🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[mileslunn]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

[mileslunn]

Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.

[mileslunn]

Just eyeballing maps, looks like Chega did best in least densely populated parts of country while IL was strongest in densest parts.  PS vs. PSD seemed to have a weak correlation, not like Anglosphere where high density areas tend to favour parties on left and low density on right.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).

[mileslunn]

Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).

Canada: (9,927 ballots)

39.5% PSD
37.9% PS
  9.3% CHEGA
  2.2% BE
  1.7% PAN
  1.5% CDS
  1.5% CDU
  1.2% IL
  5.2% Others/Invalid

17.8% Turnout

The PSD won in Toronto by a 40-36% margin over the PS, while in the rest of Canada, the PS got 42% to the PSD 37%.

USA: (8,601 ballots)

45.0% PSD
30.3% PS
10.9% CHEGA
  2.2% CDS
  2.1% BE
  2.0% IL
  2.0% PAN
  1.1% CDU
  4.4% Others/Invalid

13.8% Turnout

The PSD dominated in the whole US, winning in Newark with 47% of the votes, against the 29% for the PS and the 14% for CHEGA. In the rest of the US, PSD achieved 44% of the votes, the PS 31% and CHEGA 9%. Other parties were bellow 3%.

Interesting as in Canada, riding with largest Portuguese community is Davenport and it is an NDP/Liberal so very left wing.  Mind you this is just largest, lots live in other parts.  In US, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, California, and Hawaii I believe have largest Portuguese populations and all pretty solidly Democrat, but possible Portuguese went GOP as lots of other groups there.  I suspect most CHEGA voters in US voted for Trump if US citizens.  On other hand I suspect amongst PSD voters, probably fairly equally split between Biden and Trump.