CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

California's elections are bullsh!t. That is what happens when you have supermajorities all across the board, and really no one to keep you accountable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

California's elections are bullsh!t. That is what happens when you have supermajorities all across the board, and really no one to keep you accountable.

Accountable for what? Trying to make sure everyone votes?

Their terrible primary system that no one has seriously attempted to get rid of, it cheats voters out of representatives that fit their districts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have a total of 22 tabs open of New York Times Election results.

Lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Watching the results roll in on the big screen... I love election nights.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tf is happening in Montana?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tf is happening in Montana?

Nothing, really. Fagg’s base/home county (Yellowstone) is always one of the first ones to report its results.

Can the fag still lose?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Legitimately scared about California. Tonight has been a great night for Democrats so far, too...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is looking bad for dems in CA.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is looking bad for dems in CA.

LUL wut. This is what CA-Dems expected. 48 was the scary lockout chance, which appears to have come true as the chance of a potential lockout. 

Anyway, Bryan Caforio and katie Hill are exactly tied in CA-25.

Just that fact that Knight is easily breaching 50 is bad.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Damn, blue wave cancelled in California? Darn.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is looking bad for dems in CA.

LUL wut. This is what CA-Dems expected. 48 was the scary lockout chance, which appears to have come true as the chance of a potential lockout. 

Anyway, Bryan Caforio and katie Hill are exactly tied in CA-25.

Just that fact that Knight is easily breaching 50 is bad.

8,916 votes have been counted. Nearly 100k were cast in 2016.

I honestly don't know how some of you make it through the day.

The trend should hold.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks like we escaped the lock outs well, but even if we get candidates in these potential pick up seats, the gop is still leading well in primary turnout for these districts and breaching 50% in like all of them. This is very bad and should not be happening. Not good at all...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tonight, California has changed my mind. I don't think we are winning the house anymore.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tonight, California has changed my mind. I don't think we are winning the house anymore.

I honestly don't know how you pulled that out of your ass.

Look at how ing terrible numbers in cd's are even in obvious D holds. Garamendi at 54?!

Bera at 52?!

McNerney at 53?!

Carbajal at 52?!

Waters at 68?!

Lowenthal at 56?!

Peters at 57?!

Yes, these are all likely to safe D holds, but still terrible numbers, awful!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am seeing that limo might have been right all along (myabe a little overboard, dramatic, and a tinge too pessimistic) but the guy obviously has the bigger picture.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tonight, California has changed my mind. I don't think we are winning the house anymore.

I honestly don't know how you pulled that out of your ass.

Look at how ing terrible numbers in cd's are even in obvious D holds. Garamendi at 54?!

Bera at 52?!

McNerney at 53?!

Carbajal at 52?!

Waters at 68?!

Lowenthal at 56?!

Peters at 57?!

Yes, these are all likely to safe D holds, but still terrible numbers, awful!

How the hell do you dress yourself in the morning?

In what darn blue wave is Waters at 68 acceptable?!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Someone tell me why Waters at 68 is ok for a blue wave please.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Someone tell me why Waters at 68 is ok for a blue wave please.

Please go watch a movie or something instead

See, they have no counters, they are just delusional hacks, anyways I turned off the coverage and am heading off for the night, I am going to go watch Doyle Republic and contemplate my life choices.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

RINO Tom won't be happy to see this.

lol what is this forum's obsession with RINO Tom?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Freitas was just endorsed by Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brother's Group). Moving VA-Sen to Tossup/Tilt D if he wins the primary over Stewart. He's a very charismatic, good looking state delegate. Kaine is in for a major challenge in a state where Trump isn't even above 50% in disapproval, according to the latest poll.

Yes, now that you mention it, Freitas is quite strong. I don't think he will be the nominee (hence likely D), but if he is, I would have to move this to strong Lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

He did very well in 2016, and while I think it will be closer this time, I still think he wins 52-48.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.

True, but Rohrabacher should be favored over either one.

He's damaged goods in a district Clinton won.   I'd put him as one of the top 3 or top 5 most vulnerable incumbents in the country.  He didn't even get a third of the vote in his primary.

He did very well in 2016, and while I think it will be closer this time, I still think he wins 52-48.

He's toast against Rouda.

This overconfidence is f###### ridiculous. Rouda's own d@mn internal has him down four points. Now he could very well still win (this has and will continue to be a close race) but claiming that either Rohrabacher or the dem at this point is toast is huetarded and hawkish. But if I don't agree with you and instead call this a tight race with a slim GOP advantage, I am automatically a concern troll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really, really want Corey Stewart to win the primary in 5 days. But I think Freitas is the slight favorite now, he's surging and Stewart is getting a lot of negative stories dropped on him. Bad for Kaine, who will still likely win against Freitas but would easily blowout Stewart.

Yeah, this sounds about right, although I think Stewart narrowly edges out the primary. But I would not be surprised either way, Jackson aint a factor.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Revised VA-10 predictions:

Wexton 37%
Friedman 30%
Stover 18%
Helmer 10%
The rest 5%

My precinct didn't have any Wexton (or Stewart) signs, and Friedman and Stover both had canvassers present. It's about as anecdotal as it gets, but seeing how much more money Friedman spent, I wouldn't be surprised if Wexton basically punted on parts of Western Fairfax. Loudoun is her base anyway.

GOP primary prediction:

Stewart 45%
Freitas 43%
Jackson 12%

Freitas will benefit from boosted GOP turnout in NOVA, but I still think Stewart will run it up in the boonies, and of course, he has PWC on his side.

Besides Stewart increasing PWC turnout, what would make you think GOP turnout in NOVA will be boosted?