New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter I: The Announcement

January 12, 2015
BREAKING---In a joint statement, Vice President Joe Biden and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announce that they will not be running for President in 2016.

I am proud and honored to have served the people of Delaware as a Senator for 36 years, and I am humbled to have served the entire nation as Vice President for the last 8 years, but it is time for me to go out on a high note and retire from politics, becoming a private citizen for the first time since 1973.
Vice President Joe Biden

It is time for a new generation of leaders to guide the Democratic Party to victory and the United States to peace and prosperity, and the party should be fielding candidates of the future, not people from its past. I look forward to a Democratic Primary with a wide field of candidates and campaigning for the eventual nominee.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Joe and Hillary have been vital members of my administration and have been two of the greatest American leaders of the last four decades. While I am sad to see them go, I look forward to finishing out the next two years with Joe, and I wish them both best of luck in retirement.
President Barack Obama

With Secretary Clinton and Vice President Biden out, the Democratic field was as wide as ever. Meanwhile, the Republicans began to mobilize for 2016 with a new sense of optimism in knowing that their nominee would not have to face the formidable Hillary Clinton in the general election. Who would step up to run?

[PolitiJunkie]

This is my first timeline, so I would greatly appreciate any questions, comments, suggestions, or other feedback as we go along! Predictions are welcome as well.

[NHI]

Looks good so far!

[Enderman]

nice intro, but it needed to be a little bit longer...but all around awesome!

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter II: Obama's Third Quarter

The first two years of Obama's second term were marked by a slowly increasing economy and a stalemated government. Obama had some major successes in foreign policy, however. With no end in sight to the Syrian Civil War, Obama's decision not to intervene was universally praised. Additionally, North Korean aggression seems to have quelled for the time being, and Iran's nuclear program has encountered difficulties. Obama's approval ratings in January 2015 are in the mid-fifties and unemployment is at 6.7%

2013 Gubernatorial Elections



New Jersey's gubernatorial election went as expected, with Christie remaining highly popular and Barbara Buono running a fairly JV campaign. As memories of Hurricaine Sandy had began to subside, the election wasn't as much of a landslide as many had expected, but Christie still won handily.

Chris Christie (R) 56.7%
Barbara Buono (D) 43.4%          

REPUBLICAN HOLD

Virginia's election was much more interesting. The election showed the two candidates in a dead heat up until election day, but ultimately, Cucinelli's extreme ideology prevented him from trumping McAuliffe despite being the more charismatic and energetic candidate.


Terry McAuliffe (D) 50.4%
Ken Cuccinelli (R) 48.3%           

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Midterms

Due to general contentment with Obama's foreign policy successes, a 6.9% unemployment rate for most of 2014, frustration with Republicans' unwillingness to compromise with President Obama, and a much better ground game on the part of the DCCC, the Democrats were able to break the six-year curse that generally results in opposite party gains during midterms. The Democrats were able to maintain their majority in the Senate, and made substantial gains in the House, only a few seats away from reclaiming a majority.

Senate Results



Notable Races

Alaska: She's baaaaaaaack! In what looked like it would be a safe hold for Mark Begich after Sarah Palin won the Republican nomination, ideology trumped popularity, sending Sarah Palin to Washington D.C. in a close election.

Sarah Palin (R) 51.2%
Mark Begich (D) 48.4%                

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Georgia: Jason Carter, a State Senator and the Grandson of U.S. President Jimmy Carter, after defeating Michelle Nunn in a fiercely contested Democratic Primary, defeated a charismatic but poorly organized Herman Cain who narrowly won a three-way primary against Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun.

Jason Carter (D) 54.7%
Herman Cain (R) 45.2%               

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Hawaii: In Hawaii's special election to replace Daniel Inouye, who died in 2012, Representative Colleen Hanabusa beat the appointed Senator, Brian Schatz, in the Democratic Primary, and went on to defeat former Governor and 2012 Senate nominee Linda Lingle handily.

Colleen Hanabusa (D) 67.9%
Linda Lingle (R) 32.1%                

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Iowa: With long-time Democratic Senator Tom Harkin retiring after five terms, this race seemed like it could be a major pick-up opportunity for the Republicans. Unfortunately, Republican voters made the mistake of selecting the severely conservative Steve King over Iowa's other Republican Representative, the much more moderate Tom Latham, in the Primary, and King went on to lose quite embarrassingly for a swing state like Iowa to the Democratic nominee, Bruce Braley.

Bruce Braley (D) 55.1%
Steve King (R) 44.8%                

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Kentucky: With Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell not only being seen as responsible for much of the stalemate in Washington, but also being embroiled in a sex scandal, it seemed as though the real contest in this race would be in the Democratic Primary, between Governor Steve Beshear and Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. However, in an announcement when many believed Beshear would be announcing his campaign, he actually announced his retirement from politics at the end of his gubernatorial term, and offered an enthusiastic endorsement of Grimes. A conservative third-party challenge emerged due to widespread discontentment with McConnell's victory in the low-turnout Republican Primary.

Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42.8%
Matthew Bevin (I) 38.7%
Mitch McConnell (R) 18.5%        

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Maine: Governor Paul LePage decided that instead of running for a second term, he would challenge incumbent Republican Susan Collins who he believed to be not conservative enough. As a result, Collins pursued an independent candidacy and handily defeated LePage as well as the Democratic candidate, Hannah Pingree, former Speaker of the Maine House and daughter of Congresswoman Chellie Pingree.

Susan Collins (I) 53.7%
Hannah Pingree (D) 39.4%
Paul LePage (R) 6.9%             

INDEPENDENT PICKUP

South Carolina: Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham faced a primary challenge, due to the belief that he wasn't conservative enough, from Richard Cash, a Tea Party-backed businessman. Cash narrowly defeated Graham in the low-turnout primary. Cash campaigned very incompetently and made a variety of gaffes during the general election, in which he was ultimately defeated by Vincent Sheheen, the State Senator who narrowly lost to Nikki Haley in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election.

Vincent Sheheen (D) 53.9%
Richard Cash (R) 46.1%         

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

South Dakota: After incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Johnson announced his retirement, and the two most promising Democratic candidates-- his son, Attorney Brendan Johnson, and former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-- both declined to run, former Governor Mike Rounds defeated businessman Rick Weiland.

Mike Rounds (R) 59.1%
Rick Weiland (D) 40.7%           

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Texas: In undoubtedly the most intense race and the biggest upset of the 2014 election season, popular Mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio defeated incumbent Senate Minority Whip John Cornyn. Castro's victory is largely credited to the DSCC's huge successes in increasing turnount amongst Hispanics and other Democratic groups.

Julian Castro (D) 50.2%
John Cornyn (R) 49.7%         

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

West Virginia: In the least surprising race not to feature an incumbent, Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito easily defeated Jeff Kessler, the President of the State Senate, to become West Virginia's first-ever female Senator and first Republican Senator since 1956.

Shelly Moore Capito (R) 61.9%
Jeff Kessler (D) 37.9%           

REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Other Senate Results

Alabama      Sessions 67.2%   Figures 32.8%           Republican Hold
Arkansas      Cotton 54.3%           Pryor 45.7%      Republican Pickup
Colorado      Udall 55.1%      Norton 44.8%           Democratic Hold
Delaware      Coons 59.2%           Kovach 40.7%           Democratic Hold
Idaho      Risch 62.4%           Minick 37.6%           Republican Hold
Illinois      Durbin 61.2%           Walsh 38.7%           Democratic Hold
Kansas      Roberts 64.1%           Brewer 35.7%           Republican Hold
Louisiana      Landrieu 51.2%   Landry 48.7%           Democratic Hold
Massachusetts   Markey 66.2%           Winslow 33.7%           Democratic Hold
Michigan      Peters 56.2%           Land 43.8%           Democratic Hold
Minnesota      Franken 63.8%        Bachmann 35.9%   Democratic Hold
Mississippi      Cochran 68.3%          Ellis 31.7%      Republican Hold
Montana           Schweitzer 66.3%        Edmunds 33.7%    Democratic Hold
Nebraska      Heineman 63.4%   Beutler 36.5%           Republican Hold
New Hampshire   Shaheen 55.3%   Guinta 44.7%           Democratic Hold
New Jersey   Booker 61.3%           Rivera 38.7%           Democratic Hold
New Mexico   Udall 59.3%      Berry 40.7%           Democratic Hold
North Carolina   Hagan 55.3%        Berger 44.7%        Democratic Hold
Oklahoma      Inhofe 63.4%           Rice 36.5%      Republican Hold
Oregon       Merkely 56.3%          Atkinson 43.7%   Democratic Hold
Rhode Island    Reed 79.8%      Fung 29.2%      Democratic Hold
South Carolina Special Scott   61.5%          Smith 37.7%           Republican Hold
Tennessee      Alexander 65.1%   Fitzhugh 32.6%   Republican Hold
Virginia      Warner 53.9%           McDonnell 46.1%   Democratic Hold
Wyoming           Enzi 74.6%         Massie 25.4%   Republican Hold

[PolitiJunkie]

Senate Composition:
Democrats 53 (+0)
Republicans 44 (-1)
Independents: 3 (+1)

House Composition:
Republicans 221 (-13)
Democrats 214 (+13)

Incoming Senate Leadership:
President Pro Tempore: Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Majority Leader: Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Majority Whip: Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Minority Leader: Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Minority Whip: John Thune (R-SD)

Incoming House Leadership:
Speaker of the House: John Boehner (R-OH)
Majority Leader: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Majority Whip: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
Minority Leader: Xavier Becerra (D-CA)
Minority Whip: Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)

[PolitiJunkie]

Gubernatorial Results

Though Democrats retained their Senate Majority and made narrow gains in the House, their biggest victories were in the gubernatorial elections, when many Republicans elected in blue or purple states in 2010 thanks to the Tea Party wave found themselves voted out in light of a different national mood. Democrats achieved pickups in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania, whereas Republicans achieved pickups only in Arkansas, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.


Alabama      Bentley 59.1%   Rogers 40.9%   Republican Hold
Alaska      Parnell 58.3%   Paskvan 41.7%   Republican Hold
Arizona      Carmona 49.8%   Bennett 49.4%   Democratic Pickup
Arkansas      Hutchinson 50.1%    Ross 49.7%   Republican Pickup
California      Solis 61.4%    Maldonado 38.5%   Democratic Hold    *
Colorado      Hickenlooper 57.1% Brophy 42.9%   Democratic Hold   
Connecticut      Foley 50.4%   Malloy 49.5%   Republican Pickup
Florida      Crist 51.4%      Scott 49.5%   Democratic Pickup
Georgia      Barrow 50.8%   Deal 49.2%      Democratic Pickup   
Hawaii      Gabbard 69.8%   Aiona 30.2%   Democratic Hold    **
Idaho         Labrador 68.4%   Alfred 31.6%   Republican Hold
Illinois         Madigan 55.2%   Rutherford 44.7% Democratic Hold ***
Iowa         Olson 51.3%   Reynolds 48.7%   Democratic Pickup   
Kansas      Brownback 54.4%   Taylor 45.6%      Republican Hold
Maine         C. Pingree 57.3%   Raye 42.7%      Democratic Pickup
Maryland      Brown 56.4%   George 43.5%   Democratic Hold   
Massachusetts   Brown 52.4%   Coakley 47.6%   Republican Pickup
Michigan      Schauer 52.8%   Snyder 46.4%   Democratic Pickup
Minnesota      Dayton 54.8%   Zellers 45.2%   Democratic Hold
Nebraska      Janssen 68.4%   Dubas 31.6%   Republican Hold
Nevada      Sandoval 56.3%   Miller 43.7%      Republican Hold
New Hampshire    Hassan 58.1%   Bradley 41.9%   Democratic Hold
New Mexico      Martinez 54.9%   King 45.0%      Republican Hold
New York      Cuomo 67.0%   Ball 33.0%      Democratic Hold
Ohio         Cordray 49.8%   Kasich 49.4%   Democratic Pickup
Oklahoma      Fallin 60.3%      Askins 39.7%   Republican Hold
Oregon      Kitzhaber 55.2%   Hanna 44.6%   Democratic Hold
Pennsylvania   Schwartz 54.8%   Corbett 45.2%   Democratic Pickup
Rhode Island   Raimondo 35.8% Doherty 29.2% Chaffee 24.7% Block 10.3%  Democratic Pickup
South Carolina   Haley 56.3%   Ott 43.7%   Republican Hold
South Dakota   Daugaard 63.3%   Heidepriem 36.7%    Republican Hold
Tennessee      Haslam 52.3%   Bresden 47.7%    Republican Hold
Texas         Abbott 52.3%   Davis 47.7%    Republican Hold
Vermont      Shmulin 64.8%   Salmon 35.1%   Democratic Hold
Wisconsin      Walker 53.1%   Barca 46.9%    Republican Hold
Wyoming      Mead 68.2%   Petersen 31.4%    Republican Hold

*In California, after Jerry Brown announced his retirement, a deal was struck between both the current and rising major players in the California Democratic Party to avoid a bitter and divisive primary between the rising stars. The resulting deal was: Hilda Solis would run for Governor in 2014, and Gavin Newsom would run for reelection as Lieutenant Governor. Barbara Boxer would retire in 2016 and Kamala Harris would seek her seat, and Dianne Feinstein would retire in 2018 and Gavin Newsom, term-limited in the Lieutenant Governorship, would seek her seat. Finally, Antonio Villaraigosa would run for Lieutenant Governor in 2018. Of course, there was the possibility that others would try to enter any of these races, but this deal ensured that none of these strong candidates would end up in the same race. This deal was widely known as "the California deal" and seemed very promising.

**Gabbard defeated Neil Abercrombie in a primary challenge.

***Pat Quinn declined to run; Lisa Madigan beat Bill Daley in the Democratic Primary.

Democrats: 26 (+6)
Republicans: 24 (-5)

[PolitiJunkie]

The mid-term results are meant to be exciting and, at times, surprising. However, if there is any result you see that is TOO unrealistic for you or simply doesn't make sense, please let me know so I can consider changing/fixing. Thanks!

[JerryArkansas]

One thing is this, Mark Darr won't run for senate in Arkansas, and the nomine would be cotton, and he would win

[PolitiJunkie]

One thing is this, Mark Darr won't run for senate in Arkansas, and the nomine would be cotton, and he would win

I struggled with this one for a while. Basically, I wanted to keep my numbers at a certain level, and I couldn't see any other practical place for a Democratic pickup to balance out the Republican pickup this would be. So my timeline is occurring in a world where Tom Cotton decides not to run for the Senate, so Mark Darr runs, wins the Republican Primary, and loses to Pryor in the general. I know it's certainly what won't happen in 2014 in real life, but I don't think it's TOO unrealistic (Cotton technically hasn't announced yet) that it substantially worsens the timeline.

[free my dawg]

The mid-term results are meant to be exciting and, at times, surprising. However, if there is any result you see that is TOO unrealistic for you or simply doesn't make sense, please let me know so I can consider changing/fixing. Thanks!

• Sarah Palin won't win statewide in Alaska. It's conservative, but there are a lot of swing voters and she's seen there as someone who quit on Alaska for the national spotlight. I could see this going GOP, but Treadwell is more likely to flip it than Palin ever will be.
• Broun and Gingrey are far from establishment types. They're actually the crazies of the race. Broun is a Tea Party darling, and Gingrey actually defended Todd Akin. If anything Cain would get the establishment vote.
• Bar a Democratic wave Castro won't win either. Texas is simply too conservative in time to elect him statewide. Maybe against Cruz in 2018, but he won't win here.

[PolitiJunkie]

The mid-term results are meant to be exciting and, at times, surprising. However, if there is any result you see that is TOO unrealistic for you or simply doesn't make sense, please let me know so I can consider changing/fixing. Thanks!

• Sarah Palin won't win statewide in Alaska. It's conservative, but there are a lot of swing voters and she's seen there as someone who quit on Alaska for the national spotlight. I could see this going GOP, but Treadwell is more likely to flip it than Palin ever will be.
• Broun and Gingrey are far from establishment types. They're actually the crazies of the race. Broun is a Tea Party darling, and Gingrey actually defended Todd Akin. If anything Cain would get the establishment vote.
• Bar a Democratic wave Castro won't win either. Texas is simply too conservative in time to elect him statewide. Maybe against Cruz in 2018, but he won't win here.

Thank you! I will definitely change the wording for Georgia. Palin was definitely one of my biggest apprehensions, but it's so much fun to have her in the timeline because she is...well...Palin. The way I look at the race most realistically panning out in this timeline is like the Sanford v. Colbert-Busch race that just wrapped up in South Carolina. Palin is disgraced, though not to the same extent as Sanford, and even though polling favors Begich due to people not wanting to state publicly that they will vote for Palin (hence why polling showed Colbert-Busch anywhere from +1 to +9, but she ended up losing by 9), but ultimately the conservatism of the voters allows ideology to trump personality. Add the fact that Begich is unpopular by 2014, and higher Republican turnout than Democrats for mid-terms, and it's not too too unrealistic.

With regards to Castro, I knew it was a risk, but Cornyn isn't absurdly popular in Texas, and current polling only shows him beating Castro by 7-points. Let's say Democrats do huge huge huge amounts of ground-game work to turn out Hispanics and Democrats, Castro doesn't run too far to the left, and Republicans take the race for granted. I don't think it's tooooo implausible.

[JerryArkansas]

If you need a Democratic senate pickup, how about in South Carolina, with Granm getting primaried by a tea party nut, and the guy who ran for governor in 2010 run for senate instead of challenging Niki again

[PolitiJunkie]

If you need a Democratic senate pickup, how about in South Carolina, with Granm getting primaried by a tea party nut, and the guy who ran for governor in 2010 run for senate instead of challenging Niki again

That's a great idea. I will change that. It hurts, because Graham is one of my favorite Republicans, but with his reelection and Scott's special election both happening in 2014, and Scott being the more conservative of the two, it makes sense that all the primary challenges will go to Graham. Aren't South Carolina politics the best?

[PPT Spiral]

Loving this so far, though I question why you left Brownback as unopposed in Kansas. He seems relatively vulnerable based on recent polling, so I'm sure that some Democrats would pounce at that opportunity.

[PolitiJunkie]

Loving this so far, though I question why you left Brownback as unopposed in Kansas. He seems relatively vulnerable based on recent polling, so I'm sure that some Democrats would pounce at that opportunity.

Good call. I did it because I couldn't think of a plausible candidate (with Brewer running for Senate, and Sebelius staying in Obama's cabinet until 2017), but I just figured someone out.

[NHI]

Great!!

[free my dawg]

Loving this so far, though I question why you left Brownback as unopposed in Kansas. He seems relatively vulnerable based on recent polling, so I'm sure that some Democrats would pounce at that opportunity.

Good call. I did it because I couldn't think of a plausible candidate (with Brewer running for Senate, and Sebelius staying in Obama's cabinet until 2017), but I just figured someone out.

If anything I'd switch Roberts out. He's susceptible to a primary challenge, but he's even having trouble fielding a primary candidate. Brownback is more susceptible than Roberts for a Brewer challenge.

[PolitiJunkie]

Loving this so far, though I question why you left Brownback as unopposed in Kansas. He seems relatively vulnerable based on recent polling, so I'm sure that some Democrats would pounce at that opportunity.

Good call. I did it because I couldn't think of a plausible candidate (with Brewer running for Senate, and Sebelius staying in Obama's cabinet until 2017), but I just figured someone out.

If anything I'd switch Roberts out. He's susceptible to a primary challenge, but he's even having trouble fielding a primary candidate. Brownback is more susceptible than Roberts for a Brewer challenge.

I ended up running Brewer against Roberts, and Chad Taylor, the DA of Topeka, against Brownback. Makes the most sense this way, because Brewer's name has been brought up as a possibility for both elections, whereas Taylor's name has only come up for the gubernatorial. Frankly, it doesn't matter, because no matter what Democratic candidates are in the general elections or how close the gap gets, these races are both going Republican.

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter III: The Open Field

January 21, 2015
BREAKING---NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo announces candidacy for President.

I am running for President because I have fought for every New Yorker, and now I intend to fight for every American. To fight for safer streets and tougher gun laws. To fight for a more sensible tax code. To fight for ethics reform, and better schools, and marriage equality, and environmental justice, and bringing families out of poverty. America, I will fight for you!
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo

Andrew Cuomo's entrance into the presidential race made him an immediate frontrunner. Many potential candidates backed away as a result of such an early announcement, but Cuomo was hardly a field clearer.

January 23, 2015-- NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand will not run.



Many expected Kirsten Gillibrand, who had began to build up a major profile following her landslide 2012 reelection, to enter the 2016 campaign. However, Gillibrand had different ideas.

As honored as I am by all the encouragement, I will not seek the Democratic nomination in 2016; I wish to remain in the Senate at this time. Andrew Cuomo is a great candidate, and while I will not unfairly tilt the race with an endorsement, I look forward to campaigning with the eventual nominee.
New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand



I'm In!
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper



The successful but relatively unknown Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper announced his candidacy on January 26, the first major surprise of the 2016 race. Could Hickenlooper become a dark-horse candidate?



Not in 2016, but vote Hickenlooper!
Montana Sen. Brian Schweitzer



Senator Brian Schweitzer was the next nay-sayer of the 2016 Democratic nomination, but he offered a very early endorsement of John Hickenlooper. Given that Hickenlooper is only one of two candidates in the race, some wonder if there were talks between the two popular Western governors before either decided to enter or stay out.



The last eight years have seen this country turn around, but there is still work to be done. Today, on February 2, 2015, I am announcing my candidacy to be the next President of the United States of America!
Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley



Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's announcement of his candidacy came as highly unsurprising, because despite universal skepticism about his viability in the primary or the general election, it seemed clear he had been planning a run since his second term as Governor began in 2011.



With Gillibrand out and the 2016 Democratic Primary shaping up to be a sausage fest, much speculation surrounded Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. Such speculation was put to rest on February 3, when both announced their intentions to stay out of the race.

Thanks, but no thanks.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren





Not this time.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar





I intend to be the moderate voice in this campaign; compromise is the only way to end the divisive exchange that is plaguing Washington!
Virginia Sen. Mark Warner



With Andrew Cuomo being the only true strong Democratic candidate to have announced his intentions, the big guns came on February 16 when Mark Warner, former Governor and incumbent Senator of Virginia, announced his candidacy.

As announcements wound down, most people felt content with the Democratic field, as everyone seemed to find their niche, whether it be with the South Atlantic moderate, the insurgent liberal Mid-Atlantic Governor, the skillful and compromising New Yorker, or the Western wildcard. However, there was still one candidate waiting to announce, a man who had largely been forgotten about since he quietly left public office in 2014…

We have come too far over the last eight years to see our country reverse now. There is a strong field of Democratic candidates, but I truly feel as though I am ready to lead this nation through the challenges that lie ahead.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick



Patrick's entrance cemented the Democratic field as small but strong. It would likely be a friendly but competitive race. Though Andrew Cuomo certainly occupied frontrunner status, Patrick and Warner were both very promising anti-Cuomo candidates, and there was even the possibility that Hickenlooper or O'Malley could pull an upset. The race for the Democratic nomination was on.

Public Policy Polling 3/1/15: Who do you support for the Democratic nomination?

Cuomo 31%
Patrick 21%
Warner 17%
Hickenlooper 5%
O'Malley 4%
Other/Undecided 22%

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter IV: The Field Clearer?

On January 22, 2015, just one day after Andrew Cuomo sent waves by announcing his candidacy for the presidency, another major announcement came, certainly timed to limit Cuomo's buzz.



The last eight years have seen our national debt double, our unemployment decrease ever so sluggishly, our standing in the world decline, and our moral fabric unhinge. Today, I am announcing my candidacy for the presidency of the United States so we can make America great again!
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio

"Marco Rubio 2016" had been a topic of discussion since the day he was elected to the Senate, and now, it was finally on the path to becoming a reality. Immediately after Rubio's announcement, many Republicans whose names had also been tossed around for 2016 announced their whole-hearted endorsement of Rubio.


Marco Rubio is the man to bring this nation forward!



In a surprising joint statement, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, announced their full-fledged endorsements of Marco Rubio, despite the fact that no other candidate had announced yet.




Former Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney, the mean beaten by President Obama in 2008 and 2012 respectively, did not need to wait to hear any other candidate announcements. The sense was that they wanted a quick and easy Primary and for Rubio to win the White House so he could restore dignity to the Republican Party and greatness to the United States.





Unsurprisingly, Jeb Bush endorsed his former protégée immediately. His brother and his father, both former Presidents, joined Jeb in this announcement.


Much speculation surrounded whether or not Chris Christie would become the anti-Rubio. However, given Rubio's immense appeal, and Chris Christie's ever-increasing unpopularity within the Republican Party, he saw the writing on the wall and announced that he would not run. Notably, however, he did not endorse Rubio.



I need to continue fighting for the people of New Jersey and finish out my term. When it is time for me to run for President, make no mistake, I WILL run for President--I am a young man. 2016 is simply not that time. Unlike many other members of my party, I will wait to see the full slate of candidates before I make an endorsement.
NJ Gov. Chris Christie





With Christie out, the moderate Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada was ready to endorse Rubio. The other popular Western Hispanic Republican Governor, Susana Martinez, joined Sandoval in the announcement. Both would be major forces in helping Rubio win the Western vote and the Hispanic vote should he win the nomination.

Marco Rubio may have been a very popular candidate, but he was not a field clearer. A few weeks after Rubio made his announcement, the buzz began to slow down, and some new candidates announced their intentions to run in 2016.




I am the only candidate in this race who will fight for the civil liberties of every American, while also maintaining a strong record of fiscal conservatism and a foreign policy centered around national defense and securing our borders rather than senseless intervention in conflicts abroad. With your help, we can achieve these goals!
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul




Legislative experience is great-- I have it. But I am the only candidate in this race with executive experience, and my time as Governor of Louisiana will help me immensely when I enter the White House on January 20, 2017!
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal





So what, we lost two elections, and now Republicans want to declare some sort of truce on social issues? I am running for President because I am the candidate who will keep American families strong and reinstate the moral backbone of this nation.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum





The Republican Party needs a moderate voice that can actually WIN the White House and ensure fiscal conservatism without wasting time on fringe social issues. Therefore, I am giving it another shot!
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman





I am in it to win it! Thune 2016!
South Dakota Sen. John Thune


More endorsements…



Bobby Jindal is the best candidate to win back the White House and win back America!
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

A strong Southern voice with vast executive accomplishments in Louisiana, Bobby Jindal has my full support.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich





Rick Santorum is the man to defend American values!
Alaska Sen. Sarah Palin

No, I will not enter the race. Rick Santorum has my whole-hearted support in 2016.
Former Congresswoman Michele Bachmann





Thune is the strongest conservative in this race, and I look forward to campaigning with him.
Former South Carolina Sen. and Heritage Foundation Pres. Jim DeMint

THUNE! THUNE! THUNE!
Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin






Hell yeah I'm supportin' my son! Rand is the right choice for 2016!
Texas Congressman Ron Paul



What once seemed like it would be Rubio's race is now gearing up to be hotly contested. While Rubio is still a clear frontrunner, there are a variety of hats in the ring, and it seems as though certain candidates- namely the most surprising entrance, John Thune- could give Rubio a run for his money.


Public Policy Polling 3/1/15: Who do you support for the Republican nomination?

Rubio 41%
Thune 13%
Jindal 9%
Santorum 4%
Paul 3%
Huntsman 2%
Other/Undecided 28%

[Tayya]

A big applause for the plausible but exciting chain of events and details on the mid-terms.

[PolitiJunkie]

A big applause for the plausible but exciting chain of events and details on the mid-terms.

Thanks so much! That was definitely the most arduous part to research and type up so far, so I'm glad you enjoyed.



Does anyone have any feedback on the January/February 2015 announcements on the Democratic and Republican sides? As usual, I'd love to hear any questions, comments, or predictions!

[Tayya]

I have a hard time seeing Jim DeMint choosing bland Thune over Rubio, Jindal and Santorum.

Can we get a list of the House races changing hands and retirements?

[PolitiJunkie]

I have a hard time seeing Jim DeMint choosing bland Thune over Rubio, Jindal and Santorum.

Can we get a list of the House races changing hands and retirements?

Let me think about the DeMint endorsement.

And I will have the list of notable House races tonight.