OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Holmes]

That's so trivial it's stupid. Thinking anout whether or not to run for governor doesn't constitute political activity. If he announced before resigning from his position, that would be problematic, but this is just clearly a typical smear campaign from Republicans.

I mostly agree, but if he set up groundwork for a campaign, raised or solicited funds, or did some fake "draft" movement like Nina Turner did, it could be more problematic

Sure, but Hensarling is just pointing to Bill O'Neil's statement that he believe Cordray is planning to run. He doesn't kmow any more than we do. It's baseless.

[Mike Thick]

I was surprised that nobody mentioned this, but Cory Lewandowski was on a Sunday show yesterday (can't remember which one) railing on Cordray and suggesting that Trump fire him.

[Technocracy Timmy]

But we know Cordray violated the Hatch Act cuz he already made his own campaign website for Governor: http://www.cordray2018.com duh /s

The GOP is so scared of this guy it's unbelievable.

[BuckeyeNut]

The GOP is so scared of this guy it's unbelievable.

The OH GOP has been going after Cordray hard since November 9th.

[Rjjr77]

The GOP is so scared of this guy it's unbelievable.

The OH GOP has been going after Cordray hard since November 9th.

I mean hes the only one who can really compete with Husted/Dewine right now

[PragmaticPopulist]

The GOP is so scared of this guy it's unbelievable.

The OH GOP has been going after Cordray hard since November 9th.

I mean hes the only one who can really compete with Husted/Dewine right now

Maybe the GOP is afraid Cordray would reverse the trends set by Trump in Ohio. Maybe I'm being a partisan hack, but it could mean that the GOP thinks Ohio in 2016 could've been a one-off, and that Trump had a unique appeal that couldn't be replicated.

[BuckeyeNut]

Since the formation of the Republican Party, Ohio has always had a red tint at the state level. Said tint is now creeping into federal races as well, but Trump's big league win in Ohio was, while not unique, not something many other Republicans could quite pull off.

The GOP is so scared of this guy it's unbelievable.

The OH GOP has been going after Cordray hard since November 9th.

I mean hes the only one who can really compete with Husted/Dewine right now

Eh. I think people are getting tired of Mike DeWine. He's a bit spent. Easier to beat back than Husted, certainly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The GOP is so scared of this guy it's unbelievable.

The OH GOP has been going after Cordray hard since November 9th.

I mean hes the only one who can really compete with Husted/Dewine right now

Schiavoni could definitely beat DeWine.

[Rjjr77]

The money numbers came out, and they were interesting to say the least.

Betty Sutton:
$275k Raised
$210k Cash

Nan Whaley:
$455k raised
$394k cash

Connie Pillich:
$547k raised
$720k cash

Joe Schiavoni:
$342k raised
$245k Cash

Mary Taylor
$640k raised
$437k cash

Mike DeWine
$1.26m raised
$4.67m Cash (wrote himself a million dollar check)

Jim Renacci:
575K raised, (wrote himself a 4 million dollar check)

Jon Husted:
2.02 million raised (WOW)
4.28 million cash.

[BuckeyeNut]

I would, of course, be in a meeting when the mid-year numbers finally drop. Some loose thoughts:

1: Holy moly, look at Husted go.
2: Taylor's in trouble if Renacci's going this hard into his own money.
3: Those are bad numbers for Sutton, she should have the most national contacts of all the Democrats running.
4: Okay, maybe those aren't so bad numbers for Sutton. I'm predicting her base overlaps with Cordray the most and the big money isn't going to be flying until he makes a decision.
5: Not nearly as impressive as Husted, but Pillich did well.
6: Whaley did a weird, since she can only transfer $200k from her Mayoral campaign. Though I get why she did since she could solicit uncapped funds. This makes it hard to compare her to the others.

[BuckeyeNut]

We also have some juicy down ticket finance reports.

Secretary of State

State Senator LaRose (R): $455k raised, $555k on hand
State Rep. Pelanda (R): $130k raised, $93k on hand

State Rep. Clyde (D): $342k raised, $425k on hand

Auditor

State Rep. Faber (R): $192k raised, $789k on hand

frmr Rep. Space (D): $100k raised, $91k on hand

Treasurer

State Rep. Sprauge (R): $439k raised, $375k on hand
Franklin Co. Treasuer Mingo (R): $200k raised, $120k on hand

No Democrats have filed to run for Treasurer yet.

Attorney General

State Auditor Yost (R): $422k raised, $1.45 m on hand

frmr US. Atty Dettelbach (D): $630k raised, $732k on hand

[BuckeyeNut]

Some more loose thoughts:

1: Feeling better about Clyde each and every day.
2: Surprised with Space, but I guess he got in relatively late.
3: Guess Richardson only formed an Exploratory Committee for Treasurer. What a joke. There's only one race worth forming an Exploratory Committee over.
4: Leland, please run for Treasurer.
5: It's numbers like those that give me faith in Dettelbach.

[Rjjr77]

my take aways:
1.Husted's numbers are absolutely insane.
2. time out, lets talk about how INSANE husteds numbers are
3. Renacci writing a check is embarrassing since he said he had 2 mil in pledges, and didnt come near that
4. Mary Taylor is all but done
5. Betty Sutton was surprising, but thinking harder it makes sense with people waiting to see what cordray does
6. Connie Pillich was very surprising.
7. Frank LaRose is a force
8. Yost was underwhelming, but still in great shape

[BuckeyeNut]

I could still see Taylor emerging as a consensus candidate, but it's not close to likely.

I wonder if she would play second fiddle to Husted or drop down to run for Auditor again.

[Rjjr77]

I could still see Taylor emerging as a consensus candidate, but it's not close to likely.

I wonder if she would play second fiddle to Husted or drop down to run for Auditor again.

I don't think she can be Lt. Gov. Again, Term limits and all

[BuckeyeNut]

I could still see Taylor emerging as a consensus candidate, but it's not close to likely.

I wonder if she would play second fiddle to Husted or drop down to run for Auditor again.

I don't think she can be Lt. Gov. Again, Term limits and all

I wasn't sure if Lt. Gov. had term limits, but I guess it does.

Actually the smart thing for Taylor to do would be to drop down to run for OH-16 and work as a booster for Renacci's gubernatorial run. She should be able to scare away Patton and Hagan.

[Rjjr77]

I could still see Taylor emerging as a consensus candidate, but it's not close to likely.

I wonder if she would play second fiddle to Husted or drop down to run for Auditor again.

I don't think she can be Lt. Gov. Again, Term limits and all

I wasn't sure if Lt. Gov. had term limits, but I guess it does.

Actually the smart thing for Taylor to do would be to drop down to run for OH-16 and work as a booster for Renacci's gubernatorial run. She should be able to scare away Patton and Hagan.

Patton might still be tough to beat. I could see him beating MT there with his longevity and years of representing that area

[BuckeyeNut]

I could still see Taylor emerging as a consensus candidate, but it's not close to likely.

I wonder if she would play second fiddle to Husted or drop down to run for Auditor again.

I don't think she can be Lt. Gov. Again, Term limits and all

I wasn't sure if Lt. Gov. had term limits, but I guess it does.

Actually the smart thing for Taylor to do would be to drop down to run for OH-16 and work as a booster for Renacci's gubernatorial run. She should be able to scare away Patton and Hagan.

Patton might still be tough to beat. I could see him beating MT there with his longevity and years of representing that area

That's why she would have to leverage Renacci -- hypothetically speaking. Not sure it'd be a good trade, though Taylor's institutional support would probably help him some.

I still can't believe the bait and switch she pulled on Matt Borges.

[_]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

[Rjjr77]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

Damage him early, make him think twice about getting in blah blah blah, its not an uncommon or a bad tactic. We see it more often in senate races.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

[_]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried   Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Hopefully, I can already hear Blitzer calling the race for him.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

[Rjjr77]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Agree with a lot of this, with a day in the bank Husted's numbers are still wild. They sent shockwaves through this race.