Spanish elections and politics

[Zinneke]

There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.

If they lose the popular vote but win a majority of seats then, as in 2015, they can only ask for a referendum. And since they have already gone through that "process", I think they'd have to seriously rethink their strategy.

[Velasco]

I think that is likely that pro-independence parties retain majority by the narrowest of margins. In case ERC, JxCat and the CUP get around 45% of the vote, the chances of parliamentary majority are high thanks to malapportionment. Only a massive mobilization in Barcelona and Tarragona metropolitan areas could prevent this. The chances of a 'unionist' or 'constitutionalist' majority -without CatComú-Podem- are virtually non-existent. It's highly unlikely that Cs candidate Inés Arrimadas becomes in the next Catalan premier, because CatComú-Podem will never vote her investiture. However, consider the potentially huge impact in Spanish politics of a Cs victory alongside with the collapse of PP vote in Catalonia. In case of a pro-independence majority, things won't be easy. Consider the increasingly rivalry between ERC and the 'legitimate president' Puigdemont, as well the uncompromising CUP stance on following the unilateral path to independence.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm going to say Secessionists lose a majority by a timy amoumt of seats. This puts Podemos with the awkward choice of either Kingmaking one of two bad options, or a government is formed that reaches across the Secessionist/Unionist line and tries to pretend to ignore the independence question...

[jaichind]

My guess is  secessionists wins majority by a tiny margin which just means continuation of the crisis without end.   I think it will be something like:

CUP:      8
ERC:    33
JxC:     28
CeC:      8
PSC:    19
PP:        6
C's:     33

[Former President tack50]

Interesting. It seems like at this time turnout is actually down compared to 2015!

Turnout at 13:00, 2017: 34.62%
Turnout 13:00, 2015: 35.10%

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171221/433795520166/participacion-elecciones-cataluna.html

Then again it might be because most people plan on voting after they end their workday during the afternoon. Remember that 2015 was held on a Sunday while this election is being held on a workday.



By province, turnout is basically flat in Barcelona, slightly down in Tarragona, slightly up in Lleida and 3 points down in Girona. Idk why Girona isn't flat like the other 3.

[Velasco]

Turnout by municipality at 13;00 CET

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Grafico-dato-participacion-municipio_0_720928465.html

Turnout increased slightly in Metropolitan Barcelona, some places in Tarragona and in the south of Lleida province. Lower turnout in places with a strong pro-independence vote.

It's too early, this election is held on working day instead on Sunday (as usual since 1982), etcetera

[Mike88]

Turnout at 68.33% at 18:00h. +5.21% compared with 2015.

[Velasco]

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreases in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.

[Mike88]

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreases in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.

Right now, only the comarca of Pallars Sobirà has a lower turnout compared with 2015.

With these figures at 18:00h, turnout can easily achieve 80/81% at the end of the day, IMO.

[Former President tack50]

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreses in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.

Seems like the few that have lower turnout are pro-secessionist



Pallars Sobira: 78% secessionist in 2015
Alta Ribagorça: 58%
Bergueda: 78%
Moianes: 77%

[jaichind]

The turnout statistics are pretty amazing.  Thanks for posting the links.

[Velasco]

Actually it's Pallars Sobirà the only comarca with turnout decrease, as Mike88 said (La Vanguardia said the other three decreased too).

As for the 'unionist' comarcas (I hate that terminology, but anyway)

Barcelonès 68.12% (61.77%)
Baix Llobregat 68.27% (62.15%)
Vallès Occidental 68.86% (63.79%)
Tarragonès 67.44% (61.76%)
Baix Penedès 64.19% (60.16%)
Aran 55.9% (51.09%)

It seems likely that turnout will reach something like 80%.

Keep in mind that pro-independence vote was hyper-movilized in 2015. They will turnout in great numbers this time again. It's only that here's no much room for an increase in separatist strongholds.

[Mike88]

Graphic showing the increase/decrease of turnout by comarca, compared with % of vote for the pro-independence parties in 2015:

[jaichind]

Ciudadanos Seen Winning Most Seats in Catalan Ballot: 8tv Poll

[jaichind]

Catalan Separatists Seen Winning Razor-Thin Majority: 8tv Poll

[Former President tack50]

Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)



Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.

[jaichind]

8tv exit poll

CUP:      5-6
ERC:    34-36
JxC:     28-29
CeC:      7-8
PSC:    18-20
PP:        3-5
C's:     34-37

[jaichind]

The iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF slipped lower just after polls closed. It's still convincingly higher on the day.

[jaichind]

The secessionist bloc on at medium of 69 according to exit poll.

[Mike88]

Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)



Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.

Share of vote:

26.0% C's
22.5% ERC
19.0% JxCat
15.0% PSC
  7.0% Comú
  5.0% CUP
  4.5% PP

46.5% Pró-Independence
45.5% Anti-Independence
  7.0% Comú

[jaichind]

Looks like PP lost votes to C and CUP lost votes to ERC relative to pre-election polls.

[jaichind]

GAD3 seem to hedging their bets a bit with these projections. Bottom end of the range for the separatists give them 67 seats - one short of a majority. Top end is 71.

[jaichind]

It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.

The last Electipn Day poll I remember claiming to be an exit due to the lack of exits was YouGov's 51-49 remain poll...

[Former President tack50]

2.25% of the vote is in
Turnout thus far: 81.83%

JxCat 31.40% (43)
ERC 23.16% (33)
Cs: 18.78% (27)
PSC: 10.63% (16)
CUP:  5.57% (7)
ECP: 5.33% (6)
PP: 3.79% (3)