Ukraine Crisis

[Famous Mortimer]

Don't know if anyone else has mentioned it, but while this is happening, Alexei Navalny has been placed under house arrested and forbidden to use the internet.

[Famous Mortimer]

The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

But that is what it is about, the possibility of the base on hostile soil.

If you were an ethic Russian official sitting in Moscow 100 years ago today you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have go through the territories filled with Poles, Finns, Belorussians and Ukrainians, that we govern before the set foot on Russian soil.  In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them.

If you were an ethnic Russian military official sitting in Moscow 30 years ago today, you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have to get past our Allies in East Germany, Czechoslovakia  and then Poland.  Even then, if they enter the Soviet Union, they will have to get past Belorussia and the Ukraine before they step on Russian soil.   In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them."

Today?

I'm not defending Putin, but I do understand why he might be a tad worried.

Of course, no one is going to invade Russia ever.

As this incident shows, even when they give people reason to take military action against them, no one does.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

[Famous Mortimer]

The President, the Prime Minister, and the leader of the largest governing party in Ukraine are all native Russian speakers from Eastern Ukraine.

The chances of their government taking hostile action against Russian Ukrainians is about the same as the chances of Obama launching a genocide against White people.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

You don't like double standards? Then why do you oppose aggressive American military action but defend aggressive Russian military action?

This is the second time I am pointing out your own double standard.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

If you don't support Russian military action and you don't like propaganda then why are you buying into Russia's obvious propaganda about their reasons for invading?

Again, because you don't actually mind propaganda, you just have a knee jerk hatred for America or in this case, a movement you perceive as being American backed even though it wasn't. Additionally, you only believe America was behind it because, again amusingly, Russian propaganda.

Furthermore, most people supporting the revolution have been very honest about the fact that far right elements are involved. No one has denied it. We've just denied the ridiculous claim that all the protesters are Nazis or that the entire movement can be summed up as Nazis.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Some of them had snipers shoot random protesters. Others didn't. It's obvious which side are the good guys.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Some of them had snipers shoot random protesters. Others didn't. It's obvious which side are the good guys.

Neither, given that said protesters also overthrew a democratically-elected government they happened to dislike, then proceeded to strip away protections for non-Ukrainians in Ukraine. It's just that the oligarchs behind Euromaidan are pro-Western and want to join the EU, so they must be the good guys! CNN and the New York Times told me so! The only solution is for the Ukrainian conflict to become a class struggle (class was disappointingly a non-factor in the revolution) and for Ukraine's proletariat to overthrow both the pro-Brussels thugs and the pro-Moscow thugs.

And I never said that America was behind the protests (though I'm sure that Obama has something to do with the far-right rich kids trying to bring fascism back to Venezuela).

No "protections" were stripped away. Russian was removed as an official language, which it had only been for a couple of months. I personally think that was a dumb move but it doesn't endanger Russian speakers anymore than they were endangered from 1991-2013.

[Famous Mortimer]

Anyway, Russia and the new Crimean government are both acknowledging that Crimea is nominally Ukraine at this point. My guess is nothing happens on the ground until the referendum at the end of the month. Best case scenario would be a strong majority in favor of independence that the Ukrainian government decides not to contest too hard.

If the ballot is seriously disputed, all bets are off.

[Famous Mortimer]

Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.

This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

The new government is almost guaranteed to become unpopular. Just like Yushchenko did. When that happens though, at least they won't send snipers to shoot the protesters.

The next next election will result in a left-wing candidate coming to power. Hopefully the voters aren't stupid enough to make it Yanukovych again.

[Famous Mortimer]

Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.

This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

The new government is almost guaranteed to become unpopular. Just like Yushchenko did. When that happens though, at least they won't send snipers to shoot the protesters.

The next next election will result in a left-wing candidate coming to power. Hopefully the voters aren't stupid enough to make it Yanukovych again.

1. I doubt that the new government would be above violence.
2. Yanukovych is not remotely left-wing, nor is there a coherent or organized left in Ukraine.

1. What are you basing this belief on? Wishful thinking mostly.
2. Well, not to your standards, no. A candidate campaigning against austerity (regardless of how sincere) will win though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Seriously. This was an interesting thread on a serious topic. The mods ban Opebo but allow this sh**t? Ridiculous.

There would be no sh**t if people stopped taking the bait. Don't feed the Snowtroll guys, its not that hard.

Sorry. I couldn't help myself, like I said, it was such a glaring double standard I had to point it out. Plus my Facebook feed is packed with lots of otherwise semi-rational leftists condemning the "Nazi coup." These are people I know in real life who definitely aren't trolls, just grossly misinformed. There's even people citing the American ambassadors tapped phone call as evidence American engendered the coup and it's like seriously, did you even listen to it? It pretty much proves the exactly opposite, that America wanted Yanukovych to stay in power for stability's shape. In fact, she even went all Moderate Hero and condemned Klitschko for no good reason.

[Famous Mortimer]

The reading of RT's website (formerly Russia Today) is very interesting in these times. That is to say if you have the judgment to read between the lines, which not all of us seem to have...

What? Just that it's pro-Russian or is there something more? Too lazy to read a bunch of articles. Also, there doesn't even seem to be that many...maybe that's what you meant.

[Famous Mortimer]

It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

[Famous Mortimer]

It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Putin and the Russians would take McCain more seriously than they ever would Obama.

McCain would take a much firmer stance and wouldn't let the Russian dictator push him around.

That's not a serious answer. "Because McCain is good and Obama is bad!"

What would McCain do policy-wise to make the Russians take him seriously?

What would he do policy-wise to make sure Putin didn't push him around?

Again, try not to include policies that would cause WWIII.

[Famous Mortimer]

Haha. Restart missile defense. Because flushing a bunch of our own money down the toilet will really show those Russians.

[Famous Mortimer]

Seek a mental health professional.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.

[Famous Mortimer]

Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea.

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?

Supporting the Crimeans in their quest for independence from the evil Neo-Nazi Ukrainians of course.  But he won't annex Crimea any more than he will annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.

Yeah, it actually serves his purposes more for Crimea to remain "disputed" in the sense of Abkhzia, Transnistria, etc., then for it to be officially absorbed into Russia in a way that's internationally recognized.  If Ukraine includes territory whose status remains disputed like that, then it's less likely to be admitted into NATO, the EU, etc.

Another thing is that Pro-Russian politicians in the Ukraine are dependent upon Crimea's pro Russian vote. Without it, Ukraine is slanted towards being pro-west.

Not really.

I mean, it helps them certainly but it's not absolutely necessary.

I know Yanyukovych would have lost without Crimea but Yanukovych was basically a known attempted murderer.

If there was a pro-Russian candidate who didn't also advocate killing innocent people he would be able to win quite easily.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, has everyone seen the final wording of the Crimea referendum? Beyond being vague, it's literally meaningless. To paraphrase: Crimea is independent but it is part of Ukraine by virtue of agreements.

Huh?

No matter if "yes" or "no" wins, the Russians can claim their side won.

"Oh, they said 'no' that means Crimea did not agree to be part of Ukraine"

"Oh, they said 'yes' that means Crimea is free to declare independence"

Obviously both answers could also be interpreted as pro-Ukrainian as well.

[Famous Mortimer]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.

Yasser [inks]ing Arafat got a nobel prize. It is a joke.

You don't really understand why Yasser Arafat won.

[Famous Mortimer]

It looks like Crimea is going to retain it's republic status within Russia. Will it be the only republic with a Russian majority?

Also, Sevastopol is going to be a federal city, which puts it on par with Moscow and St. Petersburg.

[Famous Mortimer]

Tymoshenko advocated mass slaughter of Russians in leaked phone call.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In any case, even if it weren't a Russian fake, Yulia ain't in power.

This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.

[Famous Mortimer]

The interim Ukrainian government just announced they were raising home gas prices 50% to make the IMF happy.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stupid obvious question I'm ashamed not to know and I should have asked early but probably a lot of other people were afraid to ask as well.

Is there actually a difference between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Beyond language, it's pretty much entirely self identification, isn't it?