2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GALeftist]

Regardless of whether Biden ekes it out, I hope we can stop with "muh electability" in the 2024 primary. This is far too close for comfort for a candidate who was supposed to be the safe choice. People need someone to vote for.

[GALeftist]

Ultimately, Biden's job is to hold Clinton's states and win back MI/WI/PA.

That would be a very disappointing result, but Biden would have done the job that Democrats needed him to do.

Hard disagree. That likely means a minority in the Senate.

[GALeftist]

FOX News website has Biden winning Ohio with over 80% probability.

Also has Biden winning NC at 93% and Biden winning GA at 75%.

Stuff is really not adding up at the moment; it's best to wait a while before wetting the bed.

Well then people shouldn't point to NYT and there predictor model. I swear the S avatars really out here rooting for a Trump win.

There’s not much difference between them and the Trumpers. Far right/left are almost the same.

Swear to God I'm rooting for Biden as hard as any of you, but this is way too close.

[GALeftist]

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/ shows that with >99% of the vote in NC, Biden has a .5 point lead. This might be recount territory.

The senate race lol

OMG, if Biden wins in NC and Cunningham loses I will flip my sh!t

[GALeftist]

What's wrong about voting against something?

Nothing, it's what I did, but evidently a fair few Americans just weren't willing to do it.

[GALeftist]

Yeah honestly wtf happened w the polls

[GALeftist]

If Reps get the house the Democratic Party is officialy dead.

Will you shut up, man?

[GALeftist]

If all these people are just going to vote against socialism, why don't we just run a socialist?

[GALeftist]

Scranton Joe lol.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323825009320742915?s=19

Christ on a bike.

[GALeftist]

There is absolutely no reason Ohio should be a bright sport right now. These areas are trending R FAST and the Dems NEED to be improving in NC and GA.

also one last lol McSally

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323825868897243136?s=20

Heavy sigh. Texas 2.0.

[GALeftist]

With respect to Georgia, there was a water pipe break at State Farm Arena. Metro ATL's votes won't be in for a hot second.

[GALeftist]

Very much over these electability candidates.

[GALeftist]

One pattern I've noticed: in 2016, Sanders had surprising strength with WWC in rust belt, and sure enough, Hillary bled votes with those voters. In 2020, Sanders had surprising strength with Hispanics, and sure enough, Joe bled votes with Hispanics.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1323853428624363520?s=19

Very fake news. No way to call it so early.

[GALeftist]

Too tired to say anything except that if the Democrats do not nominate a progressive in 2024 I'm not voting Democrat.

[GALeftist]

Can someone explain to me why everyone's being doomer on Biden still? Not much of Milwaukee is in, and I think a lot of Detroit is still out. This is underwhelming and shameful but probably still a win for Biden

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1323868120453423105?s=20

Citation needed, obviously. Sigh.

[GALeftist]

Does anyone think Bullock still has a chance? I've spot-checked some counties against Tester's 2018 map, and I'm just not sure.

I dunno, maybe. Those Yellowstone numbers don't exactly fill me with confidence, though.

[GALeftist]

So, if Biden wins 270-268, will the Nebraska legislature try to take the 5th EV away from him?

lol civil war time

[GALeftist]

What is the current thinking on Nevada?  I have always worried about this state but people told me to shut up because it won't be close.  Now I'm worried again.

I think I saw that Biden improved a bit in Washoe and Trump improved a bit in Clark so it's basically a wash

[GALeftist]

Yo what just happened with the NC needle? moved from 95% Trump to 84%

[GALeftist]

I'd just like to say that in both 2016 and 2020 when the DNC had to ratf#ck Bernie out of the nomination it foretold a serious issue in the coming general; WWC in the rust belt in 2016, Hispanics in 2020. The Democrats would do well to pay attention to this in 2024 but I know they won't

[GALeftist]

K friends imma sleep now but before I go a few thoughts:

1. Not the anticipated D wave election on the presidential level by a long shot but probably still a win for Biden. He's probably favored in AZ, WI, NV, and MI and that's all he needs. The fact that Trump still can't count on Georgia (an unexpected bright-ish spot for Dems) and (to a much lesser extent) North Carolina doesn't help either.

2. Legislative humiliation. I'm not sure if the Democrats will net lose seats in the House or not but they certainly aren't picking up an appreciable number as of my writing this. In the Senate, the Democrats are having to claw their way to Susan Collins's seat, which should tell you all you need to know. Once again, I think Georgia might be an unexpected bright-ish spot, but this is a straight up bad performance.

3. I seriously never want to hear another electability case again. Twice in a row we've nominated these ostensibly electable moderates who clearly energize no one after the party put its thumb on the scale, and twice in a row we've been burned. I said this before, but in 2016 Bernie performed well among WWC in the Rust Belt who Clinton lost and in 2020 Bernie performed well among Hispanics who, honestly, Biden might have lost absent COVID. This is just atrocious. All of the states Biden was supposed to lock down were either always going D (Arizona) or always going R (Florida, Ohio, etc.) and a progressive might have actually done better in states like Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. Suffice it to say, barring a real risk of like nuclear war or something, I will not be voting for non-progressive Democrats for president for the foreseeable future, and I encourage any other progressives or even moderates who want to see the party actually win to take a similar pledge. I'm still going to vote and cure ballots for Warnock (and Ossoff if he gets to a runoff), but frankly downballot Dems are running out of goodwill as well.

[GALeftist]

K friends imma sleep now but before I go a few thoughts:

1. Not the anticipated D wave election on the presidential level by a long shot but probably still a win for Biden. He's probably favored in AZ, WI, NV, and MI and that's all he needs. The fact that Trump still can't count on Georgia (an unexpected bright-ish spot for Dems) and (to a much lesser extent) North Carolina doesn't help either.

2. Legislative humiliation. I'm not sure if the Democrats will net lose seats in the House or not but they certainly aren't picking up an appreciable number as of my writing this. In the Senate, the Democrats are having to claw their way to Susan Collins's seat, which should tell you all you need to know. Once again, I think Georgia might be an unexpected bright-ish spot, but this is a straight up bad performance.

3. I seriously never want to hear another electability case again. Twice in a row we've nominated these ostensibly electable moderates who clearly energize no one after the party put its thumb on the scale, and twice in a row we've been burned. I said this before, but in 2016 Bernie performed well among WWC in the Rust Belt who Clinton lost and in 2020 Bernie performed well among Hispanics who, honestly, Biden might have lost absent COVID. This is just atrocious. All of the states Biden was supposed to lock down were either always going D (Arizona) or always going R (Florida, Ohio, etc.) and a progressive might have actually done better in states like Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. Suffice it to say, barring a real risk of like nuclear war or something, I will not be voting for non-progressive Democrats for president for the foreseeable future, and I encourage any other progressives or even moderates who want to see the party actually win to take a similar pledge. I'm still going to vote and cure ballots for Warnock (and Ossoff if he gets to a runoff), but frankly downballot Dems are running out of goodwill as well.

You think Bernie would have won?

Yes. I think Biden probably won but Bernie's win would have been more comfortable. Obv unprovable, it's a counterfactual, but it's my take