Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Sestak]

If Jones wins, his approval will automatically be ten points negative. Same for Moore. Neither will win reelection.

I'm not so sure about that.

If Moore wins, I'd think he'd win again in 2020. He'd certainly beat any primary challenge and if he won this election, he could win the next one. On the other hand, if Jones wins, Moore will likely run again in 2020 and win the nomination. And Jones might win again, possibly creating a scenario where Moore sabotages every single Alabama senate race for the GOP for years to come.

[Sestak]

If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.

[Sestak]

If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.

Why are you saying that a left-wing platform would throw away Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.

I think that those states won't vote for a sandersite...

But I'd rather not go off on a tangent about this.

[Sestak]

High thrnout in Montgomery county is good for Jones?

[Sestak]

Well this is something...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/940644406079754240

[Sestak]

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Precinct was 62-36 Obama in '08

26% now means on track for at least 50, right?

[Sestak]

Win or lose tonight, I am proud of Doug and the campaign he ran.

[Sestak]

22% turnout by 1:30pm

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22 already??

[Sestak]

please don't give me any hope yet.

[Sestak]

Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

[Sestak]

Someone needs to slap some sense into me so I don't get my hopes up.

[Sestak]

Too late. You guys are getting my hopes up. Damn it.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November

!!

What are the chances Russell is right??

[Sestak]

It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

I'm thinking that too, but I reeeealllly don't want to get my hopes up.

But it's tough, between:

1. This turnout data
2. Jones' confidence
3. Fox's apparent confidence in their poll

[Sestak]

Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

If Jones wins, this is the new "Rain in NoVa".

[Sestak]

It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

I'm thinking that too, but I reeeealllly don't want to get my hopes up.

But it's tough, between:

1. This turnout data
2. Jones' confidence
3. Fox's apparent confidence in their poll

How can you make ANY assumptions about turnout data at this point when we have no clue what is happening in 60%+ of the state?

Turnout data is a very limited and innaccurate window, I'm aware. However, the snippets we do know look good for Jones. Not definitive, though, which is why I'm trying not to get my hopes up.

[Sestak]

Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Is this a sock of LimoLiberal?

I mean, I initially didn't think so, but now...

Can someone do a side-by-side of this with the infamous "Rain in NoVa" post?

[Sestak]

Seriously - let’s all pump the brakes on turnout anecdotes or “projections” from random local officials.

No. We need to comment on every tiny little report if we want to get to Megathread 4.

[Sestak]

Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

[Sestak]

The posters on PredictIt are so vehemently pro-Moore it's disturbing...

Not surprising...

[Sestak]

Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

I don't know this for sure but my gut tells me Jones will start with a massive lead which will be whittled down quickly and by the end of the night Moore will win by 10 points give or take a couple.

Well, someone should tell Alabamians there's no need to vote. King Lear's got it all figured out.

[Sestak]

FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher

Huh, predictit not overreactign to every little thing? Color me surprised.

I guess people realize this race is too unpredictable to bet too much on.

[Sestak]

I wonder who's feeling more confident. Fox or Emerson?

Emerson is closer to conventional wisdom, so I'd say Fox.

[Sestak]

High turnout in Shelby County, but they are seeing a lot more younger and minority voters than typical:

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Source

Seems in line with what we've heard elsewhere.