Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DINGO Joe]

While things haven't gone well for Russian officers, a Ukrainian officer just got promoted.

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1515667971267608582

[DINGO Joe]

Fresh copium just dropped. Unable to explain why the mighty Russian army failed to take Azovstal despite relentless bombings, they have now made Osama's hideout in Tora Bora tier info graphics, including the biolabs lol.

lmao any idea what the words say? i'm curious as to what they think the Ukrainians have underneath some random shed in the middle of what looks to be a cow pasture?

Nazi stuff, biolabs, and antifa/BLM abortion clinics. What else?

It looks like they're growing marijuana on one level.

[DINGO Joe]

This Jacksonville network really should consider firing their headline writer

'One of the worst experiences of my life’: Ukrainian missionary comes to Jacksonville

Wow, Jacksonville's even worse than I imagined.

[DINGO Joe]

Lyman:
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1517368138039500800

More from Lyman:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517495771096133633?s=20&t=D8wjdrW...

Ukraine's goal in war--Blow Up all Russian military equipment

Russia's goal in war--blow up every hospital

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481

Again, not knowing anything about military weapons and tactics.  It seems that between this and things like the Phoenix they're creating a whole different Ukraine Army.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517787243984924673
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517788123010420736
This is another big problem for the Russians in the battle of Donbas. Not only have they only seen marginal gains around the edges but they are seeing these gains while suffering a causality rate that is not sustainable. They won’t be able to pull off any successfully encirclement of Ukraine while losing 400-500 men per day not to mention all the equipment lost as well

The equipment losses may be manageable depending on how quickly their older stockpiles can be brought online. Personnel losses are another matter, but full mobilisation could solve that problem, although it comes with its own risks and doesn’t make up for loss of experienced troops.

Are the stockpiles well maintained?  Can the Russians overcome a crappy supply chain?

Also, the Ukrainians are receiving much better longer range artillery with some highly accurate munitions, like the Excaliber.  Sure it'll take a few weeks to have that fully in place but that enables the Ukrainians to engage weapons before they even reach the front lines.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517489879634042882

A Ukrainian strike of Russian military vehicles parked next to buildings in Eastern Ukraine.  Quite notable for their accuracy.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Big L for Ukraine if its capability to fight is impacted by Russian actions like this (assuming this is true, of course).

That could be the next escalation: shipping convoys.

Interesting idea. Not necessarily a bad one either.
It's, after all, in the American national interest if weapons are obtained by Ukraine.

The Russian Navy has effectively blockaded shipping in and out of Ukraine, so I doubt much war material is coming in via the Black Sea. The Ukrainians aren't able to do much about it since in 2014 they lost 3/4 of their Navy when the main Ukrainian naval base in Sevastopol was taken over. Dozens of officers, several ship captains, and even two commanders of the Ukrainian Navy Sergei Yeliseyev (a Russian born in Moscow) and Denis Berezovsky (who was commander for one day) defected to Russia.

Yeah, I don't know what they're all talking about.  The same ships have been parked at the Port of Odessa since the beginning of the war.  Everything is rail and road at this point.

[DINGO Joe]

Regarding the commercial movement of goods I found a couple of recent articles that suggest nothing is moving via sea in Odessa and instead there are efforts to to create land rail and rail/river (Danube) supply chains with obvious bottlenecks. 

https://theloadstar.com/struggling-ukrainian-shippers-could-find-a-way-out-for-their-cargo-via-bulgaria/

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/21/1094119446/russia-is-strangling-one-of-ukraines-most-important-ports


Given that the rail and road lines in Western Ukraine are functioning, though probably overburdened, I just don't see why an entity would be trying to smuggle in supplies along the coast or up the Dniester.  Though if you run across something, I'd be interest to hear about it.

[DINGO Joe]

What is the chance that Putin declares full mobilization?

WTF is he going to mobilize?

[DINGO Joe]

I don't think Ukraine is behind the fires in Russia. I think it's some collection of oligarchs who are trying to make Putin crack.  Just pure conjecture.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, if the Ruskies weren't so busy tanning their balls maybe they could do something about it.

[DINGO Joe]

Another "accidental" fire? The Muscovites should know not to smoke near ammunition/oil/etc.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1519148785972264963?s=20&t=1GWV83...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519146076011433986

This one seems highly likely Ukrainian.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Isn’t that what Russia spends on its military yearly?

It's about half of Russia's annual military budget.

Well, once you subtract the Russian "overhead" it's probably more than the Russian actual budget.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1520093374757363713

I guess Russia has a "program" for their May 9th parade and the parade is going to be quite a bit shorter than previous years 131 vehicles vs 197 last year.  Some notable aircraft will be missing too.

[DINGO Joe]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

And that population is disproportionately elderly.

The USSR had 195 million people in 1940, so Russia is 25% smaller than the USSR in WW2 but given the change in the population pyramid it has about 66% fewer people in the 18-30 age range than in 1940,  Of course, Ukraine has a similar population pyramid issue, but they are larger than in 1940.

[DINGO Joe]

Gerasimov spent less than 3 days on the front before yeeting out of there.
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744417715527680
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744421356195842

And today a military warehouse in Belgorod that was storing.....smoke? seems to have had a containment issue.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1520731476307943424

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reports-fire-military-facility-near-ukraine-border-2022-05-01/

Besides the explosion in Belgorod, the Governor of Kursk says a railway bridge used by freight trains was damaged by sabotage.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reports-fire-military-facility-near-ukraine-border-2022-05-01/

Besides the explosion in Belgorod, the Governor of Kursk says a railway bridge used by freight trains was damaged by sabotage.

Photos have surfaced of said bridge:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520785148228292608?s=20&t=4ZUpB88bqku...

The tracks are still there, so I see no problem.  Russia should send a munitions train across it.

Is there a Stalag 13 in Kursk by chance?

[DINGO Joe]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

Well, I think it's self-evident that NATO expansion renders Russia even more of a second-rate power than before. And Russian leaders care about that.

And if Ukraine is in NATO, then that means that lots of American troops, bombers, and other military assets could stationed a mere 360 miles from Moscow. And Russia will have to devote more resources to the center heartland. All this is basic. Forget about what we can assume will happen; think about what *could* happen. Think about how much options America has to force Russia to re-orient itself.

No matter how it unfolds, Russia loses on net at least in the short-term, and probably loses big.

Rezekne (Latvia) - Moscow (Russia) - 674 km
Kharkiv (Ukraine) - Moscow (Russia) - 761 km

Anything else?

NATO is Dangerously Exposed in the Baltics
The current NATO military presence in the Baltics leaves a lot to be desired. It's doubtful, the merits of placing loads of US military assets in such an exposed area. It smacks of putting all our eggs in one basket.
If Ukraine is in NATO, on the other hand...it is in fact Kaliningrad that might be exposed.
I notice you have not at all refuted my points about options and what NATO *can* do if Ukraine is among its members.

  Well, that article was published on 2/02/22.   I'd say data since then shows that NATO was not so exposed.

[DINGO Joe]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

Well, I think it's self-evident that NATO expansion renders Russia even more of a second-rate power than before. And Russian leaders care about that.

And if Ukraine is in NATO, then that means that lots of American troops, bombers, and other military assets could stationed a mere 360 miles from Moscow. And Russia will have to devote more resources to the center heartland. All this is basic. Forget about what we can assume will happen; think about what *could* happen. Think about how much options America has to force Russia to re-orient itself.

No matter how it unfolds, Russia loses on net at least in the short-term, and probably loses big.

Rezekne (Latvia) - Moscow (Russia) - 674 km
Kharkiv (Ukraine) - Moscow (Russia) - 761 km

Anything else?

NATO is Dangerously Exposed in the Baltics
The current NATO military presence in the Baltics leaves a lot to be desired. It's doubtful, the merits of placing loads of US military assets in such an exposed area. It smacks of putting all our eggs in one basket.
If Ukraine is in NATO, on the other hand...it is in fact Kaliningrad that might be exposed.
I notice you have not at all refuted my points about options and what NATO *can* do if Ukraine is among its members.

  Well, that article was published on 2/02/22.   I'd say data since then shows that NATO was not so exposed.

How so?
If the idea is that the Russians were, well, overrated, I'll note it's very bad practice to just assume in planning that your opponent will make a ton of mistakes, and the US military brass know that.

Well, I think Russian performance goes well past a bunch of mistakes to a vast reassessment of capabilities

[DINGO Joe]

Day 69 of the special military operation to denazify Ukraine because Hitler was a Jew:

A day after Lavrov's controversial statemens, the Russian Foreign Ministry doubles down on the "Nazi Jews" narrative. Russia seems hellbent on burning the bridges with Israel now.


https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1521424337538064384

https://twitter.com/AOL/status/1521438036537622529

The Russian government of 1904-1905 called, it says this is rank incompetence.
(Good lord. I was 25% joking about Israel likely not wanting to mediate the next round of peace talks, when they come. What a move this is. Wouldn't blame them if they refused now, out of hand.)
Hubris must find a very ready home for itself in the Kremlin right about now.
Is this some kind of misguided gambit to get support in the Arab countries?

The most brain dead part is where they claim Jews were complicit in their own extermination in the Holocaust.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1521451290710220800?s=20&t=f1jxfxXr...

Just preparing  the Russian public for May 9th when they will declare war on.....Israel!  To denazify it of course.

[DINGO Joe]

Is it more or less near certain Russia is going to further escalate their presence on May 9th?

Escalate their presence on May 9th?  No, they have nothing to send into Ukraine on May 9th.

They might declare a mass mobilization but how they would train them and what equipment they would give them looks like a total CF.  On what timeline they could increase presence is a fantasy at this point.

[DINGO Joe]

Another day, another oil depot

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521817789614411776

[DINGO Joe]

Is it more or less near certain Russia is going to further escalate their presence on May 9th?

Escalate their presence on May 9th?  No, they have nothing to send into Ukraine on May 9th.

They might declare a mass mobilization but how they would train them and what equipment they would give them looks like a total CF.  On what timeline they could increase presence is a fantasy at this point.

They have a lot of ex-soldiers and conscripts who’ve done a year’s service who could be called up. There are signs that they’ll be forced to resort to older equipment, but they also have a lot of that. There are rumours that the majority of it is defective due to corruption, but even if, say, 90% of tanks in reserve were defective, they’d still have thousands of working tanks in reserve. Oryx tracks 600 Russian tanks lost (according to visual confirmation), so I wouldn’t be surprised if they’d lost about 1200. As with most equipment, Russia has the numbers, and that means tank crews are more valuable than what they’re driving.

More importantly, I fear the commentariat (along with posters here) is losing sight of the fact that Russian losses do not happen in a vacuum. The Western weaponry being sent to Ukraine (with the exception of the ex-Soviet stuff) is currently small in quantity and comes with its own logistical/training challenges. Russia also has a relatively intact military-industrial complex; Ukraine does not, and even as other countries if other countries make up that capacity, it was never as wide-reaching as Russia’s to begin with (e.g.. Ukraine maintained and upgraded their most advanced weapons, but often didn’t produce them indigenously since the fall of the USSR). This means Ukraine could wind up facing ammunition issues for, say, it’s S-300 batteries that Russia is likely to avoid.

What do conscripts get trained on?  It's my understanding that they just do menial labor and barely even shoot guns much less get trained in actual tactics. Is there and NCO structure to actually train them?  How many people in Russia are trained to drive those tanks?  Plus, what do you do with conscripts, feed them into existing depleted units or try to form new ones? 

Ukraine has a learning curve to, but they've been mobilizing for two months now and it seems that some long range artillery may already be in use particularly around Kharkiv.  Yes, they have limits but they seem to be to train and receive training from actual trainers.  Russia, outside of a few elite units,  merely seems to have a fodder system of training.