Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[ERvND]

Hmm. 15 posts in a row. Nobody seems to be interested in these elections ...

I registered on this forum just to tell you that I am indeed very interested in these topics and read your thread on a daily basis.

Somehow, information on Austrian elections is very hard to gather, even if you are German-speaking. In consequence, this thread serves as a central information vault for Austrian election-related news for me. Please continue your great work; you have at least one reader.

[ERvND]

If the draft wins by a good margin in 3 weeks (let's say 60-40), then the polls could change dramatically.

Is the draft really such a big issue in Austria? If it was, shouldn't it already be reflected in the polls?

Right now, it seems to be possible for some people to vote SPÖ, and still support the draft. I don't see why this should change in such a dramatic way after the referendum.

[ERvND]

I wonder how much more of a joke the Lower Austria SPÖ can become ...

Take a look at the state election results, and you see that from 1979 on - when they got more than 45% - the SPÖ lost ground in every election (except in 2003).

The pattern is similar to that in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, even though more extreme. This indicates that there are fundamental (demographic, social?) trends underway which are unstoppable for Social Democrats in the affected regions.

[ERvND]

Interesting that there were so many rural districts with an SPÖ majority. The directly neighbouring regions in Germany (Berchtesgaden etc.) are so stone-black that I see no opportunity for something like this to happen, ever.

[ERvND]

I guess if SPÖ and ÖVP are already down by 16% combined NOW, both parties will end up with less than 30% in the actual election on May 5 ...

Compared to the neighbouring German districts, the SPÖ is still doing incredibly well in Salzburg. In Berchtesgaden, it's more like 10% SPD, not 30.

[ERvND]

So, basically nobody wants the FPK in a coalition in Carinthia ...

Does it matter? I thought they have a system where every party represented in parliament gets seats in the government (I can't remember the English term for it right now)?

[ERvND]

Only 25% for the FPK, that's hardly believable for me. I know, scandals and Stronach als a populist alternative. But Carinthia is still the FPÖ's heartland. In Bavaria, for example, there were also times when the CSU had one scandal after the other, yet it never dropped below 43%.

[ERvND]

But Carinthia was also the SPÖ's heartland before the rise of Jörg Haider there in the early 80s.

The comparison between Bavaria and Carinthia is not very applicable, since CSU has been the traditional majority party of Bavaria since 1950s, while in Carinthia the traditional majority party was SPÖ.

To be perfectly honest, I didn't know that. I assumed the nationalist/Greater Germany-movement had always been dominant there, not least due to anti-Slowenian sentiment.

However, to recover their strong position lost over 30 years ago will still be tough for the SPÖ.

[ERvND]

Nice results, but the polls were worth sh**t again, with SPÖ and FPK each 10% off.

Czech Republic, Israel, Italy, now Carinthia - it's not a good year for pollsters so far. In Lower Austria, on the contrary, they were quite on the spot.

[ERvND]

New Tyrol state election poll in the "Kronen Zeitung" today:

This sounds like fun. If these were the actual results, what would happen? A black-green-red coalition like in Carinthia? Or black-red plus one of the "free" lists?

The ÖVP is bleeding badly, by the way. Ten years ago, they were at 50%.

[ERvND]

And today seems to be "Tyrol-Day", because I just found the new TT-Karmasin poll:

With these numbers (ÖVP+SPÖ at 50%), of course, the aftermath of the election will be far less interesting: The black-red coalition would most likely simply continue, with a heavily splintered opposition.

[ERvND]

Liste Fritz 155
Grüne 139
SPÖ 119
Gurgiser & Team 109
vorwärts Tirol 83
FPÖ 72
Team Stronach 67
Tiroler VP 8

[ERvND]

My result:

SPÖ 194
Grüne 158
ÖVP 86
FPÖ 85

[ERvND]

Well, it was great while it lasted.

After a ten-year reign and a big scandal, this sharp decline in SPÖ support was to be expected. And still, the SPÖ results were much better than they'll ever be in neighbouring Bavaria. I still can't wrap my head around the fact that there are rural communities with an SPÖ majority (even in this election), whereas in the directly adjacent towns on the German side of the border, the SPD would be lucky to get 10%. 

[ERvND]

If I were SPÖ leadership, I wouldn't be happy about that.

Black-green doesn't have to be a bad thing for the Social Democrats. In Hamburg, it ended with an absolute majority for the SPD.

[ERvND]

The results of the university elections (only the Technical Uni Graz is missing now):

The RFS is remarkably weak. I won't complain, of course... but it's always been my impression that nationalist fraternities are still quite powerful among Austrian students (at least compared to Germany), and that these "Burschenschaftler" played a vital role inside the FPÖ.

[ERvND]

The national Greens decidedly refuse to enter a coalition with Team Stronach, unlike the Greens in Salzburg. They cite that Stronach is too autocratic, has problems with core/vital institutions like unions and his "crazy" Euro-ideas as main reasons.

That's what they say now, but when the opportunity arises to acquire high-paid government posts, maybe this opposition might dwindle quickly.

[ERvND]

Always had a healthy interest in psephology and am currently working on a Nate Silver style model for the UK electoral scene, but will be testing out a few things from that methodoloy on the Austrian and German elections (and I'll post links when they're up).

Very good. Please complete your model and become the "Nate Silver" of the UK and Europe. The Silver style models are great, but their restriction to US politics is a huge disadvantage.

[ERvND]

Many polls that are released such as Gallup only have samples of 400 people, with a 5% margin of error. The ÖVP is only 3% behind. So, there's still everything possible and the ÖVP could still overtake the SPÖ on election day.

That's true, but the whole point of such models is to minimize the margin of error. If the predicted result is close, this doesn't have to mean the race is still wide open; it might simply mean that the end result will be close. US presidential elections, for example, are always very close percentage-wise, yet they seem to be quite predictable with the new models.

In this special case, the most convincing factor for me is the fact that the SPÖ's lead has been slight, but stable for the past few months. There's no poll so far where the ÖVP is in the lead, so there is also no real argument why it should suddenly happen on election day.   

[ERvND]

Betting organisations currently offer a quota of 1:6 for a NEOS entry into parliament.

If NEOS rises to 4% support in the next weeks and the bookies are not changing their quotas and lower them, I could invest quite a high sum on it ...

Unfortunately, the bookies have automatic algorithms in place, so the odds will instantly collapse as soon as money starts pouring in. If you really want to make a profit, you'll have to bet now.

I wouldn't recommend it, though. Those kind of bets are silly. In the end, they come down to the prediction of an exact result (3,9 or 4,0% will make a difference), which is much harder than, say, predicting the strongest party.

[ERvND]

My result:

SPÖ 111
Grüne 104
KPÖ 94
PIRATEN 53
FPÖ 1
NEOS/LIF -15
BZÖ -19
ÖVP -34
Team Stronach -48

[ERvND]

Turns out that buying parliamentary status - and, thereby, access to all those TV debates and events - was actually a big mistake by Stronach. He'd rather remained silent...

Soon we'll see to what extent his abysmal performance hurts him. If it does, this will be a bad thing, as the protest vote will revert back to the FPÖ. 

[ERvND]

Then again, it seems to be a rule for Austrian politicians to do just what they have ruled out right before.

In this case, if black-blue get a majority (unlikely right now) and Spindelegger has the chance to become chancellor, I think he wouldn't resist.

[ERvND]

Are there any political allegations over the poacher shooting? Is the government held responsible by the media?

[ERvND]

Excerpts (it has ca. 20 pages):

TL;DR

I can't imagine a 16 year old reading through this whole crap. Such flyers are expensive, but not very effective.