2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[DINGO Joe]

If Kansas is close things like this will be a pain

https://twitter.com/ConnieSchmidt2/status/1317533099920687105

This is Johnson Co. 

[DINGO Joe]

Demographics of LA early vote after day 2

2020--62-34-4 (W-B-O)   2016--70-27-4

2020--52-32-15 (D-R-O)  2016--45-39-17

Not quite at half of the 2016 early vote.

[DINGO Joe]

are there any counties we should be watching most closely for turnout numbers in Texas that would be a good sign for Biden? 

Denton TX

[DINGO Joe]

Look, in every state that has party registration, it's obvious that Ds are voting early in far greater numbers, especially in suburbia, but since TX doesn't have party registration, people get to pretend whatever they want.

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a very specific example to make my point Dallas Co, IA a fast growing suburban county outside of Des Moines that Trump won by 9.5 points after Romney won by 11.5.

Early voting in 2016     7672R  6224D
Early in 2020 thus far   4269R  7368D

In early ballots requested the Ds lead 12400 to 8500.  What's notable about that is that in 2016 only 11100 Ds voted altogether--early and on election day.  Now, the Ds have closed the registration gap by about 4200 voters since 2016, so it's a prime target for the Ds to flip this year.

But if Dallas didn't have party reg, then we'd have to listen to morons say that the big early turnout is Republitards cause Trump won it in 2016.

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a very specific example to make my point Dallas Co, IA a fast growing suburban county outside of Des Moines that Trump won by 9.5 points after Romney won by 11.5.

Early voting in 2016     7672R  6224D
Early in 2018 thus far   4269R  7368D

In early ballots requested the Ds lead 12400 to 8500.  What's notable about that is that in 2016 only 11100 Ds voted altogether--early and on election day.  Now, the Ds have closed the registration gap by about 4200 voters since 2016, so it's a prime target for the Ds to flip this year.

But if Dallas didn't have party reg, then we'd have to listen to morons say that the big early turnout is Republitards cause Trump won it in 2016.

do you mean 2020?

Fixed, thanks

[DINGO Joe]

Demographics of LA early vote after day 2

2020--62-34-4 (W-B-O)   2016--70-27-4

2020--52-32-15 (D-R-O)  2016--45-39-17

Not quite at half of the 2016 early vote.

Are there that many Dixiecrats in LA in 2020?

Not really, realignment is pretty much complete.  I don't expect those numbers to hold, but Biden would win with those demographics.

[DINGO Joe]

Obviously will be above 50 million by the end of next weekend

[DINGO Joe]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

This is patently false dude. She had a 60k lead in the total early vote and Dems actually lost the VBM in 2016.

Her final lead before Election Day was about 250,000 votes.

As GP pointed out, I mixed up Party Registration with final outcome.

Reported for conflating.

[DINGO Joe]

!!!

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1318935754232516608

It's great that black voters are doing well at turning in their absentee ballots, but these are pretty low numbers of votes compared to the total numbers of votes that will be cast in MS (for example, the Hinds figure is still only 8% of the 2016 vote total), so it's hard to take them to mean much (other than that Democrats are especially likelier to request and submit absentee ballots this year than in 2016, which isn't news).

MS Absentee ballot rules are probably the worst in the US. 

[DINGO Joe]

If this pace of 6+ million per day continues up to November 3 then it's entirely possible that more than half of the vote will be cast by then (70-80 million).

Well, if that pace were to keep up, then you're talking 100 million, probably not that high.

[DINGO Joe]

If this pace of 6+ million per day continues up to November 3 then it's entirely possible that more than half of the vote will be cast by then (70-80 million).

Well, if that pace were to keep up, then you're talking 100 million, probably not that high.

Obviously I exclude weekends, and election eve where, IIRC, there is no early in-person voting.

Oh, there will definitely be Saturday voting.  Election eve will still have ballots arriving. 

[DINGO Joe]

With some of the delays in reporting will the vote count be at 60M by Monday morning?

Yeah, since many states will have Saturday voting this week.

[DINGO Joe]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

Just  like you have said it is something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop

In fact, tomorrow is the first Saturday for in person absentee voting.  Don't think that counties do more than one site though.  I'd expect overall early voting to end up around 850,000.

[DINGO Joe]

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.

The 600,000 number was something someone pulled out of thin air or created by doubling 300,000 and then there was a desire to will it into existence.  It means nothing.  The new Florida guy with the pretty graphs is on the right path--how many of your voters can you get out? But the fact is until everybody who's going to vote votes you really won't know.