2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

So Partisan nonsense, got it. A fair map would try to make representation closer to the voter split.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Oh God, the pain.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I drew a Southern California map that is a) fair b) reflects COIs most of the time and c) just so happens to reduce Republican representation. I think the commission might try something like this out:

So Partisan nonsense, got it. A fair map would try to make representation closer to the voter split.

Look, I'm just trying to figure out how the commission is going to deal with OC since we all know they're going to have a Dem-bias. Huntington Beach+Long Beach and Southeast OC in with Escondido seems like the most workable solution.

If you're admitting it's not really fair, I've got no problem with it, I would expect the commission to cut our seats.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

[quote author=LordDrachir link=topic=373117.msg7780772#msg7780772 date=1605763220
If you're admitting it's not really fair, I've got no problem with it, I would expect the commission to cut our seats.

I am. My whole goal was to get the GOP down to 2 Southern California districts while keeping districts relatively compact.
[/quote]
At least it's a pretty map that foretells our soon.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

That band of four districts in North OC. HB and Westminster trended toward Trump, while NB and LB trended toward Biden in the Porter district.

Ah. I'm just shocked he picked up 3%

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I prefer something like this:

Are you concerned about the Fullerton, Irvine, Oceanside/San Clemente, and Escondido seats flipping?

Fullerton, no way. Irvine and Oceanside are even stronger for Biden than they were for HRC, so no. Escondido, maybe, but a swing seat is better than an R sink IMO.

Swing seats will probably trend D over the years, so it's better for y'all. Any of y'all know where Trump increased his vote?

That band of four districts in North OC. HB and Westminster trended toward Trump, while NB and LB trended toward Biden in the Porter district.

Ah. I'm just shocked he picked up 3%

What do you mean by that?

Statewide, he went from 31% to 34%

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

Still beats letting Sacramento Dems draw everything, no?

Nah, because now they get to claim it's unbiased map, and that republicans dominate redistricting so much, when dems still get Cali.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The commission looks fair to me no way that map passes. Also it doesn't look like there's a Hispanic majority district in OC which you can easily make.

I think one the republicans on the commission worked or donated big to Planned Parenthood, so it won't be fair.

A Berkely woman who donated to NARAL and Sierra Club. There's also I think a black Republican from West LA.

Ah, that should've been a disqualifier right off. Well, we're screwed, it'll be fun

Still beats letting Sacramento Dems draw everything, no?

Nah, because now they get to claim it's unbiased map, and that republicans dominate redistricting so much, when dems still get Cali.

A Sacramento map would eliminate everyone but McCarthy. Its not hard to do. Republicans probably get five or six seats via commission.

Got a point, jesus.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I think the entire commission is stacked to all just be basically Democrats? even if some of them are registered Indy or Republican.

Mhm

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I was bored and decided to make some Central California districts.

How to delete another's post?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12

Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+14
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

Anddddddd out of state opportunities once again take the forefront.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Another visualization was released yesterday (11/07), and well, it's something...



https://davesredistricting.org/join/33c10671-b884-4cfe-a898-213073b37680

WTF are those giant desert seats, by god, they're so bloody ugly. I always thought our current map had some wonky looking seats, but by god, at least you can actually have straight lines.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

It's only 3 points more D, I strongly doubt she would even win a Biden midterm

3 points more D is enough to make Garcia disfavored even in a Biden midterm.

That presumes the cycle is less than 3 points more R, I imagine.