Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Johnson]

I hope the sanctions EU is preparing are really crippling on Minsk, as this is state-sponsored crime. I think Merkel is a naive for calling on Putin to negotiate a solution here. The only language Lukashenko understands is strength and determination.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1461390459939418113

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1462120582674358272?s=20

Wut? I'm not sure this is real. Sounds like fake news. There may be a buildup to fearmonger, I really doubt there will be a full scale invasion.

[President Johnson]

The US and NATO need to put up the strongest diplomatic defense of Ukraine that can possibly happen without causing World War 3. Every step Russia takes in the wrong direction without backlash can mean anything from half of Ukraine being annexed to Taiwan being annexed by China and other authoritarian countries across the world. If we do not take the steps now, we will be in a world of hurt later.

Agreed. Anything but a strong and coherent Western response would also embolden Putin with regard to other countries with a Russian minority, especially the Baltics, the Caucasus or the frozen Moldova-Transnistria conflict.

It's also unacceptable NATO ruling out certain countries to ever join the alliance since that violates the self-determination of these nations. You can't tell your neighbor which alliances he can join or not. And that NATO members of Eastern Europe are a treat to Russia is just an excuse since none of them would actually attack Russia. Putin just has no interest in Ukraine and others becoming functioning democracies that grant freedoms and produce wealth and prosperity because that would undermine his own position in Russia by showing the Western model is superior to his authoritarian state and the rule of oligarchs.

[President Johnson]

Sure.jan, Biden Admin will just do this because Mr. Putin wants so.

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1494317602646245377

Putin can't be so stupid and think NATO would agree to this ridiculous demand. He's probably bluffing in an attempt to "secure" his remaining sphere of influence, as he still thinks in these terms even 30 years after the Cold War ended.

Anyway, this is a blatant impudence. Putin is not dictating Poland, the Baltics or Germany if and now many US troops are staying here. Western governments should send him an unmistakable answer that we're not taking any such demands from him. Maybe it's time to actually impose even tougher sanctions.

[President Johnson]

Which tonight? Tonight U.S. time or tonight somewhere else's time?

February 30, to be exact

[President Johnson]

I wonder what percentage of Russians actually believe this crude propaganda. It really does not seem worth the effort to me.

I read that a poll found just 4% of Russians think the current escalation is Putin's fault. Obviously not a surprise, as there's pretty much no free press and propaganda in State TV all day long.

[President Johnson]

At this point, I fail to see what any additional summit with Joe Biden would accomplish. Putin pretends to be interested in talks, but pretty much does what he wants anyway.

Recognition of the separatist territories could indeed be the playbook for an invasion as Putin could say "they're sovereign countries and we're invading at their invitation and come to their defense against aggressive Ukrainian military".

The West should impose massive sanctions now and bury Nordstream 2 once and for all. Yes, it might not be in our immediate economic interest, but being dependend on Russia isn't in the long run as well.

[President Johnson]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.

Over recent weeks and on the recent Munich Security Conference, the Western alliance actually made a very united impression. I just hope they follow through.

[President Johnson]

Biden announces new sanctions. The EU is on board as well.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1495863415251906562

https://twitter.com/WOKVNews/status/1495863927716130818

[President Johnson]

However, I wonder whether Putin's latest decisions might backfire in the long term. What he does now is pushing the rest of Ukraine even further away from Russia and towards the West. Formerly neutral countries such as Finland consider joining NATO. EU and US are more united than ever, or at least in recent years. Basically he proves that Russian neighbors have to be fearful and invite increased NATO presence, which ultimately accomplishes to opposite of what he wants.

I just hope we sanction him back to the stone age so that this becomes the biggest strategical failure for him in the long run.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces de facto suspension of Nordstream 2 pipeline. Also, it seems like EU is about to impose very tough sanctions, including measures to restrict Russia's access to financial markets and a ban on trading with Russian government bonds.

https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1496079416203657218

[President Johnson]

Putin has apparently recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk in its original borders within Ukraine. However, separatists only control about a third of that territory. So Zelensky will probably be left with two bad options: Either resist with force and open the door or for a larger military confrontation and heavy casualties, or he pretty much surrenders these oblasts (regions) and looks weak.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/KatieBoLillis/status/1496527145325240324

Newsweek reported that US intelligence informed the Ukrainian government that an invasion could occur within the next 48 hours.

If that indeed happens, it's time for North Korea level sanctions.

Putin would also expose himself with such a move that the argument about NATO borders and distance or bufferzone was always a bunch of nonsense. Ukraine has borders to NATO members Poland and Romina, so Russia would actually move closer to NATO by occupying Ukraine as a whole.

[President Johnson]

Time for Iran level sanctions. The West must do everything below military action to take Putin's regime down at this point. He's a threat to global safety and a war criminal.

EU officials and Chancellor Scholz also just announced "crippling sanctions" that will be announced soon. EU officials even discuss the possibility of stopping gas imports from Russia.

Furthermore, Zelensky asked Turkey to close the Bosporus for all Russian ships, cutting off access to the Mediterranean Sea. I hope Turkey follows through.

[President Johnson]

German News report that Russian forces are moving towards Kyiv. I think Putin's goal is to oust the entire Ukrainian government, which he views as pro-Western fascists, and install a pro-Russian puppet government.

If I had to guess: Zelensky and his government will soon be forced to go into exile (Poland, UK or Germany, I'd say) and there will be two Ukrainian governments, the official one in exile and a puppet regime in Kyiv. That's what it will come down to.

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

[President Johnson]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

My sense is that they don't want to "shoot the final bullet" at this moment already, but I think it's inevitably going to happen.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496944661256097793?t=Tl0-GOlpOZeZ8VE2e...

Good, if Ukraine can't win with official military forces, they should drag Putin into costly asymmetric warfare. Sooner or later this would hurt his standing on Russia.

[President Johnson]

International Atomic Energy Agency is concerned with Chernobyl, though German news sources report that apparently nothing was damaged at the site so far.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1496923111022804992

[President Johnson]

I am trying to find more official sources but:

1.) apparently a good number of Finnish MPs, even from the left of the political spectrum, now want in on NATO

2.) Sweden and Finland will have a meeting with NATO tomorrow

This and US and EU closer and more united than ever. Seems like Putin is a real strategic genius.

[President Johnson]

Apparently Emmanual Macron has phoned with Putin. Not much else announced yet.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: German news sources report that EU plans to impose massive sanctions against Putin and Lavrov personally. Previously, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner strongly pledged to do so.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1497203448542081029

[President Johnson]

It very much seems that Chernobyl situation is under control and there's no radioactivity at concerning levels. At least we can be relieved about this one.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1497237647458283521