OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm reserving predictions until after we see the money.

In Other News: Sanders has cut a 30-second ad in support of the upcoming Issue 2, which fixes the amount of money state departments to pay for drugs to the reduced rate paid by the VA.

Also, Renacci will be joining Trump in Youngstown today. While I am reserving predictions, I wouldn't be too surprised if he wound up being a bit of a dark horse for the primary.

Renacci would probably be the weakest Republican in a GE (although a case could definitely be made for that being Taylor), so I'm not complaining

[Rjjr77]

I'm reserving predictions until after we see the money.

In Other News: Sanders has cut a 30-second ad in support of the upcoming Issue 2, which fixes the amount of money state departments to pay for drugs to the reduced rate paid by the VA.

Also, Renacci will be joining Trump in Youngstown today. While I am reserving predictions, I wouldn't be too surprised if he wound up being a bit of a dark horse for the primary.

I meant predictions for money raised

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm reserving predictions until after we see the money.

In Other News: Sanders has cut a 30-second ad in support of the upcoming Issue 2, which fixes the amount of money state departments to pay for drugs to the reduced rate paid by the VA.

Also, Renacci will be joining Trump in Youngstown today. While I am reserving predictions, I wouldn't be too surprised if he wound up being a bit of a dark horse for the primary.

I meant predictions for money raised

Ah.

Pillich will be the weakest Democrat, and Renacci will do surprisingly well. Husted will have raised the most on either side.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm reserving predictions until after we see the money.

In Other News: Sanders has cut a 30-second ad in support of the upcoming Issue 2, which fixes the amount of money state departments to pay for drugs to the reduced rate paid by the VA.

Also, Renacci will be joining Trump in Youngstown today. While I am reserving predictions, I wouldn't be too surprised if he wound up being a bit of a dark horse for the primary.

I meant predictions for money raised

Ah.

Pillich will be the weakest Democrat, and Renacci will do surprisingly well. Husted will have raised the most on either side.

Renacci has a lot of money though, so I'd be careful to distinguish between actual money raised and money he loaned his campaign.

[Rjjr77]

I'm reserving predictions until after we see the money.

In Other News: Sanders has cut a 30-second ad in support of the upcoming Issue 2, which fixes the amount of money state departments to pay for drugs to the reduced rate paid by the VA.

Also, Renacci will be joining Trump in Youngstown today. While I am reserving predictions, I wouldn't be too surprised if he wound up being a bit of a dark horse for the primary.

I meant predictions for money raised

Ah.

Pillich will be the weakest Democrat, and Renacci will do surprisingly well. Husted will have raised the most on either side.

Renacci has a lot of money though, so I'd be careful to distinguish between actual money raised and money he loaned his campaign.

I'm guessing in order of most to least raised:

D's
Sutton
Whaley
Schiavoni
Pillich

R's
Husted
Dewine
Renacci
Taylor.

Both Dewine and Renacci will put in some of their own money, I'm guessing renacci could put in as much as 5 million of his own, dewine probably 1.

[BuckeyeNut]

Conservative American Freedom Builders has commissioned a second poll from Tarrance Group, a D.C. based firm. This new July poll follows up on an earlier poll commissioned in January.

DeWine leads handily in both a four and two way primary. In the four way, he polled with 42% of the vote, while Husted polled with 18%. Taylor polled 11% while Renacci polled 5%. 24% of those polled were undecided. In a two way, DeWine polled with 49% to Husted's 29%. 21% of those polled were undecided.

The Tarrance Group also polled the down ticket primaries.

In the Auditor's race, they found Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo leads state Representative Robert Sprague, 16% to 15%. In the Secretary of State's race, they found state Senator Frank LaRose leads Majority Leader Dorothy Pelanda 19% to 13%. While there is no primary for Attorney General, the Tarrance Group found 58% of respondents didn't know current Auditor Dave Yost.

[Kamala]

It just feels like DeWine is already a spent political force. Then again, I don't know much about OH politics.

[Rjjr77]

Conservative American Freedom Builders has commissioned a second poll from Tarrance Group, a D.C. based firm. This new July poll follows up on an earlier poll commissioned in January.

DeWine leads handily in both a four and two way primary. In the four way, he polled with 42% of the vote, while Husted polled with 18%. Taylor polled 11% while Renacci polled 5%. 24% of those polled were undecided. In a two way, DeWine polled with 49% to Husted's 29%. 21% of those polled were undecided.

The Tarrance Group also polled the down ticket primaries.

In the Auditor's race, they found Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo leads state Representative Robert Sprague, 16% to 15%. In the Secretary of State's race, they found state Senator Frank LaRose leads Majority Leader Dorothy Pelanda 19% to 13%. While there is no primary for Attorney General, the Tarrance Group found 58% of respondents didn't know current Auditor Dave Yost.

Digging deeper it's clearly a Dewine internal, probably wouldn't have released the cross tabs, his approval is down from the last one, shows Husted in really good shape. Even though this poll has me up I'd be worried if I were mike Dewine

[BuckeyeNut]

Conservative American Freedom Builders has commissioned a second poll from Tarrance Group, a D.C. based firm. This new July poll follows up on an earlier poll commissioned in January.

DeWine leads handily in both a four and two way primary. In the four way, he polled with 42% of the vote, while Husted polled with 18%. Taylor polled 11% while Renacci polled 5%. 24% of those polled were undecided. In a two way, DeWine polled with 49% to Husted's 29%. 21% of those polled were undecided.

The Tarrance Group also polled the down ticket primaries.

In the Auditor's race, they found Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo leads state Representative Robert Sprague, 16% to 15%. In the Secretary of State's race, they found state Senator Frank LaRose leads Majority Leader Dorothy Pelanda 19% to 13%. While there is no primary for Attorney General, the Tarrance Group found 58% of respondents didn't know current Auditor Dave Yost.

Digging deeper it's clearly a Dewine internal, probably wouldn't have released the cross tabs, his approval is down from the last one, shows Husted in really good shape. Even though this poll has me up I'd be worried if I were mike Dewine

Both DeWine and Taylor have been clients of the Tarrance Group in the past, but that doesn't lead me to believe it's an internal.

It just feels like DeWine is already a spent political force. Then again, I don't know much about OH politics.

He kind of is. Husted's the worst opponent for the Democrats to face, by far. Hell, if Renacci somehow made it to the general, he might be even more challenging than DeWine.

[Rjjr77]

Conservative American Freedom Builders has commissioned a second poll from Tarrance Group, a D.C. based firm. This new July poll follows up on an earlier poll commissioned in January.

DeWine leads handily in both a four and two way primary. In the four way, he polled with 42% of the vote, while Husted polled with 18%. Taylor polled 11% while Renacci polled 5%. 24% of those polled were undecided. In a two way, DeWine polled with 49% to Husted's 29%. 21% of those polled were undecided.

The Tarrance Group also polled the down ticket primaries.

In the Auditor's race, they found Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo leads state Representative Robert Sprague, 16% to 15%. In the Secretary of State's race, they found state Senator Frank LaRose leads Majority Leader Dorothy Pelanda 19% to 13%. While there is no primary for Attorney General, the Tarrance Group found 58% of respondents didn't know current Auditor Dave Yost.

Digging deeper it's clearly a Dewine internal, probably wouldn't have released the cross tabs, his approval is down from the last one, shows Husted in really good shape. Even though this poll has me up I'd be worried if I were mike Dewine

Both DeWine and Taylor have been clients of the Tarrance Group in the past, but that doesn't lead me to believe it's an internal.

It just feels like DeWine is already a spent political force. Then again, I don't know much about OH politics.

He kind of is. Husted's the worst opponent for the Democrats to face, by far. Hell, if Renacci somehow made it to the general, he might be even more challenging than DeWine.

The group that ordered the poll is a Dewine group, its an internal.

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http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2014/10/former_josh_mandel_aide_now_a.html

[BuckeyeNut]

Ah, I see. For an internal, that's not so good for DeWine.

[Rjjr77]

Ah, I see. For an internal, that's not so good for DeWine.

fact that he leaked it, despite not being great, mean he needed to head off a bad fundraising quarter?

[BuckeyeNut]

I wouldn't say it was leaked... But yeah. Husted's probably going to be on top again financially. It'll be much too close for DeWine to be comfortable, at the very least.

[Rjjr77]

I wouldn't say it was leaked... But yeah. Husted's probably going to be on top again financially. It'll be much too close for DeWine to be comfortable, at the very least.

single news outlet (one thats known to be favorable to dewine) received it, not published on a website, put out by a group that is aligned with dewine. Thats a leak to me...

[BuckeyeNut]

The Luntz Global Group has conducted a new poll of both primaries.

In the Democratic primary, frmr U.S. Rep. Sutton polled in first with 21%. State Senator Schiavoni was a close second with 20%. Despite not having announced, CPFB Director Cordray polled in third with 17%. Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley polled at 10% and frmr state Rep. Pillich polled 9%. 22% were undecided/would not vote.

Schiavoni lead with swing voters, garnering 27% of their votes, while Pillich had 0% support among swing voters.

Luntz Global's assessment of the Republican primary differed somewhat from the Tarrance Group's.

DeWine still lead the pack, but with 27%, not 42%. Husted was still in second with 13%, not 18%. Taylor was still in third, but with 8%, not 11%. Finally, Renacci was still dead last, but with 3%, not 5%.

No head-to-head matchups were polled.

Not entirely sure what to think of the varacity of this one.

[Rjjr77]

The Luntz Global Group has conducted a new poll of both primaries.

In the Democratic primary, frmr U.S. Rep. Sutton polled in first with 21%. State Senator Schiavoni was a close second with 20%. Despite not having announced, CPFB Director Cordray polled in third with 17%. Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley polled at 10% and frmr state Rep. Pillich polled 9%. 22% were undecided/would not vote.

Schiavoni lead with swing voters, garnering 27% of their votes, while Pillich had 0% support among swing voters.

Luntz Global's assessment of the Republican primary differed somewhat from the Tarrance Group's.

DeWine still lead the pack, but with 27%, not 42%. Husted was still in second with 13%, not 18%. Taylor was still in third, but with 8%, not 11%. Finally, Renacci was still dead last, but with 3%, not 5%.

No head-to-head matchups were polled.

Not entirely sure what to think of the varacity of this one.

I can't find the crosstabs. It could be start of the active D campaigns releasing stuff that keeps Cordray on the sidelines.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Luntz Global Group has conducted a new poll of both primaries.

In the Democratic primary, frmr U.S. Rep. Sutton polled in first with 21%. State Senator Schiavoni was a close second with 20%. Despite not having announced, CPFB Director Cordray polled in third with 17%. Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley polled at 10% and frmr state Rep. Pillich polled 9%. 22% were undecided/would not vote.

Schiavoni lead with swing voters, garnering 27% of their votes, while Pillich had 0% support among swing voters.

Luntz Global's assessment of the Republican primary differed somewhat from the Tarrance Group's.

DeWine still lead the pack, but with 27%, not 42%. Husted was still in second with 13%, not 18%. Taylor was still in third, but with 8%, not 11%. Finally, Renacci was still dead last, but with 3%, not 5%.

No head-to-head matchups were polled.

Not entirely sure what to think of the varacity of this one.

I can't find the crosstabs. It could be start of the active D campaigns releasing stuff that keeps Cordray on the sidelines.

What's strange is Luntz is a hyper-partisan Republican pollster. Not sure what he's doing polling a Democratic primary.

[Rjjr77]

The Luntz Global Group has conducted a new poll of both primaries.

In the Democratic primary, frmr U.S. Rep. Sutton polled in first with 21%. State Senator Schiavoni was a close second with 20%. Despite not having announced, CPFB Director Cordray polled in third with 17%. Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley polled at 10% and frmr state Rep. Pillich polled 9%. 22% were undecided/would not vote.

Schiavoni lead with swing voters, garnering 27% of their votes, while Pillich had 0% support among swing voters.

Luntz Global's assessment of the Republican primary differed somewhat from the Tarrance Group's.

DeWine still lead the pack, but with 27%, not 42%. Husted was still in second with 13%, not 18%. Taylor was still in third, but with 8%, not 11%. Finally, Renacci was still dead last, but with 3%, not 5%.

No head-to-head matchups were polled.

Not entirely sure what to think of the varacity of this one.

I can't find the crosstabs. It could be start of the active D campaigns releasing stuff that keeps Cordray on the sidelines.

What's strange is Luntz is a hyper-partisan Republican pollster. Not sure what he's doing polling a Democratic primary.

someone paid him to im sure.

[Kamala]

Hmm, I think if Husted is actuality behind DeWine, it's a promising sign to the Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hmm, I think if Husted is actuality behind DeWine, it's a promising sign to the Democrats.

If Husted is only 14% behind DeWine, and not 22% -- to say nothing of DeWine only polling at 27%, not 42% -- the GOP is bound for an ugly, ugly primary. Especially since it seems like Husted should out-raise DeWine.

[Rjjr77]

Hmm, I think if Husted is actuality behind DeWine, it's a promising sign to the Democrats.

If Husted is only 14% behind DeWine, and not 22% -- to say nothing of DeWine only polling at 27%, not 42% -- the GOP is bound for an ugly, ugly primary. Especially since it seems like Husted should out-raise DeWine.

Even the 22% poll showed high Husted likeability, while Dewine's numbers had dropped from the previous poll.

I think it is more and more likely Husted wins this one, and if Cordray doesnt run and Husted does it will be a Lean R state.

[BuckeyeNut]

A Republican Congressman from Texas is asking for an investigation of Cordray to see whether or not he violated the Hatch Act by engaging in political activity as a member of the executive branch. He points to Bill O'Neill's statements saying Cordray will announce a run for Governor as evidence.

[Holmes]

That's so trivial it's stupid. Thinking anout whether or not to run for governor doesn't constitute political activity. If he announced before resigning from his position, that would be problematic, but this is just clearly a typical smear campaign from Republicans.

[TheSaint250]

The Hatch Act is violated so much that no one really cares anymore.

[Rjjr77]

That's so trivial it's stupid. Thinking anout whether or not to run for governor doesn't constitute political activity. If he announced before resigning from his position, that would be problematic, but this is just clearly a typical smear campaign from Republicans.

I mostly agree, but if he set up groundwork for a campaign, raised or solicited funds, or did some fake "draft" movement like Nina Turner did, it could be more problematic