More likely to flip? Georgia or NC?

[Tekken_Guy]

What state is more likely to flip and vote the opposite way it did in 2020? Georgia or North Carolina?

[Mr. Smith]

Georgia, but only in the same sense Romney always had a better chance with Virginia than Obama did flipping Georgia that year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually I think this is really tough call, and a large part of the answer depends upon if you believe the NPV will on average swing back right from 2020. It's clear GA is becoming better for Ds by the cycle, whereas NC has a lot of internally counteracting shifts, so for this reason assuming 2024 NPV will be similar to 2020, I'd say NC by a hair.

Also consider NC will have the governorship up whereas GA will have nothing up, so Ds will likely invest a bit more into NC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA now is more likely to vote R

[Vice President Christian Man]

GA is slightly more likely to vote Rep than NC is Dem but it's close as I think NC could become more of a purple state if current trends continue. The main reason Trump was able to win re-election was because the suburbs hadn't moved left enough and Dems still had room to fall in some of the rurals. But once the rurals max out since the GOP still has room to fall in the suburbs, it's more than possible that the Dems could win in 2028 especially with an R incumbency. I think it would take a Florida or reverse Arizona type of situation if Reps manage to improve over the next decade, especially considering that NC has more or less been steady at an R+5-7 type of state over the last 15 or so years.

[Schiff for Senate]

GA now is more likely to vote R

What? Assuming you're saying GA is likelier to go red than NC (though there are a few other meanings you could've had, admittedly), lol.

[THG]

Depends on who the GOP candidate is and the state of the national environment.

[Schiff for Senate]

Depends on who the GOP candidate is and the state of the national environment.

Of course it depends upon those obvious factors. Care to further elaborate?
Say it's Biden vs DeSantis, Biden vs Trump, Harris vs DeSantis, Harris vs Trump. What would you consider likelier to flip in each scenario? Personally, I'd say with DeSantis, it's GA, with Trump vs Harris, it's 50-50, and with Trump vs Biden, it's NC.

[Ferguson97]

Georgia, but I think both states vote the same as 2020.

[OriAr]

GA if DeSantis is the nominee, NC if Trump is the nominee.

[Alben Barkley]

Both vote D, so NC. I don't even have many doubts about it tbh. GA is going the way of Virginia, NC going... the way of GA, at a slightly slower rate if anything. In many ways it was an accident of fate that they happened to vote differently in 2020. People read way too much into such a tiny difference in the vote, which can probably be entirely explained by Stacey Abrams's turnout operation existing in GA but not NC. But GA proceeded to vote multiple times in a row for Democratic senators, while NC has had a Democratic governor since 2016 and trended left in 2022 House elections (including a surprise flip). I have no doubt both will be likely-safe D states by the end of the decade. Demographically they aren't as dissimilar as people make them out to be, if anything there is just more room for Ds to grow in NC.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Both vote D, so NC. I don't even have many doubts about it tbh. GA is going the way of Virginia, NC going... the way of GA, at a slightly slower rate if anything. In many ways it was an accident of fate that they happened to vote differently in 2020. People read way too much into such a tiny difference in the vote, which can probably be entirely explained by Stacey Abrams's turnout operation existing in GA but not NC. But GA proceeded to vote multiple times in a row for Democratic senators, while NC has had a Democratic governor since 2016 and trended left in 2022 House elections (including a surprise flip). I have no doubt both will be likely-safe D states by the end of the decade. Demographically they aren't as dissimilar as people make them out to be, if anything there is just more room for Ds to grow in NC.

Georgia is over 30% black, NC is just 20%. That 10% makes a massive difference in terms of Dem votes. To win NC Dems need way more support among suburban and exurban white voters to pull it off.

[DS0816]

What state is more likely to flip and vote the opposite way [in 2024 than] it did in 2020? Georgia or North Carolina?

If the Republicans win their next pickup of the presidency of the United States in 2024 … North Carolina will be a 2024 Republican hold. However, I think Georgia, Arizona, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District—each were 2020 Democratic pickups for Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden—have realigned to the Democratic Party. This means the next Republican presidential pickup winner sees the losing Democrat carry them anyway. (Related topic: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566.)

If the Republicans do not win their next pickup of the presidency of the United States in 2024—because the Democrats win a hold of the presidency—North Carolina will become a 2024 Democratic pickup. (No past electoral map has been duplicated. So, I anticipate at least one 2020-to-2024 change.)

The best bellwether states nowadays are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The next best bellwether state—more of a sleeper (for now)—is North Carolina. In 2012 and 2020, Democratic margins for the U.S. Popular Vote were (whole-number estimate) at +4. Re-elected Barack Obama and first-term-elected Joe Biden needed +5 to carry, in a 2012 Democratic hold and a 2020 Democratic pickup, the state of North Carolina. 2012 Obama carried 26 states. 2020 Biden carried 25 states. Of those states not carried—both cycles—next in line was North Carolina.

The White House runs through the Rust Belt trio. Among those Old Confederacy states—and we don’t tend to see presidential winners prevail without carrying in both areas—the best (sleeper) bellwether is North Carolina. (No longer is this the case with Ohio and/or Florida.)

Effective 2024 and 2028: The Rust Belt trio combine for 44 electoral votes; adding the Tar Heel State … that makes it a cumulative 60 electoral votes. Given the outcomes of both 2016 and 2020 … this makes enough difference.

Last point about North Carolina: Consider the two prior presidential realigning periods—the 1932–1964 Democrats (7 of 9 cycles) and the 1968–2004 Republicans (7 of 10 cycles)—and North Carolina carried in all but four. From 1932 to 2004, North Carolina backed the winners in 15 of 19 cycles. That is nearly four of every five cycles. For the 2012 and 2020 Democrats: Not carrying North Carolina was a miss. It is more than likely, in 2024, that North Carolina gets back on track with routinely voting for winners.

[Xing]

NC, since I think GA is more like the 5th most likely D -> R flip at the presidential level.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Depends on who the GOP candidate is and the state of the national environment.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Georgia is more likely to flip back to the GOP if the candidate is not Trump or a Trump protege. Kemp had no problems winning even though Walker lost. Although, Stacy Abrams was probably not the strongest candidate after her reaction to losing last time.

North Carolina seems to be pretty sticky where it is right now. It would need to be a huge landslide for it to flip.

[Sir Mohamed]

GA, narrowly. I still think it's pretty much winnable for a non-Trump GOP candidate while NC has been pretty stubborn over the last decade or so.

[Spectator]

Georgia is more likely to flip back to the GOP if the candidate is not Trump or a Trump protege. Kemp had no problems winning even though Walker lost. Although, Stacy Abrams was probably not the strongest candidate after her reaction to losing last time.

North Carolina seems to be pretty sticky where it is right now. It would need to be a huge landslide for it to flip.

A result around Biden + 6 or 7 nationally would likely see a NC flip. I think that’s roughly what would happen in a Trump rematch.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Every Republican but Walker won Georgia in 2022, and if I remember correctly, Georgia actually voted to the right of North Carolina in the House vote.  I think North Carolina does vote to the right of Georgia in 2024, but Georgia is definitely the more likely state to flip, especially if Trump isn't the nominee.

[pbrower2a]

Were I predicting a status-quo election, I would expect both states to flip. Some states do, and since 1980 (except for 1992) no more than five states have flipped in an election involving an incumbent President seeking re-election..

2020 -- five
2012 -- two
2004 -- three
1996 -- five
1984 -- five
1956 -- four

Everything went wrong for Carter in 1980, including a change of the political culture, in 1980; for the elder Bush the election was essentially a referendum on whether America wanted a fourth term of 'essentially the same'.

[Devils30]

Georgia is more likely to flip back to the GOP if the candidate is not Trump or a Trump protege. Kemp had no problems winning even though Walker lost. Although, Stacy Abrams was probably not the strongest candidate after her reaction to losing last time.

North Carolina seems to be pretty sticky where it is right now. It would need to be a huge landslide for it to flip.

A result around Biden + 6 or 7 nationally would likely see a NC flip. I think that’s roughly what would happen in a Trump rematch.

I think Trump might burn a lot of cash on Georgia only to lose the rematch by 3.5% or so. It is very inelastic and a 3.5% Dem win would basically just be a continuation of trends.

[TDAS04]

North Carolina, since Georgia's trends indicate it's fairly likely to stay D in 2024.

[THG]

Depends on who the GOP candidate is and the state of the national environment.

Of course it depends upon those obvious factors. Care to further elaborate?
Say it's Biden vs DeSantis, Biden vs Trump, Harris vs DeSantis, Harris vs Trump. What would you consider likelier to flip in each scenario? Personally, I'd say with DeSantis, it's GA, with Trump vs Harris, it's 50-50, and with Trump vs Biden, it's NC.

Yeah I agree with your scenarios. I think Trump likely loses NC vs Biden at this rate, but Harris is bad enough that NC is still winnable for Trump. With DeSantis assuming he stays on message, I think he has a shot of flipping GA but it's within 2 points either way, because of demographics. I'm not super worried about RDS losing NC vs Biden or obviously Harris though.

[Gracile]

Georgia, though that speaks more to how difficult a lift North Carolina will be for Democrats than anything else. I can envision the two states diverging further in 2024.

[SN2903]

GA even with Trump. NC isn't flipping