AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Lake just posted this on Twitter, it appears that IT is happening soon

https://twitter.com/karilake/status/1704301489827827813?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E2...

This is funny to me - shows that even if Sinema was still a Democrat, the Republican running against her would really be grasping at straws.

The Code Pink tutu pic from 2003? Doesn't Kari Lake know McSally tried that last time? Sinema should turn the tables and accuse Lake of treason

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

This.
Also, I don't see why Gallego would be a bridge too far for these people. Yeah, he is to the left of both Sinema and Kelly but it's not like he is a Cori Bush or Lee Carter kind of Democrat.

I don't think Gallego would be a bridge too far for these people in a Gallego vs. Lake head-to-head race, but I also think they'd be more inclined to vote for Sinema in a three-way race. Or at least just a small fraction of them, which is all that needs to happen to let Lake win with a plurality. Lake already has 48% of the vote locked down.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I support Sinema in this race because I think she is one of the most brilliant legislators of our time, but it would be interesting to see a Senator Lake. It would probably serve Democrats well to have such an easy visible punching bag for the 6 years that they won't have a shot at controlling the Senate anyways.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Wonder if Lake will try to pull a similar stunt on Sinema or if she doesn't really view Sinema as a threat to her chances of winning (could also be because Sinema isn't officially in the race yet). I can't even imagine what Sinema would do in this scenario. But she probably does like this exchange since she can use it as proof of being above the fray of partisan bickering.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Hearing rumblings that Sinema may file to run in the Dem primary. I don't know if it is her floating a trial balloon but there is apparently a poll in the field listing her in primary against Gallego.

Gallego would win that primary easily.

She would have $10M and the DSCC would be obligated to support her as an incumbent, I think she would make it close. Which is why I think she's seriously considering switching back.

I highly doubt she would switch back after all the talk about decrying partisan politics since her switch to Independent.

The fact that the Senate GOP ruthlessly killed her border bill could be the excuse she needs to announce she won't run again. Her argument would be the Senate failed Arizona, partisanship is too high, and the institution is irredeemable.

I still think there's a strong chance she runs again.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

What a shame that one of the most effective, bipartisan, and hardworking, no-nonsense Senators I have EVER seen was forced out due to hyperpartisanship. No one has had a more successful one-term Senate career IMO. She is an absolutely brilliant legislator and was extremely instrumental in bringing people from all sides of the political spectrum together to pass good, longstanding legislation.

I had a feeling this was coming, but it's devastating nonetheless. When she won in 2018 I envisioned a long career as a leading Senate moderate for her, which was perfect for a purple state like Arizona. Instead, the leftist activists and their damn purity tests decided she wasn't good enough.

I hope she runs for President under No Labels or for Governor of AZ one day.

Enjoy Senator Kari Lake, y'all. Sinema woud've won easily if Gallego didn't get in.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Enjoy Senator Kari Lake, y'all. Sinema woud've won easily if Gallego didn't get in.

I think this is satire but just in case, Sinema was 3rd place in every single poll. She was losing a lot. This is why she decided not to run

She knew she would lose the Democratic nomination, so she went independent hoping to win as a third party in the general. Than she realized there was no magical center to elect her as an independent senator. So she is dropping out, she doesn't want to give Dems the satisfaction of removing her. To spite them

My point is Sinema would've won a Sinema vs. Lake race, but Gallego just HAD to get in there and challenge her.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Enjoy Senator Kari Lake, y'all. Sinema woud've won easily if Gallego didn't get in.

I think this is satire but just in case, Sinema was 3rd place in every single poll. She was losing a lot. This is why she decided not to run

She knew she would lose the Democratic nomination, so she went independent hoping to win as a third party in the general. Than she realized there was no magical center to elect her as an independent senator. So she is dropping out, she doesn't want to give Dems the satisfaction of removing her. To spite them

My point is Sinema would've won a Sinema vs. Lake race, but Gallego just HAD to get in there and challenge her.

Huh? If Gallego was beating Sinema in hypothetically Democratic primary polls, why would he not get in the race? This is a stupid take

Sinema didn't deserve a primary challenger. She is so misunderstood.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Enjoy Senator Kari Lake, y'all. Sinema woud've won easily if Gallego didn't get in.

I think this is satire but just in case, Sinema was 3rd place in every single poll. She was losing a lot. This is why she decided not to run

She knew she would lose the Democratic nomination, so she went independent hoping to win as a third party in the general. Than she realized there was no magical center to elect her as an independent senator. So she is dropping out, she doesn't want to give Dems the satisfaction of removing her. To spite them

My point is Sinema would've won a Sinema vs. Lake race, but Gallego just HAD to get in there and challenge her.

Did you… like? Sinema?

Yes, she has been my favorite Senator since the day she took office.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Bernie with the best reaction to the amazing news.

https://twitter.com/MaggieLawlor70/status/1765406887225479451

What an idiotic thing to say towards a fellow sitting senator. Bernie Sanders is a garbage human. Remind me again how much legislation he's been instrumental in passing?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Oh yeah. Yes, Bernie Sanders has definitely done more damage than Ron DeSantis. Banning trans people is not as bad as social democracy, in practical terms.

Don't want to derail this thread too much, but DeSantis isn't as powerful as Bernie. Of course his policies are worse than Bernie's.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Thankful Kris Mayes won by like 8 votes or whatever it was so that this law won't be enforced