Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wiz in Wis]

The Wisconsin GOP really needs some time in the opposition for their own good. I do think the state's demographic trends favor the GOP in the long run, but that won't help them win much if they aren't serving the public and, uh, actually trying to win people over.

Also Walker needs a break from things.

I'm going to disagree with you that "the long term trends look good for the GOP" in Wisconsin.

in 2018:

-Evers won 18-29s 60-37
-Baldwin won 18-29s 64-35
-Evers won 30-44s 56-42
-Baldwin won 30-44s 58-41
-Evers "trended" best (i.e. overperformed) in the most populous counties, including WOW.
-Evers carried Dane County, the largest growing county in WI,
-The counties that trended to Walker are losing population
-Scott Walker won more votes than any GOP governor's candidate in history, including his own previous records, and still lost.

While he wasn't destroyed, he presided over an unemployment rate under 3%, and had an even approval rating, and Trumps approval rating in this exit poll was 47%.

Given the GOP's weakness among college educated whites and young people, I have a hard time seeing the state moving more GOP in a systemic way... maybe from year to year, but it's not shifting like Ohio/Iowa has been.

[Wiz in Wis]

Let's also abolish the redistricting commission in California and draw a 51-2 map (be sure to gerrymander out McCarthy as well.)

I was just saying this to Antonio the other night. I'm not sure it would even be that difficult, given the Central Valley's natural geography. Maybe McCarthy can be next in line to lose to the bankrupt carpetbagging gringo.

Just bacon strip orange county at this point because its a blue county lol.

I know this is CA content in the WI tab... but fivethirtyeight did a Dem gerrymander of Cali and still couldn't do better than 6 GOP seats left... though, the post Trump shift may have moved these numbers around:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Dem

[Wiz in Wis]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

A fair map would involve baconmandering Madison and Milawaukee. It's better to just reach out to the non-urban areas.

Honest question... do you live in Rural Wisconsin? Because, as a resident of Rural Wisconsin, I'd love to hear your critique of my local candidate who hustled his ass off, ran as a moderate, and raised a ton of cash... please, do share your wisdom.

[Wiz in Wis]

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP ENGAGING WITH AN OBVIOUS TROLL

In my case it's boredom but ymmv

[Wiz in Wis]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing - 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

I grew up in Wauwatosa, and it used to be pretty Republican. I know it voted for Bush and Obama twice, but didn't it also vote for Walker three times? Looks like Tosa is starting to vote like the North Shore suburbs.

It's worth noting that in 2008, Wauwatosa and West Allis voted for Obama by nearly the same margin while he was romping throughout the state, 52.6-46.4 and 52.5-45.9 respectively. Evers significantly outperformed Obama's Wauwatosa margins, but West Allis has remained essentially the same. I wonder if Democrats will eventually be able to get double digits margins in West Allis as well.

West Allis is a much more working class suburb than Wauwatosa.

[Wiz in Wis]

So, my unpopular opinion is that the lame duck isn't that big a deal, but will make the GOP look like losers and whiners anyways.

The early voting law probably will get overturned, and even if it doesn't, that may not hurt the Dems.

The WEDC and lawsuit bills are really inside baseball and may fail in court too. Very little practical outcomes on that aside from GOP patting itself on the back for reintroducing unpopular topics like preexisting conditions.

The only really crappy law, moving the election, never passed, so no biggie there.

[Wiz in Wis]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer (up from a current 80%). Mark my words.  

Incumbent governor Scott Walker and Senator Leah Vukmir agree that your predictions are very accurate.

Ah yes... the idea that Foxconn being a clusterfork is somehow going to hurt EVERS. Very. on. brand.

[Wiz in Wis]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

I saw nothing but Neubauer signs in Wauwatosa when I visited Milwaukee this past week. I saw a handful of Neubauer signs in Mequon (which is slowly starting to vote D like the North Shore), but mostly Hagedorn signs there and in Brookfield when I visited.

See anything in driftless?

Hi Hi,

I live in Sauk County (Reedsburg) and there are a fair number of signs for both Hagedorn and Neubauer, but they all are in the same spots that Evers/Walker Mega-signs lived last year so not real clue there. Not much presence for either candidate IMHO.

[Wiz in Wis]

Dane County turnout is essentially matching last year's Supreme Court Race:

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/981212666227281920

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1113116670762123264

This actually means there are more raw voters this year than last year as there are 358,346 registered Dane County voters as of 4/1/2019 compared to 309,581 as of 4/1/2019.

So in terms of raw votes:
- 43,341 in 2018
- 46,585 in 2019   

Is Dane really growing that fast? 50K new voters in one year is insane.

Registration gain from 2018, population gain is probably only 10k

[Wiz in Wis]

https://twitter.com/amyreidreports/status/1113174609044623362

Is that good for Neubauer? Where in the state is that?

Dane county. Here are some numbers from 2016 and 2018.

2016 Pres-
62-31 clinton

2018 Gov-
67-30 evers

2018 senate-
71-28 baldwin

Actually Dane went for Clinton 71-23 in 2016, 75-23 for Evers and 78-22 for Baldwin in 2018.

I think the quoted numbers are just Sun Prairie