Rate CO-08

[lfromnj]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/11/22/8th-congressional-district-colorado/

This is the new Colorado district and it truly is one of the most competitive districts in the nation .

“CD8 is the Dems’ worst nightmare because, yes, it’s a swing district, but it’s blue collar,” he said. “They are not dyed-in-the-wool, limousine liberals.”

Colorado Treasurer Dave Young, a Democrat who used to hold a competitive state House seat in Greeley that’s within the 8th District, said a moderate candidate will fare best in the district. “I don’t think extreme approaches are going to work — on either side of the aisle,” he said.

A new swing district created for the purpose of "hispanic influence" based in large portions of Adams that snakes all the way up to Greeley in Weld County.

It was Obama +7.9 in 2012, Trump +1.8 in 2016 and Biden +4.6 in 2020. Unlike the rest of the front range this area hasn't trended very Democratic  due to it being the lowest education part of this region.

And yes I obviously kept the Obama numbers here before everyone just saw the 2016 and 2020 numbers and goes #TRENDZ.

I seriously have no idea why  national Democrats decided to complain about their 5th being Biden +9, but in the end it just got pushed down to Biden +4.6

Also might as well include the fact it was +1.7 Hickenlooper, +1.9 Polis and +2 Bennet

[Mr.Phips]

Tilt R in 2022.

[Roll Roons]

I'm saying Tilt R because of the kind of year that I expect 2022 to be, but I agree with Miles that it'll likely be a perennial swing district throughout the decade. Maybe the "Bloody Eighth" moniker will have to be dusted off...

Or we could get a new version of the legendary Dold/Schneider and Guinta/Shea-Porter battle royales.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt D

[Chips]

Pure toss-up, could go either way in a neutral election. I'd say tilt R as of now.

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe R in 2022, Safe D in 2024 (assuming 2024 is a D wave at the House level).

[coloradocowboi]

I've spent most of my life in the district, was born there, watched my dad win three county-wide elections in Adams County by large margins. Anybody acting like it's an auto GOP pick up bc of "R+3" is a straight-up fool. Even if the GOP picks this up, which I expect they will, it's a rental at best.

Adams County is working class but still has many of the other demographic features that makes CO hard for the GOP. Very Mexican-American, and the whites there are getting more educated and liberal over time. It also has a large Black population in Aurora, but I would assume that's in the 6th CD.

Greeley is also far from safe terrain for the GOP. So what they really have is just exurban communities on I-25 that also will get bluer with increased population and diversity.

Honestly, with the right candidate, this would be a democratic leaning seat. That candidate is in the race, Adams Co. Commissioner Chaz Tedesco. But he leans a bit left for the donor establishment, so they've rallied behind Yadira Caraveo, a medical doctor and state rep.

From what I've seen thus far, she'll win the primary and lose the general. She appeals to party hacks, liberal women, and "intersectionality" freaks just enough to be able to bury Tedesco in money. But she won't excite any of the low-propensity voters whose turnout is essential to winning this district.

However, the GOP can also mess up their chances by nominating Lori Saine, and I bet they will bc the COGOP is so crazy.

Hypothetical matchups:
Tedesco v. Mainstream R: Tilt R
Caraveo v. Mainstream R: Lean R
Tedesco v. Saine: Lean D
Caraveo v. Saine: Tilt D

My rating is Tilt R because my assumption is Caraveo will be the nominee.

[Minnesota Mike]

Safe R in 2022, Safe D in 2024 (assuming 2024 is a D wave at the House level).

The idea a district can go from safe one party to safe the other in 2 years is asinine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Safe R in 2022, Safe D in 2024 (assuming 2024 is a D wave at the House level).

The idea a district can go from safe one party to safe the other in 2 years is asinine.

Some have been that way in the past due to incumbents retiring but this obviously isn't one.

[Xing]

Lean R for 2022, Lean D for 2024.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1511847629654827014

[Meatball Ron]

It was Obama +7.9 in 2012, Trump +1.8 in 2016 and Biden +4.6 in 2020. Unlike the rest of the front range this area hasn't trended very Democratic  due to it being the lowest education part of this region.

And yes I obviously kept the Obama numbers here before everyone just saw the 2016 and 2020 numbers and goes #TRENDZ.

Fair to show the Obama numbers, but by that logic, equally hypocritical to exclude Obama '12 numbers. 2008 was, of course, not normal

[lfromnj]

It was Obama +7.9 in 2012, Trump +1.8 in 2016 and Biden +4.6 in 2020. Unlike the rest of the front range this area hasn't trended very Democratic  due to it being the lowest education part of this region.

And yes I obviously kept the Obama numbers here before everyone just saw the 2016 and 2020 numbers and goes #TRENDZ.

Fair to show the Obama numbers, but by that logic, equally hypocritical to exclude Obama '12 numbers. 2008 was, of course, not normal

I included 2012 numbers.  I didnt include 08

[Meatball Ron]

It was Obama +7.9 in 2012, Trump +1.8 in 2016 and Biden +4.6 in 2020. Unlike the rest of the front range this area hasn't trended very Democratic  due to it being the lowest education part of this region.

And yes I obviously kept the Obama numbers here before everyone just saw the 2016 and 2020 numbers and goes #TRENDZ.

Fair to show the Obama numbers, but by that logic, equally hypocritical to exclude Obama '12 numbers. 2008 was, of course, not normal

I included 2012 numbers.  I didnt include 08

Wow, I have no idea why I read 2012 as 2008. Disregard...

[Schiff for Senate]

Safe R in 2022, Safe D in 2024 (assuming 2024 is a D wave at the House level).

The idea a district can go from safe one party to safe the other in 2 years is asinine.

Some have been that way in the past due to incumbents retiring but this obviously isn't one.

Agreed. Technically ND is both a state and an at-large district, so one could kind of argue ND counts as a 'district' even though it's really a state. Well...looking at senate elections, it was D+37 in 2004 with popular incumbent Democrat Byron Dorgan seeking reelection (every county went blue). In 2006, the next ND senate race, popular incumbent Democrat Kent Conrad won by 39 points (again, every county went blue). 2010, chronologically the next senate election in ND after Safe Blue 2004 and Safe Blue 2006, was the complete and total opposite: Dorgan bowed out, and while Sabato's had called ND safe blue in 2004, it and all others who made forecasts said safe R, as popular Republican governor John Hoeven ran and the outcome was R+54 - a 90-point rightward swing between two senate races 6 years apart (and a 93 point rightward swing between two senate races for different seats in the same state just 4 years apart). Of course, as you said, this is far from the case here. But it's happened before.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1511847629654827014

I saw her bio:
"Pediatrician. State Legislator. Daughter of immigrants. Latina.
Running for Congress in #CO08."

I love her already!

[Nutmeg]

I can't trust any political analysis that includes the phrase "limousine liberal."

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1511847629654827014

This bums me out because Tedesco is def a better fit for the district. But, I still think this district is Tilt or even Lean D because the GOP looks increasingly likely to nominate Lori Saine (who is not sane) and throw this district right down the tubes. I voted Tilt R too, but I think that the COGOP is just wayyyy far to the right of the state as a whole. Their only and unlikely hope is that one centrist drops out and the other attracts independent voters in the primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean R. The type of voters in this district are not the kind of voters who approve highly of Biden, though it def helps the Dem is Hispanic

[coloradocowboi]

Lean R. The type of voters in this district are not the kind of voters who approve highly of Biden, though it def helps the Dem is Hispanic

Who are the “type of voters” in this district you are invoking? What does that even mean?