Mississippi Megathread 2023

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The election gods have a cruel way of validating Atlas memes that I dismiss. 

First Laxalt loses by a Titanium Tilt D margin.

Now Reeves wins by the exact same margin as four years ago — it doesn’t get more inelastic than that!

Congrats, ShadowoftheWave.  

Do you think NH will be elastic again and flip to Trump in 2024?

[Xing]

The election gods have a cruel way of validating Atlas memes that I dismiss.  

First Laxalt loses by a Titanium Tilt D margin.

Now Reeves wins by the exact same margin as four years ago — it doesn’t get more inelastic than that!

Congrats, ShadowoftheWave.  

Wait until Brown and Rosen both win while Tester goes down by double digits (to Sheehy, who trounces Rosendale in the primary.)

[gerritcole]

lane kiffin would be a good dem candidate for '27, especially if the dems donate to his NIL fund so he can get ole miss a natty

[Tekken_Guy]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year. 

Presley is only 46 years old and he's proven to be a more than capable fundraiser.  No reason he couldn't run again in four years. 

Interesting will be who the GOP nominates after Reeves.  Hosemann as Lieutenant Governor is next-in-line but I doubt he wants it (would be 81 at the start of his first term.)  Michael Watson, Lynn Fitch, and Shad White seem like the most ambitious and currently best positioned statewide pols.  If I had to guess, Fitch and Watson run for governor and White gets the LG spot.  A pretty terrible crop all around, haha 

I think Fitch is next in line, given AG is generally the most common launching pad for future governors, plus her role in Dobbs. Watson and White go for LG or potentially for Wicker’s seat when he retires.

[Pres Mike]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year.  

No. Mississippi is not a growing state. It has no major city. With the population decline and blacks voting more Republican, 60-40 will be the norm

[7,052,770]

I'll echo that the D nomination in 27 is either Presley again or some rando sacrificial lamb who struggles to break 40.

The R nomination could be a real fight, with Fitch, White, Hosemann (maybe), and possibly Watson all going for it, as well as Robert "kill transgender people" Foster.

My way, WAY too early rating for a Presley vs. Fitch race is Lean R, but who knows what kind of national environment we'll have then.

[smoltchanov]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year. 

Presley is only 46 years old and he's proven to be a more than capable fundraiser.  No reason he couldn't run again in four years. 

Interesting will be who the GOP nominates after Reeves.  Hosemann as Lieutenant Governor is next-in-line but I doubt he wants it (would be 81 at the start of his first term.)  Michael Watson, Lynn Fitch, and Shad White seem like the most ambitious and currently best positioned statewide pols.  If I had to guess, Fitch and Watson run for governor and White gets the LG spot.  A pretty terrible crop all around, haha 

In the past, when Republican bench in the Deep South was scarcer, Presley could simply run as a Republican, which is much more beneficial in most of the South. But - not now, when this bench is so abundant...

[7,052,770]

I put together this map of the change in total margin from 2019 to 2023, using the standard Atlas colors. It's only based on what the NYT has out there right now, so this won't be the final numbers, but probably close.

Hood lost in 2019 by 45,028 votes. Presley narrowed that margin down to 35,808. The biggest changes on the map include:

• Reeves took back Madison County and gained +2,000.
• Presley did well in Hinds, but it looks like turnout was lower so he didn't gain as much. (We'll see if additional votes change that result.
• Reeves increased his margin in the majority black counties generally, with a few exceptions
• Presley closed the gap some on the Coast, Northeast, and DeSoto, but it wasn't enough.
• Lafayette County was probably Presley's biggest oof. Chickasaw is Hood's home county.

[brucejoel99]

Re: 2027
https://twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/1722308824785174885https://twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/1722740387440144887https://twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/1722742899144552818

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1723118602176356714

[gespb19]

Limited precinct returns we have indicate Presley doing worse with college-educated voters than Hood did.

[ajc0918]

Presley flipped Winston County by 85 votes, apparently.

https://twitter.com/skep_observer/status/1723701943607197858?s=20

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Limited precinct returns we have indicate Presley doing worse with college-educated voters than Hood did.

Yeah the 2023 elections were turning back the clock in some aspects. Presley did better with blacks but worse with white suburbanites than Hood. Beshear did very well in the Eastern coalfields. Virginia Rs had a decent night.

[Del Tachi]

Limited precinct returns we have indicate Presley doing worse with college-educated voters than Hood did.

Selection bias.  Presley did worse than Hood across Metro Jackson and (weirdly?) Oxford.  What about college-educated precincts on the Coast, Hattiesburg, DeSoto, Tupelo, etc.

[gespb19]

Limited precinct returns we have indicate Presley doing worse with college-educated voters than Hood did.

Selection bias.  Presley did worse than Hood across Metro Jackson and (weirdly?) Oxford.  What about college-educated precincts on the Coast, Hattiesburg, DeSoto, Tupelo, etc.

Those counties haven't posted precinct results yet. That's why I said "limited."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MS was soley upset potential just like Niners are just as Good as Chiefs with Chase Young upset of Niners beat Chiefs but OH, NC, FL and TX are to the left of MS for upset next yr

[smoltchanov]

Well, in 2027 seat will be open and Presley is young enough. If, in addition, there will be a fratricidal Republican primary between establishment and ultras - there is a chance. The only problem with very apathetic voters - they must remember him somehow all these years...

[TML]

Back in 2019, shortly after that year's election, I saw an open letter written by a MS-based Democratic political consulting firm which stated that one of the things MS Democrats should do going forward is to focus more on the suburbs in terms of finding additional votes. It cited several examples of suburbs near Jackson having more raw votes for Democrats than some of the rural Delta counties, and noted that counties like Harrison (Gulf Coast), DeSoto (Memphis area), and Rankin (Jackson area) have plenty of Democratic raw votes despite being Republican strongholds.

It would seem that Presley didn't heed the aforementioned advice in his 2023 campaign, correct?

[smoltchanov]

Back in 2019, shortly after that year's election, I saw an open letter written by a MS-based Democratic political consulting firm which stated that one of the things MS Democrats should do going forward is to focus more on the suburbs in terms of finding additional votes. It cited several examples of suburbs near Jackson having more raw votes for Democrats than some of the rural Delta counties, and noted that counties like Harrison (Gulf Coast), DeSoto (Memphis area), and Rankin (Jackson area) have plenty of Democratic raw votes despite being Republican strongholds.

It would seem that Presley didn't heed the aforementioned advice in his 2023 campaign, correct?

IMHO - he wasn't the proper candidate for that. Suburbanites are, frequently, fiscal conservative while socially moderate. Presley was more economic populist then social liberal...

[OneJ]

One issue that was central to Presley’s campaign were the possible closure of rural hospitals across the state + Medicaid expansion. It’s possible that his more populist style of campaigning might’ve been what turned some of those kinds of voters off. It’s also worth mentioning that this race seemed to be less nationalized compared to last cycle.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

All 82 Mississippi counties are releasing their final results now, 71 have posted them already.

https://sos.ms.gov/elections/electionresults_aspx/elections_results_2023_certified.aspx

Brandon Presley wins most of the late vote, which I assume are mail and provisional ballots.

For example, in Madison County, the 5th largest in Mississippi, Presley received an additional 1700 votes, Reeves 1300, compared to the NYT election night reporting.

This is the case in most counties.

And in Forrest County (Hattiesburg), Presley even flipped the whole county:

Now: 51-49 Presley (9100-9000 Presley)
NYT: 52-48 Reeves (8600-8300 Reeves)

The largest county Hinds is not official yet, but Presley has to gain thousands of additional votes there as well.

I think the final statewide results will be close to 51-48 Reeves, not 52-47 (New York Times election night coverage).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think Presley will NET gain additional 10.000 votes, maybe much more, with the late-arriving and provision ballots.

The trends from Madison and Forrest counties would even net him an additional 25.000 votes statewide, which would bring him within 10.000 of Reeves. Still not enough to force him below 50 percent, but a solid result.

[Alben Barkley]

This might well be the saddest election result since 2016 for me.

I really, really wanted Presley to pull of the miracle. Seeing him come SO close just makes it all the more heartbreaking.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Harrison County in the South (Biloxi) also released final results.

And with 40.000 total votes, Reeves added an additional 1.000 votes over election night, but Presley added 2.000 additional votes - netting 1.000 additional votes over Reeves.

800.000 votes were cast on election night, 40.000 from Harrison are one in twenty of the statewide votes.

So, based on the Harrison County trend, Presley should net over 20.000 additional votes against Reeves statewide.

The Madison County trend would give him 13.000 net additional votes, the Forrest County trend even additional 25.000 ... but it will be somewhere in between.

On election night, Reeves was 35.000 ahead of Presley.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think Presley will cut Reeves margin from 35.000 on election night to around 18.000 after the certified statewide results.

Net gain of 17.000 votes, with the late ballots and provisionals.

This will shrink Reeves margin from 51.6-47.0 to around 50.8-48.0