You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though
she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.
white republicans in the district won it for Carter
they heard she was a Hillary superdelegate and that AOC and Stacey Abrams were supporting her. Her ads were saturating TV leading up to today
Probably not. Doubt there were 7800 Republicans who voted in the runoff, much less 7800 white ones.
7800 was 8.9% of the vote total of 87,806 in so far... the district is 39.9% not black (206k of a 538k RV electorate) and had registered voters of 37% Republican and other (195k) according to Louisiana SOS voter stats.
if those 200ishk turned out at 5% (there were other races on the ballots like tax renewals that draw that turnout), that would be 10k votes. Now would Carter win those at such a rate? 90-10 would result in a 8,000 vote difference. He probably didn't get 90-10 but 70-30 was realistic.
Well, Louisiana provides very detailed demographic info of who voted post election, though it won't be available for a few weeks
But in the open primary 11,711 Republicans claimed a ballot that could vote for a candidate in CD2. A reasonable estimate is that 1000 of those Rs weren't white and 200 of them didn't vote for a CD2 candidate. So that leaves 10500 white Rs in the open primary.
For the runoff, overall turnout declined by about 7% but largest declines in turnout were in St. Charles (25%) and Jefferson (15%) which happen to be the whitest parts of the district, with St. Charles being the only white majority jurisdiction. It's likely that white R turnout declined substantially in the runoff.
While you know demographics you don't know exactly who people voted for but you can look at vote shares from open to runoff and infer some of way different blocs broke.
For example in Ascension, Troy got 34% in the first round while KCP and Chambers combined for 42%. In the runoff KCP won 52-48 meaning if KCP got 100% of the Chambers vote then Troy won the "others" (Mainly R vote) by a little under 60-40. Obviously, if KCP got less than 100% of the Chambers vote, then the R split was even closer.
In Orleans, Troy got 39% in the first round while KCP and Chambers combined for 52%. All the Rs in Orleans combined for 6% of the vote, so if Carter had won all of the R vote in Orleans combined with his vote he would have topped out at 45%, however he got 53% so he did pull a substantial chunk of Chamber voters in Orleans
Also, after I first posted, the goal posts moved with late returns and Carter won by 9200 votes and no, white Rs did not provide the entirety of that margin. They didn't even provide half.
Poll
