Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread (user search)
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  Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Rate the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tossup/tilt D
 
#5
Tossup/tilt R
 
#6
Lean R
 
#7
Likely R
 
#8
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 262

Author Topic: Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread  (Read 48049 times)
NewYorkExpress
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« on: January 28, 2022, 03:09:31 PM »

Likely R if Biden or another D is the incumbent, Lean D if Trump or another R is the incumbent.
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NewYorkExpress
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Posts: 24,817
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2022, 03:38:33 PM »

Likely R if Biden or another D is the incumbent, Lean D if Trump or another R is the incumbent.

Eh, Biden is going to be incumbent president in 2023 unless something happens, then it's Kamala.

Regardless, with 60% approval rating, Beshear has indeed a pretty good shot. Especially with a weak opponent.

I can easily see McConnell rigging an impeachment trial once Republicans have the Senate and House after 2022 to remove Harris and Biden and install whoever the Speaker of the House is.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2022, 07:16:59 PM »

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).



My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.
McConnell is DOA in his primary in 2026. He's extremely unpopular even in his state, there's just never been a credible primary challenger to him, which there WILL be in 2026.

LOL

Tell me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics without telling me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics.

There has never been a "credible primary challenger" to McConnell for a reason. Any such person would be destroyed by the McConnell machine before they had a chance to get off the ground. His unpopularity in the state is totally irrelevant. Anyone who still believes otherwise after 2014 or so is not paying attention.

I could easily see Matt Bevin attempting a primary challenge against McConnell again. I'm sure there's still bad blood there from Bevin's 2014 attempt.
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NewYorkExpress
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Posts: 24,817
United States


« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2023, 05:36:30 PM »

Honestly I'm not even sure why Republicans are so invested in flipping KY. Beshear has little actual power as all his vetoes can easily be overridden. He's basically a popular figurehead for the state, like some kind of constitutional monarch or ceremonial head of state. Just leaving him be would be for the best for the state, as it gives us stability and someone Democrats can point to with pride while Republicans can still implement all their policies.

Probably the real reason is to set up Cameron to be McConnell's successor. But I was honestly surprised he ran, as I thought it was an unnecessary risk for him; Cocaine Mitch is probably retiring soon, and Cameron could have been next in line as AG without risking a humiliating defeat in this race. Maybe a secondary motivation is to eliminate Beshear as a threat for a future spot on a Democratic presidential ticket as a popular governor of a red state, and perhaps there's even an element of revenge motivating them. After all, Trump said he'd be the biggest loser ever if Bevin lost. Still, if I were them, I'd just have thrown up a sacrificial lamb candidate and not cared much if Beshear won. The GOP might be getting greedy here; if Cameron loses, which now looks likelier than not, he'll be tainted and less likely to win a primary to be McConnell's successor.


Even with a loss here, I think Cameron would still be the front-runner in a primary to succeed McConnell in 2026. He's the kind of candidate the NRSC would probably try to clear a primary field for (African-American, recent statewide officeholder).
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