2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

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Gonzaga finally leaving the WCC for a bigger conference seems to be the obvious one to me. Either they go to the PAC-12 (makes sense geographically or the Big Twelve, where they were rumored to be going earlier, with a slim possibility of the Big East also there).

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Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

No, it doesn't align with the values or athletics of the WCC. Gonzaga would prefer fewer conference games and could threaten to leave with expansion.

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

California Baptist has a better shot begging the Big West despite not being a public school. They are teetering on an island, and the Big West has the travel geography that a program of CBU's standing can better manage. But I really doubt the Big West wants them either.

Still think Gonzaga going to one of the PAC-12/Big Twelve/Big East seems plausible.

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https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1659296128343371789

Speculation swirling around UConn heading to the Big Twelve.

Ideally, UConn would either work out an arrangement with the ACC that would allow them to play football there, while being in the Big East for all other sports, or stay an Independent in football.

Other than West Virginia, there is no regional partner for UConn in the Big Twelve, and that isn't changing anytime soon.

That said, Big Twelve Basketball might become more interesting. Regular Kansas/UConn games would be fun.

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My proposal:

Atlantic Coast Conference
- Clemson
- Duke
- Georgia Tech
- Florida State
- Miami (switch spots with Maryland)
- North Carolina
- North Carolina State
- South Carolina
- Virginia
- Wake Forest

Big East
- Boston College
- Cincinnati
- Louisville
- Maryland (switch spots with Miami)
- Notre Dame
- Penn State
- Pittsburgh
- Rutgers
- Syracuse
- West Virginia

Big Ten
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Minnesota
- Northwestern
- Ohio State
- Purdue
- Wisconsin

Big West
- Colorado
- Brigham Young
- Iowa State
- Kansas
- Kansas State
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- Utah

Southeastern Conference
- Alabama
- Auburn
- Georgia
- Florida
- Kentucky
- Louisiana State
- Mississippi
- Mississippi State
- Tennessee
- Vanderbilt

Southwest Conference
- Arkansas
- Baylor
- Central Florida (yes I know this makes little sense, but they need a spot, its a short flight across the Gulf)
- Houston
- Rice
- Southern Methodist
- Texas
- Texas A&M
- Texas Christian
- Texas Tech

Pacific Ten
- Arizona
- Arizona State
- California
- California-Los Angeles
- Oregon
- Oregon State
- Southern California
- Stanford
- Washington
- Washington State

I notice UConn got left out of your Big East and your ACC...so where do the Huskies go?

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Big 12 reportedly eyeing Colorado and Memphis: https://247sports.com/article/big-12-expansion-eyes-memphis-substantive-talks-with-colorado-pe-210957842/.  TBH I don't think the Big 12 has a clue on who they're going to get.

Colorado and Memphis both make sense for the Big 12 ,though getting Nebraska back would make more sense than adding Memphis. I haven't seen any indication that Nebraska would like to leave the Big Ten, but the Cornhuskers are out of place there, and their departure would allow the Big Ten to add a school that would be a better fit for them, such as Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, or Duke/North Carolina.

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And today's rumor is that Colorado is going to the Big 12, but the second team is Arizona, not Memphis.

Call me a traditionalist, but if the Big 12 wants to take two additional schools, one of the them being Colorado, the second should be SMU.

I think Arizona is a fantastic fit for the Big 12. Should cement the Big 12 as a top basketball conference. It would provide regional rivals for BYU and Colorado, and would fit in very naturally with the Texas and Oklahoma schools in a southwest-culture way.

This also could be a sign that Arizona State may be an eventual candidate for Big Ten expansion. If the Big Ten establishing itself as the national conference with teams in every region is inevitable, then ASU is a perfect add by being in a top 5 and growing population base full of Big Ten alumni retirees. I don't think it's a coincidence that ASU was just invited into the Association of American Universities (as close to a prerequisite of Big Ten membership as there is). ASU might not have the most attractive teams right now, but the potential upside is huge.

This also makes sense that Arizona is pushing ahead alone on this move Big 12. They see the writing on the wall that ASU would leave them behind to join the Big Ten, and have decided jump off the sinking ship first and find a decent landing ground. I love all aspects of it.

Nebraska would be a better fit, being a prior member of the Big 12, and not really being a fit in the Big Ten. Arizona would be a better choice than Colorado right now, I suppose, as despite Colorado's prior Big 12 membership, it's probably easier for Arizona to build rivalries with other schools in the Confrerence (especially without Nebraska also returning), than it might be for Colorado.

Arizona/Kansas will be a great on-court rivalry, and it shouldn't be too hard to build up rivalries with Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston and TCU (plus SMU if and when the Mustangs join at a later date).

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San Diego State is officially leaving the Mountain West.

San Diego State gave the Mountain West written notice this week that the school "intends to resign from the Mountain West Conference," sources told ESPN.

In a letter, the school asked the Mountain West for a "one-month extension given unforeseen delays involving other collegiate athletic conferences beyond our control." As of now, there does not appear to be an invitation to San Diego State from a Power 5 conference.

The Aztecs seem likely to end up in the Big Twelve or Pac-12, but there's decent argument in favor of joining the American Athletic Conference if no invite from either Power Five conference comes in, or maintaining Independence in football, and joining a non-football conference in other sports (though I can't think of a fit...unless the WCC were to drop their private school only requirement for the conference).

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Colorado is meeting today to discuss a formal move back to the Big Twelve.

The future of Colorado in the Pac-12 is in flux, as the school is discussing the future of athletics in a university board of trustees meeting Wednesday regarding "athletics operations."

The school is mulling a potential move to the Big 12, according to sources, and Wednesday's meeting represents a potential step in the process for university officials to approve a move there, according to sources. Colorado has discussed athletics in a private session multiple times in recent months, but sources indicate the tenor of this meeting is different.

Now if Nebraska could get the hint and also move back to the Big Twelve, we might actually have a halfway decent Big Twelve (even without Oklahoma and Texas).

[NewYorkExpress]

Big Twelve votes to bring back Colorado after the 2023-24 season.

The Big 12's presidents and chancellors voted unanimously on a conference call to accept Colorado as a new member on Wednesday night, sources told ESPN.

The vote marks one of the final remaining steps to be completed for Colorado to leave the Pac-12 for the Big 12, a move that's hurtling toward being finalized on Thursday.


Colorado still has not formally applied for Big 12 membership, another of the final formal steps remaining for it to join the league. But Wednesday night's Big 12 vote marks a necessary step toward it joining the conference, a move that's increasingly becoming an inevitability.

A Colorado departure from the Pac-12 would come after the 2023-24 season and coincide with the end of the Pac-12 television deal. That would mean that Colorado would not have to pay any exit fee to the league.

Colorado is expected to formally apply for membership on Thursday, the same day that the school's Board of Regents is holding a "special board meeting" that sources say includes a vote on the move to the Big 12. Sources expect the final steps to be taken on Thursday and a deal to be formalized.

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Florida State 247 insiders say there is a lot of rumbling about the Seminoles pulling out of the ACC in the next 3 weeks. If this happens, it 90% means that they and Miami are headed to the Big Ten. Absolutely crazy stuff.

Neither Florida State nor Miami are academic fits for the Big Ten, which seems to at least somewhat value academics on some level.

They'd be better off pursuing some combination of Vanderbilt/Duke/Notre Dame/Stanford.

In fact, if I were them, I'd pursue Stanford instead of Florida State or Miami, as it gives them another major media market on the West Coast (San Francisco), gives USC and UCLA a regional partner, and is a better academic school than Florida State or Miami (and for that matter far better than Nebraska.)

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The Big Twelve is looking to add another school.

While the odds favor Arizona, I'm personally hoping the school in question is Nebraska. (or alternatively, Memphis, I suppose.)

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ACC also looking to expand.

Other than Notre Dame, or a shock move like Florida or South Carolina leaving the SEC, I can't think of any school that fits the geographic profile and is a fit.

Maybe UConn?

[NewYorkExpress]

ACC also looking to expand.

Other than Notre Dame, or a shock move like Florida or South Carolina leaving the SEC, I can't think of any school that fits the geographic profile and is a fit.

Maybe UConn?

Crazy prediction (kinda): Stanford, Cal. Maybe Washington and Oregon if those don't go to the Big 10.

I don't see the Washington and Oregon as interested in the ACC.

They might try and fight the Big Twelve for Arizona (Duke and North Carolina would love that) or make Notre Dame some truly massive offer that the Fighting Irish just can't refuse.

Other than that, I'd guess UConn, and maybe West Virginia (Big Twelve), Buffalo (MAC) and Rutgers (Big Ten).

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Maryland and/or Rutgers to the ACC?

Maryland would be more likely than Rutgers given the emphasis that school places on Basketball (and the ACC being slightly stronger in theory than the Big Ten in basketball). But it's very unlikely, unless Maryland (or Rutgers) is really unhappy in the Big Ten and we don't know about it.

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https://twitter.com/JWMediaDC/status/1684925270761820160
Of that list, Colorado State,  San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV and Fresno State would all make sense for the PAC-12. I'd expect to see most of those programs get an official invitation (maybe UNLV or Fresno State doesn't make the cut),

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Rumor is Big 10 adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson this week.

I'm very skeptical. If ACC teams are available, the Big 10 would be going for North Carolina and Virginia.

I mean, I guess it's possible that UNC and UVA have chosen the SEC over the Big 10, while Florida State and Clemson chose the Big 10 over the SEC, but that would be pretty surprising.

UNC isn't going anywhere without Duke.

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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-commish-presents-potential-tv-deal-to-school-leaders-with-no-agreement-being-reached-per-reports/

Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented details for a potential media rights deal to leaders from member institutions at a meeting on Tuesday, though ultimately no agreement was reached, according to multiple reports. Another meeting is planned soon with both sides remaining hopeful a deal can be reached.

According to ESPN, the proposed deal was streaming-centric through Apple and would incentivize tiers with an upside if certain subscription numbers are met. The agreement would start in 2024-25 and begin with a relatively low payout relative to what league members had hoped. Compensation would incrementally improve, with high-end estimates that would be competitive with the Big 12 and ACC in the future.

Judging by that deal, I would expect Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State and possibly Stanford to announce their exits imminently. (the only one of that group without an obvious destination is Stanford, though I think the Big Ten would take them if they asked.)

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The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

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Utah, Arizona and Arizona State could be announced as Big Twelve members as soon as tomorrow according to Jason Scheer.

Although it is not completely finalized yet, sources indicate that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are all likely to join the Big 12. One source said that it would have to fall apart for the three schools not to make the move and the ideal plan for the Big 12 is to make the biggest possible impact, which is announcing all three at once. Although it is not set in stone, there could be an announcement as soon as Friday.

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I'll say it again- the Ivy League should embrace NIL and move up to the FBS, and Stanford should join it if the Big 10 doesn't invite them. Same for Rice.

It's never going to happen. The Ivy's are stodgy and melodramatic about amateurism. In fact, I'll wager that the Ivy League is more likely to leave the NCAA and go and do their own thing than SEC and Big Ten are, so they can go back to players not getting compensated for playing.

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I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

Both Oregon State and Washington State fit in nicely in the Mountain West or American, so it's not like they don't have somewhere to go if the PAC-12 really does collapse.

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Here's an article about a possible Mountain West/Pac-4 or 2 merger. The MW schools in "unattractive" markets must be over the moon about the possibility of lucking into being a member of the 5th best FBS and the top Pacific/Mountain time zone conference.

The New Mexico, Wyoming, and Nevada's of the MW would have never been added by the Pac-8 if it survived somehow. It would have only added schools from the most attractive markets like San Diego State and UNLV.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2023-08-05/san-diego-state-sdsu-mountain-west-pac-12-conference-realignment-merger-oregon-state-washington-cal-stanford

"But what if the Pac-12 schools want a smaller conference with membership that augments media rights value?

Or put another way: What if they don’t want all the Mountain West schools?

Mountain West bylaws contain procedures for suspending members but not outright eliminating them, although rules can be changed with nine of 12 votes from its presidents. The founding Mountain West members would not be in immediate jeopardy, sources indicated, but San Jose State, Nevada and Hawaii might be.

A less-callous method to cull numbers is creating strict, minimum standards — financial and otherwise — for the merged league that might deter membership or lead to expulsion for schools failing to meet them."

I think in that scenario, the only Mountain West School that gets axed is Hawaii. The others all have something else going for them. San Jose State has access to the San Francisco Media market and Nevada has secondary access to the Las Vegas media market (with UNLV). It's also plausible that Air Force is allowed to join Army and Navy as an Independent in this scenario, I can't picture the four remaining PAC-12 schools wanting a Service Academy in their conference.

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Will Hawaii remain in the Big West for most sports?

Yes, or they'll join the WAC.

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Will Hawaii football remain in the Mountain West?

They might drop to the WAC if they are booted out of the Mountain West.

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Hawaii wants to remain FBS. A new Aloha Stadium will be built to FBS standards. Would Conference USA or independence be a possibility?

The WAC's been making noise about moving back to the FBS lately last time I checked.