"Expanding the map" At a private donor retreat, Trump team says Minnesota and Virginia are in play

[Woody]

PALM BEACH, Fla. — Top officials for former President Donald Trump’s campaign believe they can flip Democratic strongholds Minnesota and Virginia into his column in November, they told donors behind closed doors at a Republican National Committee retreat Saturday.

The Trump camp’s discussion of expanding the electoral map deeper into the Democratic territory of Minnesota and Virginia comes as Biden’s re-election team says it is eyeing North Carolina — which Republicans have won in three consecutive presidential races — and Florida, where the GOP has prevailed in the last two presidential elections. Biden took the 2020 contest by a margin of 74 electoral votes, with victories in the pivotal states of Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia coming from a cumulative advantage of about 44,000 votes.

“I think that the Biden campaign is deliberately playing a faux game by talking about [how] they’re going to expand the map in Florida and North Carolina,” LaCivita said in a telephone interview with NBC News. “But we have a real, real opportunity in expanding the map in Virginia and Minnesota.”

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/private-donor-retreat-trump-team-minnesota-virginia-2024-rcna150726

[Progressive Pessimist]

They're probably referring to the Fabrizio Polls, which means they're going to waste their time and effort.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I seriously doubt it

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Burn that cash

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

MN is probably only in play if the third party vote is above 5%, which despite the wishcasting of certain posters isn't likely to happen. VA is not in play under any circumstance.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

"You know, Donald Trump turned into Hillary Clinton so gradually, I didn't even notice."

[Steve from Lambeth]

My current assessment remains roughly as it was eight weeks ago, with the caveat that everyone's forgotten about the Criminal Alien bill and I therefore imagine that Donald Trump's chances in GA have gone up slightly in the interim:

Likely D.

My assessment remains that Donald Trump will win Nevada and Arizona; Joe Biden will win Pennsylvania.

I took Michigan out of the Safe D column into Likely D in mid-February. Nothing I've seen since then suggests that Pete Hoekstra has been a damnable party administrator, so it's staying there.

The Wisconsin Republicans have rolled over as regards the gerrymandering claims. There's also no news from Georgia, where the local Democrats remain strong - and there are a couple of question marks around the Criminal Alien bill there too. This means I'm categorising both of them as Likely D states, and roughly in the same sub-bracket of Likeliness.

All other states are either Safe R or Safe D, with the caveat that there's a small chance that the closer states in either column have a tiny chance of swinging. For my purposes, however, they're safe enough.

Trump is probably a couple of percentage points more likely to win the election than when I made my original assessment at the start of the year. It won't be enough, at least if the election were held today, but I don't foresee any big changes until the conventions at least.

The TL;DR of the below is that I imagine Trump is talking about MN and VA because those are the states which in the public imagination would be his most obvious flips. If you're more optimistic than I am then it is perfectly conceivable he could win MN at least. But if he's won either of those states than he has also more than likely flipped several other states which most people do not expect.


Playing with Fivey Fox's new shiny Uniform National Swing toy would suggest that Biden +1 looks like Trump cleaning up the Super Six and NE-2.

Beyond that (i.e. a tied popular vote, or close enough), the Trump flips run:
- MN and NH at Trump +3 (they flip at almost the same time);
- NM at Trump +5;
- ME-AL at Trump +5.5;
- VA at Trump +6.5;
- CO at Trump +9 (Obama was +7 in 2008);
- ME-1 at Trump +11...
- ...NJ and OR at +12, IL at +13, DE and WA at +15, CT and RI at +16, NY at +19...
- CA at +25, HI at +27, MA and MD at +29, VT at +31.5, and DC only if Trump wins black voters by inconceivable margins. (Reagan was +18, Nixon was +23, in their re-elections.)

(The DC Republican Party organisation is possibly the most inept in the nation; they make the PA Republicans look like Ataturk's CHP. You'd expect them to drive at least Mississippian levels of racially-polarised voting. Instead Trump won 5% in 2020 and Stacia Hall 6%, less than the second-placed candidate, in 2022's Mayoral election. Fewer votes were cast for all candidates combined in the 2024 Presidential primary than for Hall in the 2022 Mayoral primary.)

Two other takeaways of note from 538's fancy tool:

• If Trump wins MI then he has probably already won NE-2. I now consider NE-2 to be a Likely D vote - I don't think it's on Trump's road to 270, but I can see it shifting further to Trump if he makes more of a play to moderate white voters or Bacon crushes it early on in the House vibestakes. If it does, then I will have just cause to reclassify the entire race as Lean D, something I haven't done this cycle.
• Trump will most likely win PA after cleaning up in AZ-GA-WI. I'm still not buying this - the Pennsylvania Republicans have hardly been at their best since Act 77 and 2024 has only validated this so far.

My current ranking of most-to-least likely Trump flips thus runs NV-AZ-GA-WI-NE2-MI-PA. Trump flipping IL is the point at which I stop saying anything other than "I know, right?" whenever anyone asks me about the election results.

[SnowLabrador]

They're not wrong.

[TheTide]

In a way I appreciate more states being in play or at least more states having resources thrown at them. It's not good for democracy when about 42 states are dismissed as being sure things for one party or the other.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Trump campaign continues to remind me of Hillary in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Trump campaign continues to remind me of Hillary in 2016.

FL was about Senator Murphy Murphy was leading in FL until Rubio got back into race so it wasn't a hail Mary to get FL


In this polarized Environment Rs have a lock on FL

[wnwnwn]

MN has still some ancestral rural dem areas where Trump can make gains, but not sure if it would be enough.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

MN has still some ancestral rural dem areas where Trump can make gains, but not sure if it would be enough.

It's definitely not enough. MSP is just too large and too blue. At this point Minnesota can have Illinois-level urban-rural splits and still be a blue state.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I agree with MN

I think VA could be close and could theoretically flip maybe but I don't see it happen. A modest-sized Trump victory probably keeps VA still somewhat narrowly in the D column, like a +2 win. I think some other states could flip before VA like ME for instance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't losing MN  at all

[Eraserhead]

Virginia, no.

Minnesota, probably not but...

[All Along The Watchtower]

They're not wrong.

I was on the fence until you said this and—yep, they’re almost certainly wrong.

[xavier110]

These are two of the most educated states in the nation. They don’t make much sense as next in line to fall, IMO. Something like New Mexico feels like more favorable terrain for Trump under the right conditions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When Trump isn't on the ballot I believe TX and OH will swing back to Ds, because Cornyn and Vance are vulnerable in 26)28, Trump does unusual well in these particular states. No, MN and VA aren't in play because Amy Klobuchar anf Kaine are on the ballot and these polls that are conducted aren't always polling the S numbers that's why we have these bias polls out here

I do believe that Newsom rather than Harris will be our nominee, Harris isn't making much of a case of 28

I do believe the Border Bill will pass in the next Congress Spk Johnson blocked it causing Trump to once again do well in TX again and red flags and background checks will pass. Guiterrez, Busse and Golden are spectacular candidates to go against Cornyn, Daines and Collins