Rate CO-08

[coloradocowboi]

I've spent most of my life in the district, was born there, watched my dad win three county-wide elections in Adams County by large margins. Anybody acting like it's an auto GOP pick up bc of "R+3" is a straight-up fool. Even if the GOP picks this up, which I expect they will, it's a rental at best.

Adams County is working class but still has many of the other demographic features that makes CO hard for the GOP. Very Mexican-American, and the whites there are getting more educated and liberal over time. It also has a large Black population in Aurora, but I would assume that's in the 6th CD.

Greeley is also far from safe terrain for the GOP. So what they really have is just exurban communities on I-25 that also will get bluer with increased population and diversity.

Honestly, with the right candidate, this would be a democratic leaning seat. That candidate is in the race, Adams Co. Commissioner Chaz Tedesco. But he leans a bit left for the donor establishment, so they've rallied behind Yadira Caraveo, a medical doctor and state rep.

From what I've seen thus far, she'll win the primary and lose the general. She appeals to party hacks, liberal women, and "intersectionality" freaks just enough to be able to bury Tedesco in money. But she won't excite any of the low-propensity voters whose turnout is essential to winning this district.

However, the GOP can also mess up their chances by nominating Lori Saine, and I bet they will bc the COGOP is so crazy.

Hypothetical matchups:
Tedesco v. Mainstream R: Tilt R
Caraveo v. Mainstream R: Lean R
Tedesco v. Saine: Lean D
Caraveo v. Saine: Tilt D

My rating is Tilt R because my assumption is Caraveo will be the nominee.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1511847629654827014

This bums me out because Tedesco is def a better fit for the district. But, I still think this district is Tilt or even Lean D because the GOP looks increasingly likely to nominate Lori Saine (who is not sane) and throw this district right down the tubes. I voted Tilt R too, but I think that the COGOP is just wayyyy far to the right of the state as a whole. Their only and unlikely hope is that one centrist drops out and the other attracts independent voters in the primary.

[coloradocowboi]

Lean R. The type of voters in this district are not the kind of voters who approve highly of Biden, though it def helps the Dem is Hispanic

Who are the “type of voters” in this district you are invoking? What does that even mean?