AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[coloradocowboi]

2024 becomes a game of chicken for the Democrats.

I suspect despite her objectively terrible favorables with Democrats she would still hurt a potential D candidate more than a GOP one.

The fact is I can't see many AZ Lake voters voting for her and in a 3 way race they are enough.

Her "base" is probably moderate dems, old McCain republicans. 

Do we have polls showing her favorability with how people voted in 2022? That will give us a better idea of who she would hurt. 

I think what you’re gesturing toward is just how bad her electoral prospects are period. Most republicans won’t vote for her. But where I disagree is most democrats won’t either, if she has a 10% approval in the party. I’m general, she will be lucky to get 10% of the total vote. I would assume she knows this and either doesn’t run or runs only in the case of a far right maga gop nominee

[coloradocowboi]

I should also note I’ve worked for Kyrsten Sinema on 3/4 of federal campaigns, and known her personally since she came to speak at the CWA at CU Boulder in 2010. What people really need to know about her is that she has no ideological agenda besides egotism and thinking she’s the best. Even when she was a “progressive”, she was totally self obsessed and actually more annoying cuz she was more strident and preachy. Ultimately she’s a fake who believes nothing except that she’s the best. Personally, I think this tendency manifests in her pro rich ppl policies. She has finally become the elite she always wanted to be, no need to make it more complicated that that.

And you’d be surprised who would be exactly like her if they had her level of arrogance/the false assurance of running in a swing state.

[coloradocowboi]

Sinema's only hope is if the democrats nominated someone like Martin Quezada and republicans nominated Andy Biggs/Mark Lamb. Then she could successfully frame herself as the "sane" option. If the democrat is a generic democrat like Stanton or even an establishment friendly progressive like Gallego she's doomed

The other thing here is that both Gallego and Stanton are likely to prove broadly acceptable to most Democrats.  So you’re unlikely to see a ton of left-wing protest votes against Stanton or a ton of moderate protest votes against Gallego assuming a reasonably competent campaign and no major unforeseen skeletons in the closet.  Even a Stanton vs. Gallego primary isn’t gonna leave the loser’s supporters going “screw this, now I’m voting for Sinema.”  She’s too widely despised to even make a good protest vote option.

People who claim that Gallego is "too far left" are especially in for a rude awakening.

I also think Stanton is too. He wouldn't go far in a primary. What's the argument? He's slightly more palatable to conservatives? I dk if that's even true. If anything, it's following the Kyrsten Sinema logic that being a moderate hero just entails taking more money from divisive industries unpopular with our base.

[coloradocowboi]

People are aware of Sinema's actual voting record (which is about as "bipartisan" as Pat Toomey's), right? The only way McConnell/SLF/NRSC get behind her in some sort of GOP-flavored independent nominee scenario is if she changes her entire voting record. Has there been any indication that she’s actually willing to do that?

She's dead in the water. Both sides will use her as a Rorschach blotch to psychologicaly war against the other, but if she even runs she won't get half of what Betsy Johnson did. Forget base, who is even her donor base? They already got what they needed out of her. The NGOs and unions will back Gallego, and the corporate PACS will back the Republican. She appeals to no one, and has already returned any investment value beyond what she'll make as like the petroleum association's next spokeswoman or whatever horrible thing she decides to do in the private sector

In other news, an unofficial announcement from Gallego just hit my inbox. I am truly dismayed this guy is gonna be spamming me all throughout 2023

[coloradocowboi]

Imagine being delusional enough to think you can win as independent.

She basically just needed to act and vote like Mark Kelly, who's far from a socialist, and run unopposed for the Democratic nomination and be favored in a general election. Instead, all the grandstanding and attention-seeking for nothing.

Not for nothing, for her she made bank from wall street and private equity firms in exchange for her gutting bills and blocking progress https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1601260245342629889 She'l also definitely get a cushy job in the private sector as a lobbyist or something after she comes in third in the general and likely hands some far-right extremist this seat in a three-way race.

Or maybe she helps hand the seat to Gallego by taking votes from the far-right extremist.

She’s just a Rorschach blotch at this point. Nobody can even say for sure if she will run

[coloradocowboi]

I don't get why she'd think pandering to big business is more lucrative politically than just being a normal Democrat like Mark Kelly who isn't hated by the base and is rolling in cash anyway.

Because she gets grossed out talking to people who don't have at least an MBA, makes her staffers handle all interaction with poors, and takes election advice from ppl like Mitt Romney lol

But to beat my dead horse, I also think she is a fundamentally selfish person who doesn't care too much about public opinion or re-election anyway. The party will continue somewhere else

[coloradocowboi]

She’ll get like 4% if the vote max when all is said and done. If she even bothers.

Well, increasingly looks like she's delusional enough, doesn't it?

You can't pay campaign staff and admakers with delusions.

She's gonna have a hard time recruiting talent.

Does anyone else wonder if she might just try to run as an R tho? These comments today are just so cringe. I think they will burn even more bridges.

[coloradocowboi]

She’s moving from Act Blue to something called Anedot. She is honest to god on the verge of launching a third party center right campaign. This is truly insane

[coloradocowboi]

Why is she still on ActBlue?

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1642935284915400704

The real question is what kind of democrat small donor would give to her at this point? Clearly somebody or she would be off ActBlue already.

[coloradocowboi]

The problem with the GOP rn is that people like Masters, Vivek, DeSantis appeal only to people completely immersed in media that nobody else consumes or cares about. They are essentially 4chan memelords, Babylon bee pundits, which is extremely useful in a GOP primary but likely to turn off lots of voters they need to win a general election. And because they receive so much positive feedback by being 4chan memelords in their own internet and media bubbles, they actually don’t understand that the avg american perceives the character they are playing as an incel at best and a neonazi at worst.