NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R now that we have the first GCB poll out: R+12. The Republican will win by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

Candidate quality doesn't matter at all. Mark Walker is as electable as any other Republican.

[SnowLabrador]

Hopefully Jeff Jackson can keep it in his pants.

[SnowLabrador]

Jackson vs. McCrory is the best-case scenario for Democrats. Even then, Jackson's odds are no better than 50/50.

[SnowLabrador]

Even if it's Lara Trump vs. Jeff Jackson, I expect Trump to win by a point or two.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope the DSCC doesn't endorse in this race. That's a big mistake they made in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

FWIW, Tillis' pollster thinks Cunningham would have won without the affair:
https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1375085942839652360

Even with the affair, I think Cunningham would have won had Ginsburg not died when she did.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/29/tillis-surgery-prostate-cancert-478325

Tillis was apparently diagnosed with cancer, although they caught it early so he'll hopefully be fine soon.

Not a fan of Tillis, but I'm not gonna celebrate this.

[SnowLabrador]

McCrory...tell me, how did this turn out for Bredesen, Bullock, Thompson, Strickland, and pretty much every Gov. this decade except Voldemort [and even that was a close one]?

Didn't Bredesen outperform the rest of the Democratic ticket in Tennessee by 10+ points? If McCrory does as well as he did then he'll win by a fine margin.

This. So much this. I don't think McCrory would outperform that much, but he'd still be favored since it's North Carolina in a Biden midterm.

[SnowLabrador]

It's Lean R until we see a poll, Tillis was underdog all yr long and he won

For once you make perfect sense.

[SnowLabrador]

It'll be Budd vs. Beasley, with Budd winning by high single digits.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1433147668096819203

Yep, she’s done



(Probably not, but I hope she is)

Hopefully Jeff Jackson can up his fundraising, although it isn't likely to matter at this point. If it is indeed a red wave, as history suggests, no Democrat can win.

[SnowLabrador]

This race increasingly looks Safe R. If the Democrats couldn't even beat Tillis in a D+4 environment, how are they going to beat Budd in an R+8 environment? I think Budd wins by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

Okay, so it looks pretty clear that Ted Budd will be the next Senator from North Carolina. Nothing more to see here.

[SnowLabrador]

Chuck Schumer has never liked this guy - Jackson is probably hedging his bets that he'll fare better and face less hurdles in a future statewide primary for a row office or Governor.

That's 'cause Democrats don't want to win.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Budd will win the general election by double digits. Beasley is a terrible candidate, since she just lost a statewide election and supports the filibuster. Also, it will be a bigger red wave than 2010, book it.

[SnowLabrador]

This election is safe r right?

Yes. If Democrats couldn't beat Tillis, they sure as hell aren't winning an open seat in a considerably redder year.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1486852451630301184?s=21

Well, I wasn't expecting that. He's still not winning the primary.

[SnowLabrador]

Congratulations, Senator Budd.

[SnowLabrador]

Beasley raised $7.4M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546854910796464128

Budd only raised $1.7M

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1548046172979228674

The question is: How much of Beasley's money came from within North Carolina? This could easily be an Amy McGrath situation where she has more support from outside her state than within her state.

[SnowLabrador]

If Democrats couldn't beat Tillis, they aren't beating Budd. Likely R.