2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

I guess I'll have to vote Green. But only because it wouldn't make much sense to campaign for one party and then vote for another.

Anyway... any guesses who's going to be SPD chairman in October/November this year?

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Thüringen poll by IfM Leipzig:

CDU: 37% (-6)
Left: 23% (-3)
SPD: 20% (+5)
FDP: 9% (+5)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 6% (-2)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

Only if the 5% for the Greens means "5.1%" instead of "4.9%" though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is a very difficult question. There is nobody with charisma and over the most leaders of the SPD is the shadow of the Schröder politics and this is the biggest reason for the SPD-disaster they will have in the election.

So... what about Wowereit? Mayor of Berlin since 2001, high name recognition nationally and it opens up an opportunity for Red-Red-Green in 2013. Beck and Platzeck are both damaged goods. And nobody even knows who Sellering and Böhrnsen are. If you take another state premier, it's Wowi's turn now.

Steinbrück is politically even more centrist than Steinmeier, and for some reason I can't really see Andrea Nahles as a party chairman. I guess it could be an option that Müntefering steps aside and Steinmeier becomes the new SPD chairman (he would be jobless anyway if a CDU-FDP coalition comes to fruition). But this would prolong the crisis and not end it.

Longshots: Sigmar Gabriel (ugh), Hannelore Kraft?... uh, well, that's about it, isn't it? Heiko Maas, Christoph Matschie or Ralf Stegner if they manage to become state PM somehow? Well, I'm really grasping at straws now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wowereit's homosexuality could help him marginally among younger leftists (because it would be "cool" to have a gay Chancellor) and hurt him marginally among older conservatives. In the end this cancels each other out. And since it didn't hurt Westerwelle politically, why should it hurt Wowereit? Wowereit would be the second open homosexual to become the leader of a major German party. Big deal.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And the mud-throwing season has officially started. First health minister Ulla Schmidt (SPD) was under criticism for using her official car during vacations. Now Angela Merkel has come under fire because she threw a birthday party for Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann in the Chancellery (paid from the Chancellery's budget).



Summary for the last state election polls from Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia:

Saarland
Infratest: CDU/FDP 47%, SPD/Greens/Left 47%
FGW: CDU/FDP 45%, SPD/Greens/Left 48%

Saxony
Infratest: CDU/FDP 49.5%, SPD/Greens/Left 40%, NPD 4.5%
FGW: CDU/FDP 53%, SPD/Greens/Left 37%, NPD 6%
IfM: CDU/FDP 51%, SPD/Greens/Left 40%, NPD 5%

Thuringia
Infratest: CDU/FDP 42%, SPD/Greens/Left 49% (if the Greens fail to reach 5%: SPD/Left 43%)
FGW: CDU/FDP 45%, SPD/Greens/Left 48% (without Greens 43%)
IfM: CDU/FDP 46%, SPD/Greens/Left 48% (without Greens 43%)


So, we're looking at a CDU/FDP victory in Saxony and close races in Saarland and Thuringia. And it seems as if the outcome of the Thuringia election depends on whether the Greens make it past the 5% threshold.

Both the SPD's chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier and the Greens's top candidate Renate Künast have basically said that Red-Red-Green is an option in both states, provided that the Left Party won't get the position of minister-president.

Yeah, a "victory" in both states on August 30 could be the SPD's last hope of slowing down the CDU's momentum for the September 27 election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I guess the two Thuringian options are "CDU/SPD without Althaus" and "Left/SPD without Ramelow" (as premier at least). The SPD enters a coalition with the party whose current leader forfeits the PM position first.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringian prime minister Dieter Althaus resigned today, effective immediately.

Finance minister Birgit Diezel (CDU) took over as Acting prime minister again (she had already acted for Althaus from January to April when Althaus was incapicated after his skiing accident).

Althaus' resignation generally increases the likelihood of a CDU/SPD coalition in Thuringia. The SPD still plans to talk to both the Left Party and the CDU though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Without weighting

GRÜNE, SPD (53 of 76 each)
DIE LINKE (51)
PIRATEN (44)
FDP (41)
NPD (37)
DVU (35)
CDU/CSU (33)

(WTF?)


With weighting

GRÜNE (63)
DIE LINKE, SPD (61 each)
PIRATEN (54)
FDP (51)
NPD, DVU, CDU/CSU (39 each)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bible-Abiding Christians: 38

I was always unsure how to best translate that name. Your translation looks to be better than anything I ever thought of.

That's also the translation used by the English Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Bible-abiding_Christians

Middle: 35

Who? What's the full German name?

Probably the "Allianz der Mitte" (ADM). Could be translated as "Alliance of the Center", I guess. Not to be confused with the "Zentrum" party. ADM is on the ballot in Baden-Württemberg only.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Weird things are happening in Thuringia: Althaus is back!

Apparently, he noticed that according to the Thuringian constitution he isn't allowed to leave office until a successor is elected by the state parliament. So his unconstitutional resignation was sort of retroactively withdrawn. He's back in office (officially he was never gone).

[Middle-aged Europe]

“Here come two people from the same government and tell us how it all went - not very exciting," he told the WAZ daily.

Yeah, politicians from FDP, Greens and Left Party have also complained that no opposition candidates are invited to this debate between the Chancellor and her vice chancellor.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, polls and analysts are saying that Steinmeier exceeded expectations. Overall, it is seen as either a tie or a very narrow Steinmeier win.

Haven't seen the debate myself either, only the post-debate coverage.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So I guess CDU/CSU 32/33% vs. SPD at 25% might be possible and that Black-Yellow will finally fail at the polling booth.

finally? The German electorate always chickens out at the last minute, it always fails.

That CDU and FDP ultimately fail to convince the voters isn't the voters' fault.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringia:

Bodo Ramelow (The Left) has now forfeited the minister-president position, provided that Chrisopth Matschie (SPD) does the same. Matschie (still?) refuses, but talks between The Left, SPD, and Greens will resume on monday.

Possible compromise candidates for the top job I've heard about recently: former presidential candidate Gesine Schwan (SPD) and Bundestag vice president Katrin Göring-Eckardt (Greens). Both denied it, so it might the media grasping for straws. Ramelow has basically said that he "could imagine a woman as minister-president" and now everybody tries to figure out what he meant with that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Frank-Walter Steinmeier wants to become opposition leader in the Bundestag now. Let's see if the SPD lets him. Uncertain is the future of SPD chairman Franz Müntefering. Perhaps more this afternoon or evening.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems that Steinmeier will become the SPD leader in the Bundestag. However, there's some growing resistance that he also becomes Müntefering's successor as party chairman. As possible chairmen are mentioned (more or less in order of likelihood): Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit, Minister for the Environment Sigmar Gabriel, Minister of Labour Olaf Scholz, SPD vice chairwoman Andrea Nahles.

Berlin's SPD has even called for the complete resignation of the current party leadership.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD secretary-general Hubertus Heil has resigned.

There's also incresing speculation that Sigmar Gabriel could become the next SPD chairman. This is based on the fact that Klaus Wowereit is unacceptable to the party's right and that Frank-Walter Steinmeier has become unacceptable to the party's left now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sigmar Gabriel:

Minister-president of Lower Saxony from 1999 to 2003, the SPD's sometimes rediculed "representative for pop culture" from 2003 to 2005 (under the alias of "Siggi Pop") , Federal minister for the environment since 2005.

Ideologically somewhere right in the the center of the SPD, therefore acceptable for all wings. Pragmatist who's able and willing to work with everyone if necessary: CDU, FDP or even the Left Party (emphasis on the last party with regards to 2013). All of this makes him something of an opportunist too, I guess.

Generally more aggressive and ambitious than Steinmeier. Served as the SPD's attack dog on nuclear energy during the campaign. A role which he fulfilled so good that he's not blamed for the SPD's defeat now.

If he indeed becomes party chairman, he's a possible (if not the likely) chancellor candidate for 2013... unless he screws up at some point during the next four years (and we had many SPD chairmen who screwed it up in recent years). Next in line: Klaus Wowereit, provided that resistance of the SPD's right fades.

Oh yes, Steinmeier was elected the leader of the SPD's parliamentary group in the Bundestag today. I wonder when Gabriel will kick him out and take over Steinmeier's new position as well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not my foreign minister.

He's pretty "dynamic" though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's *probably* just traditional Kubicki pantomime independence, but there are serious noises out of Schleswig-Holstein of the possibility of CDU and FDP failing to agree on a coalition.

This would be very funny , but I don't think this happen. Wolfgang Kubicki is a little maniac but he isn't stupid.

What would be the alternative anyway? SPD/FDP/Greens? Early elections? Grand coalition without Carstensen or Stegner (or both)?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I guess it's Cabinet nomination day. A lot of the CDU personnel is simply switching positions though.


CDU

Wolfgang Schäuble: moves from Interior to Finance

Thomas de Maizière: moves from the Chancellery to Interior

Ronald Pofalla: the CDU secretary general is promoted to the Chancellery

Franz Josef Jung: moves from Defence to Labour (also a demotion for his handling of Afghanistan)

Ursula von der Leyen: probably remains at Family (wanted to have Health; however, since the CSU got an additional ministry the FDP is pushing hard for four or even five ministries, and one of them is Health)

Norbert Röttgen: the current CDU/CSU party whip in the Bundestag is mentioned for Environment, still unconfirmed


CSU

Karl-Theodor von Guttenberg: moves from Economy to Defence

Ilse Aigner: remains at Agriculture

Peter Ramsauer: the current leader of the CSU group in the Bundestag takes over Transportation


FDP

Guido Westerwelle: becomes foreign minister and vice chancellor, obviously

Rainer Brüderle: the former economics minister of Rhineland-Palatinate takes over Economy

Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger: the blast from the past, Helmut Kohl's former justice minister seems to take over her old ministry again

Philipp Rösler: the current economics minister of Lower Saxony seems to take over Health, first German Federal Minister of Asian (Vietnamese) descent, with 36 years probably also the youngest member of the new cabinet


Open/undecided

Education: CDU and FDP are still fighting over that one, I guess; FDP deputy chairwomen Cornelia Pieper and incumbent Annette Schavan (CDU) are seen as the front-runners

Economic Cooperation and Development (Foreign Aid): no name is mentioned here yet, maybe Schavan gets dumped there if she loses her ministry, I also heard speculations that Westerwelle wants to merge this ministry with his own Foreign Affairs

[Middle-aged Europe]

The two remaining ministries are settled.

Education: Annette Schavan stays

Foreign Aid: FDP secretary general Dirk Niebel

[Middle-aged Europe]

And to Guttenberg. It seems everyone thinks he is a specialist for everything. I don't think that, but he comes from Upper Franconia and then he can't be so bad

Well, Guttenberg had actually worked on foreign and defence policy when he was still an obscure little Bundestag member. He hadn't had any prior experience with economy though.

And Niebel's appointment is kind of bizarre (but also funny), considering that the abolishment of his new ministry was part of the FDP's campaign platform.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Foreign Aid: FDP secretary general Dirk Niebel

Now where is that emoticon... ah. here:

I feel the same

You have to appreciate the positive aspect: You probably won't his face on TV for the next four years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why does there need to be a minister for finance and a minister for the economy?

I think Finance deals primarily with the budget, the taxes, and the spending. And Economy deals with the general state of the economy and the businesses.

So basically it's the finance minister's job to ensure that the government has enough money, and it's the economics minister's job to ensure that private companies can make make enough money.