OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Technocracy Timmy]

Corey Lewandowski calls for Cordray to be fired.

[henster]

I am getting Strickland vibes from Cordray, some rusty pol who is supposed to be the Dems savior and ends up getting buried from oppo dumps and negative ads. The guy hasn't run for anything since 2010 the same as Strickland.

[BuckeyeNut]

I am getting Strickland vibes from Cordray, some rusty pol who is supposed to be the Dems savior and ends up getting buried from oppo dumps and negative ads. The guy hasn't run for anything since 2010 the same as Strickland.

I'm honestly somewhat worried about Cordray being a paper tiger, but if he is, it's not going to be a Strickland-esque failure. Not that we know he'll run. Also, Strickland was, frankly, in a state of questionable health. Somewhat unsurprising given his age (75) and the toils of a campaign. Coredray might well have issues, but it won't be those.

[Rjjr77]

I am getting Strickland vibes from Cordray, some rusty pol who is supposed to be the Dems savior and ends up getting buried from oppo dumps and negative ads. The guy hasn't run for anything since 2010 the same as Strickland.

I'm honestly somewhat worried about Cordray being a paper tiger, but if he is, it's not going to be a Strickland-esque failure. Not that we know he'll run. Also, Strickland was, frankly, in a state of questionable health. Somewhat unsurprising given his age (75) and the toils of a campaign. Coredray might well have issues, but it won't be those.

Cordray was never a great campaigner, more of a wonk than a politician, but if he gets in he'll have the full force of the dems behind him, because hes make or break right now.

I've heard some sullen talks from democrats about their field lately, and one said hes resigned to a husted governorship at this point after the filing. He prefers that to the others

[BuckeyeNut]

I am getting Strickland vibes from Cordray, some rusty pol who is supposed to be the Dems savior and ends up getting buried from oppo dumps and negative ads. The guy hasn't run for anything since 2010 the same as Strickland.

I'm honestly somewhat worried about Cordray being a paper tiger, but if he is, it's not going to be a Strickland-esque failure. Not that we know he'll run. Also, Strickland was, frankly, in a state of questionable health. Somewhat unsurprising given his age (75) and the toils of a campaign. Coredray might well have issues, but it won't be those.

Cordray was never a great campaigner, more of a wonk than a politician, but if he gets in he'll have the full force of the dems behind him, because hes make or break right now.

I've heard some sullen talks from democrats about their field lately, and one said hes resigned to a husted governorship at this point after the filing. He prefers that to the others

I wish Cordray would just categorically rule out a run. We were supposed to be done with this nonsense months ago. Republicans just about always outraise Democrats in state elections -- looking at you, Leland -- and waiting on the big money -- such that it is -- isn't good for the field.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I hope Cordray give a hard "yes" or "no" to a run soon. Ohio Dems can't afford to fall much further than they are. That's not to say Cordray is the only Dem who could win. The field seems to be fairly decent right now.

[BuckeyeNut]

The thing to keep in mind is Labor Day Weekend is only a month and a day away. It's annoying, but not that far away.

I also recently discovered State Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill has a wholly public Facebook. Ignoring the fact that's very dumb, it looks like he might announce in January (why?) if Cordray doesn't get in.

[Rjjr77]

The thing to keep in mind is Labor Day Weekend is only a month and a day away. It's annoying, but not that far away.

I also recently discovered State Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill has a wholly public Facebook. Ignoring the fact that's very dumb, it looks like he might announce in January (why?) if Cordray doesn't get in.

I believe Bill is aged out, he might as well run. Even though his party dislikes him and wouldnt support him, and he only one because of a strong name in a non-partisan, partisan, race.

[BuckeyeNut]

Everyone in the Ohio Republican Party seems to be returning their money to ECOT founder Bill Lager. Most notably, former Speaker Householder, who is angling to get his old job back once Rosenberger is term-limited, returned $70,000. Householder may also have broken state election laws by soliciting an illegal amount of money from the Cuyahoga County and Summit County GOP.

Seems a little weird that Rosenbeger's going after Householder, but whatever. It's also very odd how many of the past Republican Speakers have all ended in "er." Householder, Batchelder, Rosenberger, presumably Householder again...

[Badger]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

[Rjjr77]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

[Rjjr77]

Everyone in the Ohio Republican Party seems to be returning their money to ECOT founder Bill Lager. Most notably, former Speaker Householder, who is angling to get his old job back once Rosenberger is term-limited, returned $70,000. Householder may also have broken state election laws by soliciting an illegal amount of money from the Cuyahoga County and Summit County GOP.

Seems a little weird that Rosenbeger's going after Householder, but whatever. It's also very odd how many of the past Republican Speakers have all ended in "er." Householder, Batchelder, Rosenberger, presumably Householder again...

I mean considering all the stuff happened last time Householder was speaker it doesnt surprise me Rosenberger doesn't want that. Also, He doesn't appear to be the favorite to win this time (although looks like if it is Smith that emerges he'd get it in 2 years.)

[BuckeyeNut]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

All the accusations are in The Dispatch, after all.

If ORP does screening any better than ODP, and I got a feeling they do -- recent incidents in Butler County aside -- Mingo's probably on the outs.

[Rjjr77]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

All the accusations are in The Dispatch, after all.

If ORP does screening any better than ODP, and I got a feeling they do -- recent incidents in Butler County aside -- Mingo's probably on the outs.

all the accusations are not in the dispatch, quite a few arent.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

All the accusations are in The Dispatch, after all.

If ORP does screening any better than ODP, and I got a feeling they do -- recent incidents in Butler County aside -- Mingo's probably on the outs.

all the accusations are not in the dispatch, quite a few arent.

I mean, I've seen a most of them there so...

[ShadowRocket]

I hope Cordray give a hard "yes" or "no" to a run soon. Ohio Dems can't afford to fall much further than they are. That's not to say Cordray is the only Dem who could win. The field seems to be fairly decent right now.

Same. If he isn't in by the end of September, then I think it will be time to give up the hope that he'll run.

[Rjjr77]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

All the accusations are in The Dispatch, after all.

If ORP does screening any better than ODP, and I got a feeling they do -- recent incidents in Butler County aside -- Mingo's probably on the outs.

all the accusations are not in the dispatch, quite a few arent.

I mean, I've seen a most of them there so...

There might be a few you don't know then

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

Its pretty well known, and pretty bad (not the worst) but also I know I wouldnt pump rumors that arent publicly proven.

All the accusations are in The Dispatch, after all.

If ORP does screening any better than ODP, and I got a feeling they do -- recent incidents in Butler County aside -- Mingo's probably on the outs.

all the accusations are not in the dispatch, quite a few arent.

I mean, I've seen a most of them there so...

There might be a few you don't know then

I said "most of them"   I'm only talking about the ones that have been confirmed in the media.  Obviously, there's other stuff too.

[BuckeyeNut]

Went to a meeting with Zack Space a few days ago. Pretty good on the whole. Brought up the fact he'll likely be the only Appalachian on either ticket, and that he supports "clean coal." That made someone laugh out loud when he said it, but it also looks like he has the UMW endorsement on lock, and that could deliver on the margins if the top of the ticket. He also seems to believe Cordray is running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Went to a meeting with Zack Space a few days ago. Pretty good on the whole. Brought up the fact he'll likely be the only Appalachian on either ticket, and that he supports "clean coal." That made someone laugh out loud when he said it, but it also looks like he has the UMW endorsement on lock, and that could deliver on the margins if the top of the ticket. He also seems to believe Cordray is running.

The bolded part is obviously very interesting, to say the least.  Space locking up the UMW endorsement is a big deal too (especially in a lower profile row office race like this) and since he's running for Auditor, I'm fine with Space being pro-coal if it helps him win.  

If Leland and Cordrey run, the ODP could have a pretty strong ticket on this cycle for once (even without Cordrey, we could do a lot worse than Schiavoni tbh).  Assuming Leland runs, I could easily see us picking up the Treasurer, AG, and Auditor's offices (especially if Yost and Faber's next fundraising reports are as underwhelming as their last ones).  Now if only we could just recruit Todd Portune for OH-1, Nicholas Celebrezze for OH-16, and find solid wave insurance candidates to run against Mike Turner and David Joyce...

[BuckeyeNut]

I agree with finding someone to run against Joyce, and IIRC, the woman running there right now is decent. Long time labor lawyer from Lake County.

I should also mention Space said he hasn't officially launched yet, so that should also be taken into account when looking at his somewhat lackluster mid-year report. As a former two-term congressman, he should still have some moneyed friends and he works at Vorys now, so that should help.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'll also add that while Space thinks Cordray is getting in, of the people who are currently in, it seemed as if his preference went: Schiavoni > Whaley > Sutton > Pillich.

Take that with a grain of salt, since he was clearly trying to avoid ruffling anyone's feathers.

[Kingpoleon]

Is there any chance of Mike Duffey running for a non-gubernatorial statewide office?

[BuckeyeNut]

Is there any chance of Mike Duffey running for a non-gubernatorial statewide office?

Nah. He's running for state senate. And after his terrible Twitter gaffe re: cutting Medicaid expansion, he will likely have trouble doing even that.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Democrats have set the first primary debate for September 12th in Martins Ferry, a small town on the Ohio River in Belmont County. Americans for Prosperity was organizing a Republican debate to also take place in September, but both Mike DeWine declined an invitation, and so it was canceled.