New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter I: The Announcement

January 12, 2015
BREAKING---In a joint statement, Vice President Joe Biden and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announce that they will not be running for President in 2016.

I am proud and honored to have served the people of Delaware as a Senator for 36 years, and I am humbled to have served the entire nation as Vice President for the last 8 years, but it is time for me to go out on a high note and retire from politics, becoming a private citizen for the first time since 1973.
Vice President Joe Biden

It is time for a new generation of leaders to guide the Democratic Party to victory and the United States to peace and prosperity, and the party should be fielding candidates of the future, not people from its past. I look forward to a Democratic Primary with a wide field of candidates and campaigning for the eventual nominee.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Joe and Hillary have been vital members of my administration and have been two of the greatest American leaders of the last four decades. While I am sad to see them go, I look forward to finishing out the next two years with Joe, and I wish them both best of luck in retirement.
President Barack Obama

With Secretary Clinton and Vice President Biden out, the Democratic field was as wide as ever. Meanwhile, the Republicans began to mobilize for 2016 with a new sense of optimism in knowing that their nominee would not have to face the formidable Hillary Clinton in the general election. Who would step up to run?

[PolitiJunkie]

This is my first timeline, so I would greatly appreciate any questions, comments, suggestions, or other feedback as we go along! Predictions are welcome as well.

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter II: Obama's Third Quarter

The first two years of Obama's second term were marked by a slowly increasing economy and a stalemated government. Obama had some major successes in foreign policy, however. With no end in sight to the Syrian Civil War, Obama's decision not to intervene was universally praised. Additionally, North Korean aggression seems to have quelled for the time being, and Iran's nuclear program has encountered difficulties. Obama's approval ratings in January 2015 are in the mid-fifties and unemployment is at 6.7%

2013 Gubernatorial Elections



New Jersey's gubernatorial election went as expected, with Christie remaining highly popular and Barbara Buono running a fairly JV campaign. As memories of Hurricaine Sandy had began to subside, the election wasn't as much of a landslide as many had expected, but Christie still won handily.

Chris Christie (R) 56.7%
Barbara Buono (D) 43.4%          

REPUBLICAN HOLD

Virginia's election was much more interesting. The election showed the two candidates in a dead heat up until election day, but ultimately, Cucinelli's extreme ideology prevented him from trumping McAuliffe despite being the more charismatic and energetic candidate.


Terry McAuliffe (D) 50.4%
Ken Cuccinelli (R) 48.3%           

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Midterms

Due to general contentment with Obama's foreign policy successes, a 6.9% unemployment rate for most of 2014, frustration with Republicans' unwillingness to compromise with President Obama, and a much better ground game on the part of the DCCC, the Democrats were able to break the six-year curse that generally results in opposite party gains during midterms. The Democrats were able to maintain their majority in the Senate, and made substantial gains in the House, only a few seats away from reclaiming a majority.

Senate Results



Notable Races

Alaska: She's baaaaaaaack! In what looked like it would be a safe hold for Mark Begich after Sarah Palin won the Republican nomination, ideology trumped popularity, sending Sarah Palin to Washington D.C. in a close election.

Sarah Palin (R) 51.2%
Mark Begich (D) 48.4%                

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Georgia: Jason Carter, a State Senator and the Grandson of U.S. President Jimmy Carter, after defeating Michelle Nunn in a fiercely contested Democratic Primary, defeated a charismatic but poorly organized Herman Cain who narrowly won a three-way primary against Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun.

Jason Carter (D) 54.7%
Herman Cain (R) 45.2%               

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Hawaii: In Hawaii's special election to replace Daniel Inouye, who died in 2012, Representative Colleen Hanabusa beat the appointed Senator, Brian Schatz, in the Democratic Primary, and went on to defeat former Governor and 2012 Senate nominee Linda Lingle handily.

Colleen Hanabusa (D) 67.9%
Linda Lingle (R) 32.1%                

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Iowa: With long-time Democratic Senator Tom Harkin retiring after five terms, this race seemed like it could be a major pick-up opportunity for the Republicans. Unfortunately, Republican voters made the mistake of selecting the severely conservative Steve King over Iowa's other Republican Representative, the much more moderate Tom Latham, in the Primary, and King went on to lose quite embarrassingly for a swing state like Iowa to the Democratic nominee, Bruce Braley.

Bruce Braley (D) 55.1%
Steve King (R) 44.8%                

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Kentucky: With Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell not only being seen as responsible for much of the stalemate in Washington, but also being embroiled in a sex scandal, it seemed as though the real contest in this race would be in the Democratic Primary, between Governor Steve Beshear and Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. However, in an announcement when many believed Beshear would be announcing his campaign, he actually announced his retirement from politics at the end of his gubernatorial term, and offered an enthusiastic endorsement of Grimes. A conservative third-party challenge emerged due to widespread discontentment with McConnell's victory in the low-turnout Republican Primary.

Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42.8%
Matthew Bevin (I) 38.7%
Mitch McConnell (R) 18.5%        

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Maine: Governor Paul LePage decided that instead of running for a second term, he would challenge incumbent Republican Susan Collins who he believed to be not conservative enough. As a result, Collins pursued an independent candidacy and handily defeated LePage as well as the Democratic candidate, Hannah Pingree, former Speaker of the Maine House and daughter of Congresswoman Chellie Pingree.

Susan Collins (I) 53.7%
Hannah Pingree (D) 39.4%
Paul LePage (R) 6.9%             

INDEPENDENT PICKUP

South Carolina: Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham faced a primary challenge, due to the belief that he wasn't conservative enough, from Richard Cash, a Tea Party-backed businessman. Cash narrowly defeated Graham in the low-turnout primary. Cash campaigned very incompetently and made a variety of gaffes during the general election, in which he was ultimately defeated by Vincent Sheheen, the State Senator who narrowly lost to Nikki Haley in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election.

Vincent Sheheen (D) 53.9%
Richard Cash (R) 46.1%         

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

South Dakota: After incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Johnson announced his retirement, and the two most promising Democratic candidates-- his son, Attorney Brendan Johnson, and former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-- both declined to run, former Governor Mike Rounds defeated businessman Rick Weiland.

Mike Rounds (R) 59.1%
Rick Weiland (D) 40.7%           

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Texas: In undoubtedly the most intense race and the biggest upset of the 2014 election season, popular Mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio defeated incumbent Senate Minority Whip John Cornyn. Castro's victory is largely credited to the DSCC's huge successes in increasing turnount amongst Hispanics and other Democratic groups.

Julian Castro (D) 50.2%
John Cornyn (R) 49.7%         

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

West Virginia: In the least surprising race not to feature an incumbent, Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito easily defeated Jeff Kessler, the President of the State Senate, to become West Virginia's first-ever female Senator and first Republican Senator since 1956.

Shelly Moore Capito (R) 61.9%
Jeff Kessler (D) 37.9%           

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Other Senate Results

Alabama      Sessions 67.2%   Figures 32.8%           Republican Hold
Arkansas      Cotton 54.3%           Pryor 45.7%      Republican Pickup
Colorado      Udall 55.1%      Norton 44.8%           Democratic Hold
Delaware      Coons 59.2%           Kovach 40.7%           Democratic Hold
Idaho      Risch 62.4%           Minick 37.6%           Republican Hold
Illinois      Durbin 61.2%           Walsh 38.7%           Democratic Hold
Kansas      Roberts 64.1%           Brewer 35.7%           Republican Hold
Louisiana      Landrieu 51.2%   Landry 48.7%           Democratic Hold
Massachusetts   Markey 66.2%           Winslow 33.7%           Democratic Hold
Michigan      Peters 56.2%           Land 43.8%           Democratic Hold
Minnesota      Franken 63.8%        Bachmann 35.9%   Democratic Hold
Mississippi      Cochran 68.3%          Ellis 31.7%      Republican Hold
Montana           Schweitzer 66.3%        Edmunds 33.7%    Democratic Hold
Nebraska      Heineman 63.4%   Beutler 36.5%           Republican Hold
New Hampshire   Shaheen 55.3%   Guinta 44.7%           Democratic Hold
New Jersey   Booker 61.3%           Rivera 38.7%           Democratic Hold
New Mexico   Udall 59.3%      Berry 40.7%           Democratic Hold
North Carolina   Hagan 55.3%        Berger 44.7%        Democratic Hold
Oklahoma      Inhofe 63.4%           Rice 36.5%      Republican Hold
Oregon       Merkely 56.3%          Atkinson 43.7%   Democratic Hold
Rhode Island    Reed 79.8%      Fung 29.2%      Democratic Hold
South Carolina Special Scott   61.5%          Smith 37.7%           Republican Hold
Tennessee      Alexander 65.1%   Fitzhugh 32.6%   Republican Hold
Virginia      Warner 53.9%           McDonnell 46.1%   Democratic Hold
Wyoming           Enzi 74.6%         Massie 25.4%   Republican Hold

[PolitiJunkie]

Senate Composition:
Democrats 53 (+0)
Republicans 44 (-1)
Independents: 3 (+1)

House Composition:
Republicans 221 (-13)
Democrats 214 (+13)

Incoming Senate Leadership:
President Pro Tempore: Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Majority Leader: Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Majority Whip: Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Minority Leader: Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Minority Whip: John Thune (R-SD)

Incoming House Leadership:
Speaker of the House: John Boehner (R-OH)
Majority Leader: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Majority Whip: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
Minority Leader: Xavier Becerra (D-CA)
Minority Whip: Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)

[PolitiJunkie]

Gubernatorial Results

Though Democrats retained their Senate Majority and made narrow gains in the House, their biggest victories were in the gubernatorial elections, when many Republicans elected in blue or purple states in 2010 thanks to the Tea Party wave found themselves voted out in light of a different national mood. Democrats achieved pickups in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania, whereas Republicans achieved pickups only in Arkansas, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.


Alabama      Bentley 59.1%   Rogers 40.9%   Republican Hold
Alaska      Parnell 58.3%   Paskvan 41.7%   Republican Hold
Arizona      Carmona 49.8%   Bennett 49.4%   Democratic Pickup
Arkansas      Hutchinson 50.1%    Ross 49.7%   Republican Pickup
California      Solis 61.4%    Maldonado 38.5%   Democratic Hold    *
Colorado      Hickenlooper 57.1% Brophy 42.9%   Democratic Hold   
Connecticut      Foley 50.4%   Malloy 49.5%   Republican Pickup
Florida      Crist 51.4%      Scott 49.5%   Democratic Pickup
Georgia      Barrow 50.8%   Deal 49.2%      Democratic Pickup   
Hawaii      Gabbard 69.8%   Aiona 30.2%   Democratic Hold    **
Idaho         Labrador 68.4%   Alfred 31.6%   Republican Hold
Illinois         Madigan 55.2%   Rutherford 44.7% Democratic Hold ***
Iowa         Olson 51.3%   Reynolds 48.7%   Democratic Pickup   
Kansas      Brownback 54.4%   Taylor 45.6%      Republican Hold
Maine         C. Pingree 57.3%   Raye 42.7%      Democratic Pickup
Maryland      Brown 56.4%   George 43.5%   Democratic Hold   
Massachusetts   Brown 52.4%   Coakley 47.6%   Republican Pickup
Michigan      Schauer 52.8%   Snyder 46.4%   Democratic Pickup
Minnesota      Dayton 54.8%   Zellers 45.2%   Democratic Hold
Nebraska      Janssen 68.4%   Dubas 31.6%   Republican Hold
Nevada      Sandoval 56.3%   Miller 43.7%      Republican Hold
New Hampshire    Hassan 58.1%   Bradley 41.9%   Democratic Hold
New Mexico      Martinez 54.9%   King 45.0%      Republican Hold
New York      Cuomo 67.0%   Ball 33.0%      Democratic Hold
Ohio         Cordray 49.8%   Kasich 49.4%   Democratic Pickup
Oklahoma      Fallin 60.3%      Askins 39.7%   Republican Hold
Oregon      Kitzhaber 55.2%   Hanna 44.6%   Democratic Hold
Pennsylvania   Schwartz 54.8%   Corbett 45.2%   Democratic Pickup
Rhode Island   Raimondo 35.8% Doherty 29.2% Chaffee 24.7% Block 10.3%  Democratic Pickup
South Carolina   Haley 56.3%   Ott 43.7%   Republican Hold
South Dakota   Daugaard 63.3%   Heidepriem 36.7%    Republican Hold
Tennessee      Haslam 52.3%   Bresden 47.7%    Republican Hold
Texas         Abbott 52.3%   Davis 47.7%    Republican Hold
Vermont      Shmulin 64.8%   Salmon 35.1%   Democratic Hold
Wisconsin      Walker 53.1%   Barca 46.9%    Republican Hold
Wyoming      Mead 68.2%   Petersen 31.4%    Republican Hold

*In California, after Jerry Brown announced his retirement, a deal was struck between both the current and rising major players in the California Democratic Party to avoid a bitter and divisive primary between the rising stars. The resulting deal was: Hilda Solis would run for Governor in 2014, and Gavin Newsom would run for reelection as Lieutenant Governor. Barbara Boxer would retire in 2016 and Kamala Harris would seek her seat, and Dianne Feinstein would retire in 2018 and Gavin Newsom, term-limited in the Lieutenant Governorship, would seek her seat. Finally, Antonio Villaraigosa would run for Lieutenant Governor in 2018. Of course, there was the possibility that others would try to enter any of these races, but this deal ensured that none of these strong candidates would end up in the same race. This deal was widely known as "the California deal" and seemed very promising.

**Gabbard defeated Neil Abercrombie in a primary challenge.

***Pat Quinn declined to run; Lisa Madigan beat Bill Daley in the Democratic Primary.

Democrats: 26 (+6)
Republicans: 24 (-5)

[PolitiJunkie]

The mid-term results are meant to be exciting and, at times, surprising. However, if there is any result you see that is TOO unrealistic for you or simply doesn't make sense, please let me know so I can consider changing/fixing. Thanks!

[PolitiJunkie]

One thing is this, Mark Darr won't run for senate in Arkansas, and the nomine would be cotton, and he would win

I struggled with this one for a while. Basically, I wanted to keep my numbers at a certain level, and I couldn't see any other practical place for a Democratic pickup to balance out the Republican pickup this would be. So my timeline is occurring in a world where Tom Cotton decides not to run for the Senate, so Mark Darr runs, wins the Republican Primary, and loses to Pryor in the general. I know it's certainly what won't happen in 2014 in real life, but I don't think it's TOO unrealistic (Cotton technically hasn't announced yet) that it substantially worsens the timeline.

[PolitiJunkie]

The mid-term results are meant to be exciting and, at times, surprising. However, if there is any result you see that is TOO unrealistic for you or simply doesn't make sense, please let me know so I can consider changing/fixing. Thanks!

• Sarah Palin won't win statewide in Alaska. It's conservative, but there are a lot of swing voters and she's seen there as someone who quit on Alaska for the national spotlight. I could see this going GOP, but Treadwell is more likely to flip it than Palin ever will be.
• Broun and Gingrey are far from establishment types. They're actually the crazies of the race. Broun is a Tea Party darling, and Gingrey actually defended Todd Akin. If anything Cain would get the establishment vote.
• Bar a Democratic wave Castro won't win either. Texas is simply too conservative in time to elect him statewide. Maybe against Cruz in 2018, but he won't win here.

Thank you! I will definitely change the wording for Georgia. Palin was definitely one of my biggest apprehensions, but it's so much fun to have her in the timeline because she is...well...Palin. The way I look at the race most realistically panning out in this timeline is like the Sanford v. Colbert-Busch race that just wrapped up in South Carolina. Palin is disgraced, though not to the same extent as Sanford, and even though polling favors Begich due to people not wanting to state publicly that they will vote for Palin (hence why polling showed Colbert-Busch anywhere from +1 to +9, but she ended up losing by 9), but ultimately the conservatism of the voters allows ideology to trump personality. Add the fact that Begich is unpopular by 2014, and higher Republican turnout than Democrats for mid-terms, and it's not too too unrealistic.

With regards to Castro, I knew it was a risk, but Cornyn isn't absurdly popular in Texas, and current polling only shows him beating Castro by 7-points. Let's say Democrats do huge huge huge amounts of ground-game work to turn out Hispanics and Democrats, Castro doesn't run too far to the left, and Republicans take the race for granted. I don't think it's tooooo implausible.

[PolitiJunkie]

If you need a Democratic senate pickup, how about in South Carolina, with Granm getting primaried by a tea party nut, and the guy who ran for governor in 2010 run for senate instead of challenging Niki again

That's a great idea. I will change that. It hurts, because Graham is one of my favorite Republicans, but with his reelection and Scott's special election both happening in 2014, and Scott being the more conservative of the two, it makes sense that all the primary challenges will go to Graham. Aren't South Carolina politics the best?

[PolitiJunkie]

Loving this so far, though I question why you left Brownback as unopposed in Kansas. He seems relatively vulnerable based on recent polling, so I'm sure that some Democrats would pounce at that opportunity.

Good call. I did it because I couldn't think of a plausible candidate (with Brewer running for Senate, and Sebelius staying in Obama's cabinet until 2017), but I just figured someone out.

[PolitiJunkie]

Loving this so far, though I question why you left Brownback as unopposed in Kansas. He seems relatively vulnerable based on recent polling, so I'm sure that some Democrats would pounce at that opportunity.

Good call. I did it because I couldn't think of a plausible candidate (with Brewer running for Senate, and Sebelius staying in Obama's cabinet until 2017), but I just figured someone out.

If anything I'd switch Roberts out. He's susceptible to a primary challenge, but he's even having trouble fielding a primary candidate. Brownback is more susceptible than Roberts for a Brewer challenge.

I ended up running Brewer against Roberts, and Chad Taylor, the DA of Topeka, against Brownback. Makes the most sense this way, because Brewer's name has been brought up as a possibility for both elections, whereas Taylor's name has only come up for the gubernatorial. Frankly, it doesn't matter, because no matter what Democratic candidates are in the general elections or how close the gap gets, these races are both going Republican.

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter III: The Open Field

January 21, 2015
BREAKING---NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo announces candidacy for President.

I am running for President because I have fought for every New Yorker, and now I intend to fight for every American. To fight for safer streets and tougher gun laws. To fight for a more sensible tax code. To fight for ethics reform, and better schools, and marriage equality, and environmental justice, and bringing families out of poverty. America, I will fight for you!
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo

Andrew Cuomo's entrance into the presidential race made him an immediate frontrunner. Many potential candidates backed away as a result of such an early announcement, but Cuomo was hardly a field clearer.

January 23, 2015-- NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand will not run.



Many expected Kirsten Gillibrand, who had began to build up a major profile following her landslide 2012 reelection, to enter the 2016 campaign. However, Gillibrand had different ideas.

As honored as I am by all the encouragement, I will not seek the Democratic nomination in 2016; I wish to remain in the Senate at this time. Andrew Cuomo is a great candidate, and while I will not unfairly tilt the race with an endorsement, I look forward to campaigning with the eventual nominee.
New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand



I'm In!
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper



The successful but relatively unknown Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper announced his candidacy on January 26, the first major surprise of the 2016 race. Could Hickenlooper become a dark-horse candidate?



Not in 2016, but vote Hickenlooper!
Montana Sen. Brian Schweitzer



Senator Brian Schweitzer was the next nay-sayer of the 2016 Democratic nomination, but he offered a very early endorsement of John Hickenlooper. Given that Hickenlooper is only one of two candidates in the race, some wonder if there were talks between the two popular Western governors before either decided to enter or stay out.



The last eight years have seen this country turn around, but there is still work to be done. Today, on February 2, 2015, I am announcing my candidacy to be the next President of the United States of America!
Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley



Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's announcement of his candidacy came as highly unsurprising, because despite universal skepticism about his viability in the primary or the general election, it seemed clear he had been planning a run since his second term as Governor began in 2011.



With Gillibrand out and the 2016 Democratic Primary shaping up to be a sausage fest, much speculation surrounded Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. Such speculation was put to rest on February 3, when both announced their intentions to stay out of the race.

Thanks, but no thanks.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren





Not this time.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar





I intend to be the moderate voice in this campaign; compromise is the only way to end the divisive exchange that is plaguing Washington!
Virginia Sen. Mark Warner



With Andrew Cuomo being the only true strong Democratic candidate to have announced his intentions, the big guns came on February 16 when Mark Warner, former Governor and incumbent Senator of Virginia, announced his candidacy.

As announcements wound down, most people felt content with the Democratic field, as everyone seemed to find their niche, whether it be with the South Atlantic moderate, the insurgent liberal Mid-Atlantic Governor, the skillful and compromising New Yorker, or the Western wildcard. However, there was still one candidate waiting to announce, a man who had largely been forgotten about since he quietly left public office in 2014…

We have come too far over the last eight years to see our country reverse now. There is a strong field of Democratic candidates, but I truly feel as though I am ready to lead this nation through the challenges that lie ahead.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick



Patrick's entrance cemented the Democratic field as small but strong. It would likely be a friendly but competitive race. Though Andrew Cuomo certainly occupied frontrunner status, Patrick and Warner were both very promising anti-Cuomo candidates, and there was even the possibility that Hickenlooper or O'Malley could pull an upset. The race for the Democratic nomination was on.

Public Policy Polling 3/1/15: Who do you support for the Democratic nomination?

Cuomo 31%
Patrick 21%
Warner 17%
Hickenlooper 5%
O'Malley 4%
Other/Undecided 22%

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter IV: The Field Clearer?

On January 22, 2015, just one day after Andrew Cuomo sent waves by announcing his candidacy for the presidency, another major announcement came, certainly timed to limit Cuomo's buzz.



The last eight years have seen our national debt double, our unemployment decrease ever so sluggishly, our standing in the world decline, and our moral fabric unhinge. Today, I am announcing my candidacy for the presidency of the United States so we can make America great again!
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio

"Marco Rubio 2016" had been a topic of discussion since the day he was elected to the Senate, and now, it was finally on the path to becoming a reality. Immediately after Rubio's announcement, many Republicans whose names had also been tossed around for 2016 announced their whole-hearted endorsement of Rubio.


Marco Rubio is the man to bring this nation forward!



In a surprising joint statement, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, announced their full-fledged endorsements of Marco Rubio, despite the fact that no other candidate had announced yet.




Former Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney, the mean beaten by President Obama in 2008 and 2012 respectively, did not need to wait to hear any other candidate announcements. The sense was that they wanted a quick and easy Primary and for Rubio to win the White House so he could restore dignity to the Republican Party and greatness to the United States.





Unsurprisingly, Jeb Bush endorsed his former protégée immediately. His brother and his father, both former Presidents, joined Jeb in this announcement.


Much speculation surrounded whether or not Chris Christie would become the anti-Rubio. However, given Rubio's immense appeal, and Chris Christie's ever-increasing unpopularity within the Republican Party, he saw the writing on the wall and announced that he would not run. Notably, however, he did not endorse Rubio.



I need to continue fighting for the people of New Jersey and finish out my term. When it is time for me to run for President, make no mistake, I WILL run for President--I am a young man. 2016 is simply not that time. Unlike many other members of my party, I will wait to see the full slate of candidates before I make an endorsement.
NJ Gov. Chris Christie





With Christie out, the moderate Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada was ready to endorse Rubio. The other popular Western Hispanic Republican Governor, Susana Martinez, joined Sandoval in the announcement. Both would be major forces in helping Rubio win the Western vote and the Hispanic vote should he win the nomination.

Marco Rubio may have been a very popular candidate, but he was not a field clearer. A few weeks after Rubio made his announcement, the buzz began to slow down, and some new candidates announced their intentions to run in 2016.




I am the only candidate in this race who will fight for the civil liberties of every American, while also maintaining a strong record of fiscal conservatism and a foreign policy centered around national defense and securing our borders rather than senseless intervention in conflicts abroad. With your help, we can achieve these goals!
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul




Legislative experience is great-- I have it. But I am the only candidate in this race with executive experience, and my time as Governor of Louisiana will help me immensely when I enter the White House on January 20, 2017!
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal





So what, we lost two elections, and now Republicans want to declare some sort of truce on social issues? I am running for President because I am the candidate who will keep American families strong and reinstate the moral backbone of this nation.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum





The Republican Party needs a moderate voice that can actually WIN the White House and ensure fiscal conservatism without wasting time on fringe social issues. Therefore, I am giving it another shot!
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman





I am in it to win it! Thune 2016!
South Dakota Sen. John Thune


More endorsements…



Bobby Jindal is the best candidate to win back the White House and win back America!
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

A strong Southern voice with vast executive accomplishments in Louisiana, Bobby Jindal has my full support.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich





Rick Santorum is the man to defend American values!
Alaska Sen. Sarah Palin

No, I will not enter the race. Rick Santorum has my whole-hearted support in 2016.
Former Congresswoman Michele Bachmann





Thune is the strongest conservative in this race, and I look forward to campaigning with him.
Former South Carolina Sen. and Heritage Foundation Pres. Jim DeMint

THUNE! THUNE! THUNE!
Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin






Hell yeah I'm supportin' my son! Rand is the right choice for 2016!
Texas Congressman Ron Paul



What once seemed like it would be Rubio's race is now gearing up to be hotly contested. While Rubio is still a clear frontrunner, there are a variety of hats in the ring, and it seems as though certain candidates- namely the most surprising entrance, John Thune- could give Rubio a run for his money.


Public Policy Polling 3/1/15: Who do you support for the Republican nomination?

Rubio 41%
Thune 13%
Jindal 9%
Santorum 4%
Paul 3%
Huntsman 2%
Other/Undecided 28%

[PolitiJunkie]

A big applause for the plausible but exciting chain of events and details on the mid-terms.

Thanks so much! That was definitely the most arduous part to research and type up so far, so I'm glad you enjoyed.



Does anyone have any feedback on the January/February 2015 announcements on the Democratic and Republican sides? As usual, I'd love to hear any questions, comments, or predictions!

[PolitiJunkie]

I have a hard time seeing Jim DeMint choosing bland Thune over Rubio, Jindal and Santorum.

Can we get a list of the House races changing hands and retirements?

Let me think about the DeMint endorsement.

And I will have the list of notable House races tonight.

[PolitiJunkie]

2014 House Democratic Pickups

Democrats were able to pick up 14 House seats in the 2014 midterms mainly by targeting swing districts currently occupied by Republicans elected in 2010 in blue or purple states.


Notable House Elections

CA-12: Nancy Pelosi retires! Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
MD-5: Steny Hoyer retires! Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
HI-1: Colleen Hanabusa retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
IA-1: Bruce Braley retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
MI-14: Gary Peters retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
PA-13: Allyson Schwartz retires after being elected Governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
GA-10: Paul Broun retires after seeking Republican nomination for U.S. Senate election in Georgia and losing to Herman Cain. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
GA-11: Phil Gingrey retires after seeking Republican nomination for U.S. Senate election in Georgia and losing to Herman Cain. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
LA-6: Bill Cassidy retires after seeking Republican nomination for U.S. Senate election in Louisiana and losing to Jeff Landry.  Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
WV-2: Shelley Moore Capito retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
FL-13: Bill Young, the longest-serving Republican Congressman, announces his retirement. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Pickup
TX-4: 90-year old Ralph Hall announces his retirement. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
NJ-2: Frank LoBiondo announces his retirement. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Pickup
NJ-3: Jon Runyan loses his seat to the man he beat for it in 2010, John Adler. Democratic Pickup
NJ-6: Frank Pallone retires after seeking Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate election in New Jersey and losing to Cory Booker. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
MN-6: Michele Bachmann retires after losing the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota to incumbent Al Franken. Jim Graves, the man who nearly beat Bachmann for the seat in 2012, wins the seat after beating the Republican nominee, Marcus Bachmann! Democratic Pickup
CA-21: Freshman Representative David Valado loses his bid for reelection to a formidable Democratic challenger. Democratic Pickup
CA-31: Gary Miller loses his seat to Joe Baca, who lost his seat in 2012 after being merged into another Democrat's district. Democratic Pickup
CO-6: Mike Coffman loses his seat to a formidable Democratic challenger in this swing district, one of the most closely targeted seats by the Democrats in 2014. Democratic Pickup
MI-1: Dan Benishek, elected in this swing district during the Republican wave of 2010, loses his seat. Democratic Pickup
NV-3: Joe Heck, elected in this swing district during the Republican wave of 2010, loses his seat. Democratic Pickup
NY-19: Chris Gibson loses his seat to Scott Murphy, the man he defeated in 2010. Democratic Pickup
IL-13: Unpopular freshman Representative Rodney Davis loses his bid for reelection handily to a Democratic challenger. Democratic Pickup
NY-11: Staten Island, still facing serious damage from Hurricane Sandy and largely disapproving of the Republican Congress, elects Michael McMahon, a Democrat defeated in 2010, over incumbent Republican Michael Grimm. Democratic Pickup
NY-23: Unpopular Republican incumbent Tom Reed, first elected in 2010, loses his bid for reelection. Democratic Pickup
VA-2: In a rematch of 2010, former Democratic Representative Glenn Nye defeats incumbent Republican Scott Rigell in one of the closest and most hotly contested house races of 2014. Democratic Pickup

If you would like to know about any other House race in specific, just ask and I'll fill you in.

[PolitiJunkie]

Hey everyone, can I please have some feedback on this so far? By the way, an update is coming soon. I'm just trying to figure out how to go about this next part without jumping the shark too much.

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter V: Scandal!

Excerpt from New York Times Front Page Article on March 19, 2015:

According to a confidential source, Governor Andrew Cuomo and Kerry Kennedy, known as Kerry Kennedy Cuomo until her alleged divorce from Governor Cuomo in 2013, never obtained a divorce. For unknown reasons, the divorce was pulled in early 2006. Governor Cuomo refused to comment on the allegations, but Kennedy spoke candidly: "In late 2005, after we had been separated for over two years and were about to obtain a divorce, Andrew and I decided that it would be in our best interest financially to simply remain separated without officially divorcing, especially in the event that we decided to renew our relationship which, at the time, seemed plausible." Cuomo's lack of an official divorce from Kennedy is the likeliest explanation for his lifestyle of living with his long-term girlfriend, Sandra Lee, but not actually marrying her. Whether or not Sandra Lee knows about Cuomo's shady marital status is unclear at this time.

Though the breaking scandal pales in comparison to some of the recent sex-related or financial scandals that have marred the New York political scene, torrents of criticism have been unleashed against Governor Cuomo, namely for having blatantly lied about his lifestyle and manipulating his marital status for financial gain, all while branding himself as an ethical and fiscally responsible leader.

Finally, on March 22, Cuomo addressed the breaking story:

The allegations against me, while not wholly untrue, have been taken out of context and manipulated. They are a mindless distraction from my work of serving the people of New York, and I do not intend to address them further.

Such words sealed Cuomo's fate. Cuomo was widely mocked for essentially admitting to the charges against him, but dismissing them as irrelevant and asking others to do the same. All the while, Cuomo continued campaigning for the 2016 Democratic nomination, and the attacks came, with Governor O'Malley and Governor Patrick offering Governor Cuomo the harshest criticisms.



Why is it so hard for politicians today to marry one person, remain married to that person, and share romance and sex with that person only? I've already attacked Governor Cuomo's fiscal stances as too conservative; now I have no doubt in my mind that Cuomo is campaigning in the wrong party's primary.
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley



For a man who markets himself as the hallmark of a new brand of ethically sound, transparent politicians, Governor Cuomo has certainly let down his constituents. I think Governor Cuomo should be more direct about the charges against him, and if appropriate, resign from the Governorship and withdraw from the race.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick

Public Policy Polling 3/26/15: Do you approve of Governor Andrew Cuomo?
Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 61%
Not Sure: 5%

Public Policy Polling 3/26/15: Should Governor Cuomo resign as Governor?
Yes: 54%
No: 31%
Not Sure: 15%

Public Policy Polling 3/26/15: Should Governor Cuomo withdraw from the Democratic Primary?
Yes: 76%
No: 15%
Not Sure: 9%

Eventually, Patrick's wishes came true. Governor Cuomo released the following statement of March 28, 2015:



Within the last few weeks, allegations regarding inappropriate decisions I have made throughout the last decade have come to light. In the meantime, I have let down my family, and I have let down the people of New York, who were promised an ethical and transparent administration. As a result, I shall resign from the Governorship effective noon tomorrow. Lieutenant Governor Duffy is more than prepared to lead this state, and I have no doubt in my mind he will be an excellent Governor. Additionally, I will be withdrawing from the contest for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

Within nine days, the entire face of the 2016 election had changed. With the Democratic and Republican debates less than a month away from commencing, and the campaign season about to go into full swing, many questions lingered about the fate of the Democratic nomination. In the absence of Cuomo, would Deval Patrick rise to the top and secure the nomination quickly and easily? Or, would Cuomo's actions create a sense of disillusionment with the establishment, allowing Hickenlooper or even O'Malley to surge and find success? How would the Warner campaign be affected by all of this? And finally, is it possible that a new candidate could make a late entrance in light of the race's changed circumstances? Frankly, it was anyone's guess.

[PolitiJunkie]

Well it's illegal, and it's totally marriage fraud. It wasn't even so much the Democratic primary voters who were in uproars as New Yorkers and other Democratic primary candidates. Also, people were more angry about Cuomo's initial reaction which was basically "I'm above this," ultimately forcing him to face the music.

[PolitiJunkie]

May I please have some feedback before continuing?

[PolitiJunkie]

FL-22: Lois Frankel was able to expand slightly upon her 2012 margin, defeating her Republican challenger with 56.3% of the vote.

FL-18: In a rematch of the hotly contested 2012 election, freshman Representative Patrick Murphy faced the man he defeated in 2012, former Representative Allen West. West's popularity continued to decline and his extremism was further exposed during the 2014 election, allowing Murphy to defeat West with a more decisive margin than in 2012 in this slightly Republican-leaning district. Murphy received 52.3% of the vote, and West received 47.6% of the vote. The aftermath of the election in the 18th district was, once again, notable. Even though the Murphy won with a 4.7-point margin and the election results were resolved much quicker than in 2012, West once again took weeks to concede. Once he ultimately conceded, however, he did announce his full retirement from politics.

[PolitiJunkie]

Who won the Dem primary in NY-13 (Charlie Rangel's district)?

State Senator Adriano Espaillat challenges Rangel in the Democratic Primary, defining him as a corrupt Washington insider while defining himself as fresh blood that could provide stronger representation for the district. Ultimately, Rangel wins the primary in a 55-45 victory due to loyalty, and he goes onto win the general election with 89% of the vote, just slightly lower than his 2012 result. Do know, however, that in this timeline, Charlie Rangel is vulnerable and will not last much longer!

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter VI: Madame Candidate

March 23, 2015
BREAKING---NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand Announces Entrance into Democratic Primary After Declaring Intentions to Stay Out



Two months ago, I announced that I would not seek the nomination of my party for the Presidency of the United States of America. However, the circumstances have changed. This field lacks a New Yorker. This field lacks a woman. But most importantly, this field lacks an outspoken progressive who will fight for the opportunity of every single American. Therefore, despite my earlier announcement, I will, in fact, be a candidate in this election. The battle ahead is long, but shall I succeed, we can make America stronger!
NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand

Reactions amongst the pundits were mixed; some declared her an instant frontrunner, where others suspected her campaign would have a hard time achieving momentum and contesting against Patrick and Warner. All sides, however, acknowledged that Gillibrand's fundraising prowess, along with her charisma in a field of somewhat bland frontrunners and her ability to connect with groups of voters across the board would come as an asset to her candidacy.

Public Policy Polling 3/24/15- Do you approve of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand?
Yes- 31%
No- 13%
Unsure- 56%

Public Policy Polling 3/24/15- Who do you support for the 2016 Democratic Primary?
Undecided- 57%
Patrick- 14%
Gillibrand- 13%
Warner- 11%
O'Malley- 3%
Hickenlooper- 2%

The results of the polling following Gillibrand's announcement was at first shocking, but then easily understandable. A rousing 57% of Democrats polled were undecided as to who they would support, explained by a field of candidates with little name recognition and lack of high-profile candidates such as Clinton, Biden, and Cuomo. The recent shakeup in candidates can also explain the high number of undecided voters, with many voters reevaluating who they support as a result of Cuomo's exit and Gillibrand's entrance.

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter VII: Time for Some Campaignin'

With Gillibrand's last-minute entrance into the race for the Democratic nomination and the debates for both parties beginning soon, the campaign season was in full swing. Most major Republicans had already made their endorsements, but a plethora of major Democratic endorsements were about to come...



It gives me great pleasure to stand here with the Clintons today to make our endorsement in the current Democratic Primary. Today, we are announcing our full support for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who has shown tremendous initiative and leadership during her time in Congress and will continue to do so as the next President of the United States!
President Barack Obama

Wait...what was that?

It gives me great pleasure to stand here with the Clintons today...

Did Obama simply misspeak? Or was something bigger going on? Unsurprisingly, Obama's reference to both Clintons despite only being with Hillary, in addition to the fact that their press statement began later than expected and the fact that Hillary looked particularly disheveled at the start of their announcement, led many pundits to speculate that Bill Clinton had intended to endorse Gillibrand with the President and the former Secretary of State but decided to back out or not show up at the last minute. Such speculation would continue to grow, but all questions would be answered later that day when...



I am thrilled to stand here today with the person who served as my right-hand-man for eight years. Today, we speak to you to announce our full-fledged support for Senator Mark Warner as he pursues the Democratic nomination. As President, Warner will continue in the Clinton and Gore tradition of fiscal responsibility and care for the most vulnerable members of our society. Warner 2016!
Former President Bill Clinton


Following these endorsements, all the talk surrounded Bill Clinton's last minute change of heart and the separate endorsements of the Clintons, rather than the actual endorsements themselves. One brave reporter had the chance to ask Hillary Clinton what was on everyone's mind.


Washington Post Reporter: Madame Secretary, what do you have to say about your husband backing out of your joint endorsement of Senator Gillibrand at the last minute and instead endorsing Senator Warner with Vice President Gore?

Secretary Clinton: All I'll tell you is that Bill will be sleeping on the couch tonight.


The split endorsements of four major Democratic Party figures revealed the lack of consensus in the party and led the way to many other endorsements...



Now, Massachusetts has a history of producing presidential candidates, but not exactly winning ones. Governor Dukakis and I, both sons of this great state, both lost presidential elections to Bushes, perhaps me a bit less embarrassingly so. However, that's about to change, because next November, Deval Patrick will follow in the footsteps of John F. Kennedy and put a Massachusetts man back in the White House, and he will have my full support!
Secretary of State John Kerry

Well, I'm no Massachusetts man, and if you wanna know the truth, I didn't vote for Mike Dukakis- I stayed home on November 8, 1988, bitter about having been beaten by Dukakis in the Primary. Now of course we know that my vote wouldn't have made a difference. However, I do have one thing in common with Secretary Kerry, and that is my unwavering endorsement of Governor Patrick in the 2016 Democratic Primary!
Vice President Joe Biden

Other Major Endorsements:
Kaine: Warner
Markell: O'Malley
Madigan: Gillibrand
Nixon: Warner
Bullock: Hickenlooper
Hassan: Gillibrand
Tomblin: Warner
Feinstein: Gillibrand
Boxer: Gillibrand
M. Udall: Hickenlooper
Bennet: Hickenlooper
Nelson: Gillibrand
Hirono: Gillibrand
Hannabusa: Gillibrand
Durbin: Patrick
Landrieu: Warner
Mikulski: Gillibrand
Warren: Gillibrand
McCaskill: Warner
Tester: Hickenlooper
Menendez: Patrick
T. Udall: Hickenlooper
Heinrich: Hickenlooper
Schumer: Gillibrand
Hagan: Warner
S. Brown: Gillibrand
Casey: Gillibrand
Leahy: Patrick
Manchin: Warner
Klobuchar: Gillibrand
Baldwin: Gillibrand
Sanders: O'Malley
McAuliffe: Warner
Castro: Gillibrand
Becerra: Gillibrand
Maloney: Gillibrand
Harris: Gillibrand
Crist: Warner
A. Brown: O'Malley
Whitmer: Gillibrand
Strickland: Hickenlooper
_____________________________________________________________________________

FIRST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE: Hickenlooper Triumphs; Patrick and O'Malley Flail



The first Democratic debate took place on May 26, 2015, at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire. Wolf Blitzer moderated the debate, and included topics ranging from economic progress under the Obama administration, immigration reform (which had not yet been reached), environmental issues, Social Security & Medicare, and gun control. Foreign policy was only briefly touched upon, due to extremely strong levels of national security in the first two years of Obama's second term and a period of relative peace following the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014, Obama's decision to stay out of the Syrian Civil War, and the gradual weakening of North Korea and Iran. The major foreign policy topic discussed was the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, with Gillibrand and O'Malley backing a two-state solution, Warner and Hickenlooper calling for increased aid to Israel, and Patrick's position remaining fairly ambiguous. Another topic notably absent from the debate was anything pertaining to same-sex marriage, with the Supreme Court ruling in June 2013 that struck down Prop 8 and DOMA and legalized same-sex marriage in all 50 states, both 5-4 decisions with Justice Kennedy providing the swing vote.

The most notable performance in the debate was Hickenlooper's. Widely underestimated as a lukewarm candidate with little chance of getting past Iowa, Hickenlooper articulately and convincingly presented his stellar record in Colorado and his plans for the nation. Meanwhile, O'Malley and Patrick spent the majority of the debate arguing with each other and presented very little of their plans for governing the nation. Gillibrand and Warner gave "do no harm" performances, remaining above the silly infighting between Patrick and O'Malley but not delivering the knockout performance of Hickenlooper.

CNN Poll 5/26/15: Who do you think won the Democratic presidential debate?

Hickenlooper 51%
Warner 22%
Gillibrand 21%
Patrick 4%
O'Malley 2%

Hickenlooper, as a result, saw a surge in the polls, nearly overtaking the popular Governor Patrick. Gillibrand and Warner remained in the lead.

Public Policy Poll 5/27/15: Who do you support in the Democratic Primary?

Gillibrand 29%
Warner 25%
Patrick 17%
Hickenlooper 15%
O'Malley 2%
Undecided 12%

[PolitiJunkie]

FIRST REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Huntsman & Rubio Impress, Thune & Jindal Surprise, Paul & Santorum Blunder



The first Republican debate took place on June 2, 2015 at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida. The debate was moderated by Brit Hume. Each candidate spent ample time criticizing the economic record of President Obama and, other than Huntsman, each endorsed the repeal of Obamacare. Beyond that, however, there was little consensus. Paul and Santorum spent quite a bit of time going at each other's throats. Santorum spoke about the necessity of passing a Federal Marriage Amendment and a Respect for Life Amendment to supersede the Supreme Court's 1973 and 2013 rulings, whereas Rand Paul said that although he certainly opposed both same-sex marriage and abortion, the focus should be upon strengthening the economy, substantially altering the United States' role abroad because the current role is "unconstitutional and unaffordable," and ending the war on drugs. Santorum retorted that Paul's "isolationist" and "pro-drug" views would weaken America; Paul denied these charges and called Santorum's far-right religious stances "harmful to the party." Santorum had the last word, calling Paul a "fringe candidate." Paul also came off very weak outside the bickering with Santorum, coming across as both unknowledgable and inexperienced regarding economic and foreign policy issues and failing to strongly articulate the conservative libertarian perspective.

John Thune and Bobby Jindal surprised pundits and viewers, coming across highly articulate, staying above the bickering between Paul and Santorum, and effectively conveying their not dissimilar platforms and the need to elect a Republican in 2016 to "save the economy from this Obamanation" (Jindal) and "halt the frightening rate at which the government has expanded under this administration" (Thune). However, Rubio and Huntsman came off the strongest. Despite an extremely weak bid in 2012, Huntsman was seen as a much more formidable candidate this time around due to the lack of any other somewhat moderate candidate and the hardly universal though indisputably present coalition of Republican voters who felt as though the only hope for Republican victory in 2016 was a pivot toward the center. Huntsman successfully presented him as a conservative who could work with both parties and get elected, fending off attacks from the other candidates that he wasn't conservative enough. His endorsement of gay marriage would have been a bigger issue if candidates like Rubio and Thune weren't trying to ignore it. Finally, Rubio, who many feared would be built up too high but ultimately deliver a lackluster debate performance, presented himself as the best face of the party and the candidate with the strongest vision going forward.

For the final question, Hume asked each candidate a question that had been asked in 2012: "if you were to receive the nomination, and you could only pick another man on this stage as your running mate, who would you choose?" Unlike in 2012, each candidate actually answered. Huntsman and Thune picked Rubio; Rubio and Jindal picked Thune; Paul and Santorum, in the only thing they agreed on the entire night other than their opposition to Obama and Obamacare, picked Jindal. Though the responses to this question were interesting to hear, most pundits and viewers seemed to believe that it meant very little due to the likelihood that the eventual nominee would pick a running mate outside this field of candidates.

Fox News Poll 6/2/15: Who do you believe won the Republican presidential debate?
Rubio: 35%
Huntsman: 21%
Thune: 20%
Jindal: 19%
Paul: 3%
Santorum: 2%

Public Policy Poll 6/3/15: Who do you support in the Republican primary?
Rubio: 24%
Thune: 19%
Jindal: 17%
Huntsman: 14%
Paul: 11%
Santorum: 9%
Undecided: 6%
____________________________________________________________________________


Ruth Bader Ginsburg: 3/15/33 - 6/11/15

On June 11, 2015, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away, ending speculation regarding her retirement date. Obama delivered a speech praising Ginsburg's service and legacy, along with the milestone she reached as the first Jewish female Justice. The next day, citing the importance of continuity and keeping a fully-functioning Court, Obama asked the Senate to quickly confirm his nominee for Ginsburg's replacement, Court of Appeals Justice Jacqueline Hong-Ngoc Nguyen. Nguyen was confirmed two and a half weeks later without filibuster in a 81-15 vote to become the first Asian-American Supreme Court Justice.



Jacqueline Hong-Ngoc Nguyen - 113th United States Supreme Court Justice

____________________________________________________________________________

August 15, 2015: A Surprise at the Ames Iowa Straw Poll - It's Rand!


Rand Paul             4,551 Votes              27.9%
John Thune               4,127 Votes             25.3%
Marco Rubio              3,654 Votes              22.4%
Rick Santorum          1,990 Votes              12.2%
Bobby Jindal              1,191 Votes              7.3%
Jon Huntsman          799 Votes                 4.9%


Once again, the Ames Iowa Straw Poll has proved its meaninglessness.
MSNBC Commentator Rachel Maddow
___________________________________________________________________________


George H.W. Bush: 6/12/24-9/7/15

Sadness overcame the nation on September 7 when former President George H.W. Bush peacefully died in his sleep. A week later, Bush's state funeral took place, with eulogies from George W. Bush, Jeb Bush, President Obama, and other national figures and world leaders that highlighted Bush's lengthy career of public service and his profound impact upon the nation.