but has generally GOP issues.

Jeffory Denaro: Literal who.

Outlook:

No tier lists for obvious reasons. In short, the primary's much uglier than the Democratic primary. Edwards is on the record saying that he couldn't support Sanborn, and walked out of a debate because he didn't pledge to support him. Edwards is already strong among the grassroots GOP, is fairly proven, and is pulling in more money from other donors. I think he wins, and I honestly think he'll get Trump's endorsement too.

General:

Assuming Edwards wins, the general election is Likely D with Pappas and Tilts D with Sullivan. I think Pappas's gloves will come off after the primary – he won't be so nice with them. I really don't know what to think about the Edwards/Sullivan matchup. As I said before, Scott Brown actually outperformed Ayotte in Rockingham and Hillsborough, especially in the border towns like Plaistow and Seabrook. But there's the issue of voter turnout, where Democrats are energized and Republicans really aren't.

Any matchup with Sanborn is Safe D, even for Sullivan or Levi. The establishment wants nothing to do with him, everyone thinks he's human garbage, and I don't see a way he doesn't get triaged. In this climate, where women are mobilized, he will lose.

NH-2:

Democratic candidates:

Annie Kuster: Atlas forced meme, and moderate Democrat. Desperately needs a primary challenge, due to her concerning votes (specifically on Dodd-Frank and surveillance). If I were in NH-2, I would not vote for her, I would campaign for any primary challenger, and I might even run myself. She's a very formidable campaigner, but NH-2 is probably the more elastic and rural of the two districts. If Levi Sanders had any political skill, he'd run here to give her a reminder of who she represents.

Republican candidates:

Steve Negron: Generic R businessman and state rep. Seems to have the most buzz, according to straw polls. He has a really creepy slogan of "Bring Annie home".

Stewart Levenson: Former VA doctor, blew the whistle on the VA conditions in Manchester. Is self-funding heavily.

Lynne Blankenbeker: A serving Navy veteran. Was a state rep, and actually won in 2010 in the heart of Concord. She, however, retired in 2012 to go on combat duty. She's actually been floated as a candidate for a while, but never really got a chance to run until now. She's probably the most conservative candidate, but is very much a gaffe machine. She has some out there views on unions and Planned Parenthood.

Bob Burns: Former Hillsborough County Treasurer and Executive Councilor, and interestingly enough, the guy who lost to Pappas in 2012. After years of people running in their own districts, we have two true carpetbaggers now. Bob Burns lives in Bedford, which is in NH-1.

Libertarian candidates:

Tom Alciere: Former NH state rep who ran as an R to get elected. Resigned after endorsing killing cops. Also got arrested for physically assaulting a 12-year-old girl. He is too crazy for DWPerry, who led the charge to get him thrown off the ballot.

Justin O'Donnell: Generic Libertarian.

General: Safe D, nothing to see here. If there was a better national mood or someone like Jeanie Forrester or Joe Kenney was running, then we could talk about a chance. But Kuster's not losing in 2018.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Now, now. Sullivan isn't an angry NH woman.

She's an angry DC woman.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I'll definitely be voting Pappas in Sept.    I really hope Sullivan doesn't get swept in by the pro-female environment because Pappas is far and away the better candidate.  

On the governor race I'm a lot more torn though, both candidates seem to have their positives.

Yeah I'm personally for Kelly. Marchand's previous moderate ties concern me.

So pissed at Gabbard for endorsing Sullivan. Hopefully it doesn't confuse progressives.

It isn't. Everyone with enough info to know who Gabbard is already knows Sullivan is the least progressive.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

NHDEM is a great state party. Its efficient, effective, and strangely progressive, compared to other establishment DEM parties. Pappas clearly is the best candidate in this race, both electorally and ideologically. But it seems that my fear is coming to fruition, that special interest groups such as Emily's List would push terrible candidates against more electable/more progressive alternatives, female and male alike.

I hope that her history as a carpetbagger will sink her, but I would need some polling to be sure.

Well that's to be expected. EMILY's List is a centrist front group posting as a pro-woman's organization. They are the biggest institutional supporters of the Lean-In styled white feminism that's endemic in our society today.

Mindi Messmer: Actually experienced sexism on the campaign trail. She was nearly silenced at her local Women's March after Mark Mackenzie complained to the male organizer (who happeend to be a Mackenzie supporter), and the backlash caused him to cave. Instead, EMILY's List endorsed Sullivan, who I've gone on about for years as a bad candidate.

Then again, this is more iffy because EMILY's List never had any intention of endorsing anyone but Maura Sullivan. I'd be willing to bet that they were the "anonymous interest group" who lobbied her to run against Lipinski. VoteVets isn't the type to intervene against a sitting Congressman, and Lipinski's biggest knock against him was his opposition to abortion. EMILY's List chose to back Sullivan because they're one of the groups that's responsible for parachuting Sullivan down.

Laura Moser: Former resistance activist passed over by EMILY's List. Despite raising equal amounts of money, they decided to intervene for a proven union buster, and said union buster won due to their intervention. Once again, iffy, thanks to her carpetbagging. She might legitimately have been a worse candidate.

Lori Saldana, CA-52 2012: Way back when, Brian Bilbray had a more progressive challenger. Inexplicably, EMILY's List passed over her in the primary against Scott Peters, a more conservative man who was running. She later lost the primary by 800 votes. Now, he is one of the most conservative incumbents in a rapidly D-trendng district.

Lucy Flores, NV-04 2016: To put it as simply as they can, Lucy Flores is exactly the type of candidate that EMILY's List would support. Not only is she a staunchly pro-choice Democratic woman, but she campaigned on getting an abortion. They had no problem endorsing her when she was an inoffensive Democrat running for state Assembly or Lt. Gov. But 2016 rolled around, and they endorsed Susie Lee instead. Susie Lee, despite living in a flippable swing district with a perennial GOP candidate, decided to inexplicably run here, even when two viable Democratic candidates already existed.

You already know the story. EMILY's List endorses Lee, Lee finishes third in the primary, Flores finishes second, and noted creep Ruben Kihuen wins the primary. He later becomes a casualty of the #MeToo movement, while noted Democratic man Steven Horsford seeks to run for his seat. It's very clear that she was passed over because of her support of Bernie Sanders.

EMILY's List couldn't give any less of a crap about electing pro-choice Democratic women. Unless you're fine with the current pro-corporate economic order, they don't care about it. Time and time again, they've proven that they'd rather have a corporatist man over a progressive woman.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Dave Wasserman's take on the primary.

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* She hasn't mentioned her work for Pepsi much (if even at all). She's mainly said she moved here because she had a soft spot for the state, she's been in the Boston area, and has some activism roots helping Shea-Porter herself when she first ran.

* I think she'll win, not because Pappas isn't fundraising like he shpuld, but because Pappas is being too nice. Politics is a bloodsport, especially in the era. Pussyfooting about how "certain candidates" are taking loads of money from Bain, tucked away on a position page is much less effective. His statement condeming Sullivan also was seen as "who cares" because he never named her.

* There's also the fact that Rockingham is less insular because there are a lot of transplants.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

It's time for a rundown on how garbage Andy Sanborn is. I've actually posted about this guy when his career was starting to take off in 2013-2014.

• 2004: He shut down his bike business without telling anyone, citing "poor health" and wanting to retire. Workers were up in arms, and suppliers sued for the money they lost in a lengthy lawsuit. In reality, he sold his stock, kept his former storefronts to rent out (which becomes important later), and opened up a bar.
• May 2013: calls Maggie Hassan "Haggie", says it's a typo and deletes tweet
• July 2013: Compares Obamacare to a very recent plane crash. When called out on it, denies it. They play audio proof that he said it, and he admits it and gives a non-apology "I'm sorry if" apology.
• January 2014: A college constituent emails him about marijuana. He takes the time to look up his information, see he got a scholarship, and threatens to get it revoked if he contacts him again. Nobody really knows where he got the info from. This is after he rented out the space from his former bike shop to a head shop.

Now, we have Andy Sanborn is human garbage, #MeToo edition:

• Talking with male staffer about his vacation, he says it sucks his wife can't come along because of his House business. A male staffer jokes about it, and Sanborn asks him how good he is at giving blowjobs. This gets reported by another aide and the Senate's legal counsel. The intern seemed uncomfortable, but everyone took it as a joke. The complaint was dismissed.
• Sanborn makes a sexual comment about a female staffer to a different male staffer. Says she's hot and that the male staffer "probably wants to f*** her". Overheard by the assistant chief of staff.
• Sanborn hit on the female staffer from the second incident on a daily basis. It got so bad that another state senator stepped in, encouraged her to file a complaint, and transferred her to her office. That state senator later was elected NHGOP chair, so that would certainly explain the reluctance by the establishment to get behind Sanborn.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

So another Dem military vet in the race is attacking Sullivan accusing her of stolen valor.

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http://www.unionleader.com/state-government/congressional-candidates-military-service-records-under-attack-20180826

Strangely enough, Moulton decided to intervene.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

So another Dem military vet in the race is attacking Sullivan accusing her of stolen valor.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.unionleader.com/state-government/congressional-candidates-military-service-records-under-attack-20180826

Strangely enough, Moulton decided to intervene.

How so?

This:

https://twitter.com/sethmoulton/status/1032992805285765120?s=20


That’s a pretty gross attack on her service. He’s saying that because she was a woman serving before women were allowed in ground combat roles, she shouldn’t say that she experienced combat, even though several other women in her division were killed in combat.

It's very weird, considering O'Rourke is non-competitive, and bringing in about $5,000 per quarter. His campaign structure consists almost entirely of astroturfing on Twitter to the point where he's actually bought likes/retweets for one of my tweets.

On another note, I can definitely see where Jeppe is coming from here, and why O'Rourke's statement was sexist. I was originally bearish after she said that people telling her it "wasn't her turn to run" was misogynstic. We can certainly argue that Sullivan not serving in combat was institutional sexism, but people saying Sullivan should wait a few years isn't sexist and she knows it isn't sexist.

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Moulton's whole shtick is going around and endorsing every veteran running for Congress. It's very obnoxious and superficial, but when you look at his actions in congressional primaries through that lens, his actions make sense.  

Seth Moulton is a personal friend of Maura Sullivan's. I'd have to imagine this one feels a bit more personal for him. There's a certain group of people that are trying to make Maura Sullivan happen, whether it be fighting Roskam, Lipinski, Comstock, Edwards, or Sanborn. I'd say Moulton is the brainchild behind it.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

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Not impressed with this justification to be honest. This is reminds me (if not quite to the same degree) of Scott Brown trying to say how he had really deep roots because his family was from there rather than just admitting that he had carpetbagged.

She actually hasn't said anything at all about her time as a Pepsi manager. Like I said, her justification is that she's always had a soft spot for the state. According to her, she loved going on vacation here, wanted to go here for college at Dartmouth, and constantly made trips up here when she was living in MA and worked for CSP. She was going to live here no matter what, but my Congressional seat happened to open up and she just wanted to make a difference.

Still not impressed with the justification, but it's not as farfetched as "I worked in Boston".

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Final forum update, out from Manchester:

* Pretty much, it was everyone vs. Pappas and Sullivan. More of the same song and dance about how Pappas was being anointed by the state establishment, while Sullivan was a carpetbagger bought by Big Pharma.

* McEachern was probably the star of the forum. He called out Pappas for not doing enough to stop Sullivan and name names, and called Sullivan out for crying sexism about everyone's opposition to her carpetbagging. Perhaps this is a concession that he has no chance, but the guy definitely has a bright future.

* The loser is our resident lolcow, Levi Sanders. He is still the personification of the "old man yells at cloud" meme. Most strangely enough, he is still attacking Pappas like he's the sole frontrunner. Anyone with half a brain can tell you that this is not the case, and even then, Pappas seems much more open to the idea than Sullivan.

* Pappas had his most direct attack on Sullivan, attacking her for declaring herself "the presumptive nominee". Still didn't take McEachern's advice.

Overall, not much can really change in this stage.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

And more GOP news, from Andy Sanborn is Human Garbage:

Recently, Sanborn sent out an unattributed mailer attacking Eddie Edwards over unknown reasons. He failed to disclose these attacks, but later admitted they came from him as a "clerical error". These later were revealed to be over Edwards' employment at the liquor commission. He alleged that Edwards got fired from the commission, legally couldn't get a job, and took $160,000 as severance.

In reality, he quit, partially over racist comments from his peers. The $160,000 was to settle a discrimination lawsuit. Edwards and a few of his supporters fired back at Sanborn, uniting to attack him over his #MeToo scandal. Later, he explained what really happened on his terms.

I'd imagine The Powers That Be triage Sanborn if he wins.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

For a moment I thought Sanborn was the guy who called Kuster "ugly as sin", but that was some other NH male, apparently. Anyway, Andy Sanborn for NH-01/NH-SEN/NH-GOV/State Senate/State House/Executive Council, please!

Nope. That guy's dead.

I kinda want him to win so I can vote against Sullivan without worrying tbh

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/deanbarker/status/1036647667189854209

Maura Sullivan not only planned to run in NH-1 from the get-go, but planned to primary Shea-Porter because it was "an easy shot".

As much as I like Messmer, I'm on board with Pappas now. We need to stop Maura Sullivan at all costs.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Sullivan picked the worst place to carpetbag, she should've went for VA-10 or somewhere in FL, NV where most of the people are transients. I don't even know why she bailed on Illinois, wasn't she in IL-14 which is absolutely winnable.

NH-1 is actually more full of transients. NH-2 is the more insular district. Most of those transients are Republican, but nevertheless there are transients.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

The entire establishment is behind Pappas, and every single candidate is attacking her.

Last time I checked, EMILY's List was pretty damn establishment. If you're talking about the state establishment, you have a point there, but to suggest she's an anti-establishment candidate is absurd. She just comes from a different, more ascendant breed. You also grossly understimate Seth Moulton's electoral machine, especially when there are two other living, breathing examples in Conor Lamb and Amy McGrath.

I'm not sure why you're miffed that every single candidate is attacking her. That's politics. Top-tier candidates get attacked, just like Pappas is for being a face of the state establishment. It's a bloodsport.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

From the guy who's the source of most of the anti-Maura sentiment on this border:

* She is a carpetbagger who went district shopping before settling for NH-1. She was recruited to run by the special interest groups that supported her. A certain special interest group that totally, definitely isn't EMILY's List encouraged her to run in IL-3 against Lipinski. She actually explored a run in IL-6 before moving to New Hampshire. Within weeks, she was ostensibly running here.

* If these reports are true, she was planning to primary one of the most progressive swing seat Democrats with a lot of history. Carol Shea-Porter is the first female Congresscritter we've had, and is the first really progressive representative. She's universally respected among the grassroots for upstaging the establishment and winning. She's also taken a lot of tough votes that could have lost her career. I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC helped Sullivan - they haven't been the biggest fans of CSP anyway and wanted someone else to run in 2016.

* Sullivan is to Shea-Porter's right. She's basically a moderate hero. Sullivan is on the record tying herself to No Labels, being anti-legalization, pro-appeasement, and hasn't taken a stance on pipelines. I've evern heard eyewitness accounts personally that she refused to take a stance on Gina Haspel. These are all common-sense issues that the rest of the field agrees on. Where Shea-Porter stood alone to stand up for progressive values, Sullivan stands alone with Republicans.

She's actually come out for $15, but that's one issue. O'Rourke seems more like your cup of tea.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

The entire establishment is behind Pappas, and every single candidate is attacking her.

Last time I checked, EMILY's List was pretty damn establishment. If you're talking about the state establishment, you have a point there, but to suggest she's an anti-establishment candidate is absurd. She just comes from a different, more ascendant breed. You also grossly understimate Seth Moulton's electoral machine, especially when there are two other living, breathing examples in Conor Lamb and Amy McGrath.

I'm not sure why you're miffed that every single candidate is attacking her. That's politics. Top-tier candidates get attacked, just like Pappas is for being a face of the state establishment. It's a bloodsport.

Check his endorsement list. That will explain everything.

Chris Pappas: State establishment
Maura Sullivan: National establishment

Catch my drift?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

What’s everyone’s problem with Sullivan anyways? Regardless that does not matter since Levi will win the primary.

From the guy who's the source of most of the anti-Maura sentiment on this border:

* Sullivan is to Shea-Porter's right. She's basically a moderate hero. Sullivan is on the record tying herself to No Labels, being anti-legalization, pro-appeasement, and hasn't taken a stance on pipelines. I've evern heard eyewitness accounts personally that she refused to take a stance on Gina Haspel. These are all common-sense issues that the rest of the field agrees on. Where Shea-Porter stood alone to stand up for progressive values, Sullivan stands alone with Republicans.

She's actually come out for $15, but that's one issue. O'Rourke seems more like your cup of tea.

Sorry, what do you mean she's "pro-appeasement"? Appeasing whom?

Schumer's shutdown deal.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Just got a new mailer in. Pappas has his first real direct attack on Sullivan... a week before the campaign is over.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/JudyReardon/status/1037082764212936704?s=19

Sullivan follows suit. Much more forceful and personal than "Maura's money comes from out of state/Wall Street." The state establishment is furious, with Pappas's allies claiming homophobia. They'll come around if she wins.

Dante Scala, a professor at UNH, said that the negativity could cause a third candidate to slip through. The problem is that McEachern isn't well known outside of Portsmouth, Andrews is obscure, and the Bernie vote is split six different ways. And that's not even counting Pappas and McEachern cutting into it.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Mega Update on the WMUR debate. This is far from the "candidate forums" we saw here - these are televised and sponsored by WMUR (as opposed to the NHDP). I spent an hour watching this so you don't have to.

• Atmosphere - Things were largely civil, except Levi's nepotistic screeching over M4A and Pappas. It's, once again, very odd that he's only attacking him and not Sullivan. But overall, no mudslinging between Sullivan and Pappas.
  
  
• Immigration - More of the same we saw in Exeter. Although they didn't speak, Soldati and Messmer are the only ones who support abolishing ICE, with lots of awkward dodging from the other candidates once the TV cameras rolled. Levi and O'Rourke are the big surprises. Levi, less so, because Bernie's only supporting the movement for political purposes (see: flip-flopping after three weeks). O'Rourke generally seems more okay with it, and pointed to Trump. I found that Naomi Andrews's answer was very moving.
  
  
• Gun control - Everyone agrees. Maura stuck to her talks with constituents. Cardinal/Soldati both were great, offering clear solutions.
  
  
• Sullivan's residency (why trust her when she has no ties to the state?) - More of the same. She dodged it, talking about more of her background. She decided to talk about how she and her fiance moved here. I thought that her closing statement ("It's so great to finally be home") would have served a lot better here to connect her service to here. Overall, it seemed like rambling.
  
  
• Pappas's ties to the state establishment - He says he has the pulse of the people of NH. More subliminal attacks on Sullivan, about being NH born-and-raised. Messmer chimed in about her NH ties and her ties to the Bernie movement. Overall, both rocked it.
  
  
• Medicare for All - Levi did his usual nepotistic screeching about Chris Pappas. Cardinal and Messmer talked about how it saved money compared to subsidies. McEachern and Soldati talked about its effect on business costs, with the former talking about his personal impact in the broken American system. MacKenzie brought up cutting from places like the defense budget and tax cuts from the rich. Andrews talked more about buying into Medicare without attacking MFA. Pappas and Sullivan talked more about how they believed healthcare is a human right, and how they needed to fight Trump. Overall, I found Pappas and Sullivan were more open to the idea, with Pappas/Andrews offering their own compelling visions and McEachern having the best story.
  
  
• Identification - Everyone considers themselves a progressive, except O'Rourke, who is an FDR Democrat. Genuinely would not be surprised if O'Rourke found Atlas.
  
  
• Congressional healthcare - I thought this was a stupid question but whatever. Sullivan said that veterans should get the same care. Pappas said he wouldn't take a public healthcare benefit until everyone had access.
  
  
• 2016 - most of the same. Pappas, Andrews, Soldati, and O'Rourke were Hillary supporters. McEachern, Messmer, some guy named Levi, O'Rourke, Cardinal, and Martin backed Bernie. O'Rourke and Soldati surprised me on this issue. O'Rourke is exactly the type of anti-establishment populist that would support Bernie, and Soldati's one of the two most liberal candidates. I wouldn't have ever expected them to support Clinton. McEachern confirmed he voted for Bernie, which was less surprising. If I knew sooner I'd probably have voted for him. Sullivan refused to answer, saying that she only supported Hillary in the general. That scratched a lot of heads and even left some wondering if she voted at all. Massive whiff here on her part.
  
  
• Afghanistan/Iraq - Martin, Pappas, and MacKenzie call for withdrawals. McEachern and Andrews saw a bigger issue with authorization of use of force, with Andrews shoehorning her bipartisan record in Shea-Porter's office. O'Rourke said it best, though.
  
  
• Trump impeachment - Messmer, Martin, and Cardinal want more time with the Mueller investigation. Soldati, McEachern, and Andrews are all for it. Soldati called Trump a threat, and Andrews talked about her ability to connect with voters. Pappas talked more about protecting the Mueller investigation.
  Overall, the big standout was - you guessed it - Andrews, with a sprinkling of McEachern.
  
  
• Free tuition and student loan debt - Everyone is affected by student loans. More dodging from Sullivan, with vague talks about access. MacKenzie wants free college. Not much of a winner here.
  
  
• Opioid crisis (should the feds go after opioid manufacturers) - Pappas is all for it, and talked about how expanding Medicaid and federal resources would help with it. This drew another fit of nepotistic screeching from Levi. Soldati took a prosecutor's angle, talking about how it is a public health issue and not a criminal issue. Andrews talked about how our medical examiner quit because he couldn't handle it, and echoed about defending Obamacare and Medicaid expansion. O'Rourke said that he would not only do it, but was in process of joining a lawsuit as the city attorney of Rochester. Andrews and Pappas really knocked it out of the park here.
  
  
• Pelosi - More of the same. Most talked about fresh blood (including Sullivan). MacKenzie was the only real supporter of her. Pappas and Andrews said they were focused on Pelosi, though Pappas was more open to new leadership. Cardinal and O'Rourke outright said she was too far to the right. Soldati and Levi said she needed to endorse $15 and M4A, with Levi saying he'd support Barbara Lee.
  
  
• Chief of Staff - who would be your Chief of Staff? - In LolLevi news, he named Sullivan, who is very much not a Bernie person. Sullivan and Messmer wanted Soldati. O'Rourke picked McEachern for being "the only person as Irish as he was." Naomi wanted Pappas, while Cardinal, Pappas, MacKenzie, McEachern, and Martin wanted Naomi.
  
  
• Personal trivia - O'Rourke is the only hunter there, and there are a lot of fishers there.
   Most people love the mountains. MacKenzie, Cardinal, and O'Rourke (who lives in Lake Country) are more lake people. Messmer is the only beach person, despite our beach being New England's greatest display of white trash culture.
  
  
• North Korea - Mackenzie dodged. Martin and McEachern supported "continuing playing hardball", but didn't want war without them striking first. Messmer, Cardinal, Levi, Soldati, and O'Rourke supported more diplomacy. Sullivan dodged it, attacking Trump instead.
  
  
• DC or commute from NH - Everyone wants to commute. Sullivan's answer was probably the best and the most genuine communication she's had.

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• The big winner was Naomi Andrews. You can tell she holds a great deal of respect from her opponents, and she was very clear on her positions on the issue. As I said before, it's a goddamn shame she jumped in so late, and it's an even bigger shame Pappas didn't go for Governor. I truly believe we wouldn't be talking about Sullivan if she got in earlier.
  
  
• Pappas did the second-best. A few dodges, but he at least connected well and offered solid solutions. I'm much more confident about his chances, and I think he did well. He stopped just short of calling Sullivan's attacks homophobic, but said they were certainly over the line.
  
  
• The best Berniecrat was McEachern. Overall, most of them washed except Cardinal and Soldati.
  
  
• Levi Sanders did Levi Sanders things again.
  
  
• I think Maura Sullivan did pretty poorly. She spent most of it trying to connect to NH voters, talking about her life and her experiences connecting with voters rather than her stances on the issues. Overall, there was a lot of fluff and no real substance to most of what she said. Overall, her dodges, quite literally, left more questions than answers, to the point where there was an awkward silence.
  
  
• I'm genuinely surprised O'Rourke isn't an Atlas poster. He's got some pretty clunky views that you really wouldn't expect to mash together.
  
  

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

Is anyone using this as a line of attack? And do you still think that she is favoured currently?

Pappas is. He's finally going on the offensive.

I did think he was a favorite, but Sullivan's ugly personal attacks and debate performance give me a hell of a lot of breathing room.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/deanbarker/status/1036647667189854209

Maura Sullivan not only planned to run in NH-1 from the get-go, but planned to primary Shea-Porter because it was "an easy shot".

As much as I like Messmer, I'm on board with Pappas now. We need to stop Maura Sullivan at all costs.

It’s an anonymous source from an excerpt on an opinion column published by a small newspaper. I doubt it’s accurate.

The anonymous source has been revealed to be Joseph J. McCarthy, a former dean at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard when she was there.

I highly doubt a Harvard dean and a close academic advisor would lie about her intentions.