MA-SEN Megathread: Senator Markey wins

[Gracile]

After AOC won, her supporters said it was a good thing, because Joe Crowley was old and out-of-touch and ineffective.  The reality is that Crowley was very in-touch with his district, in fact that was the main thing he did as a Rep was take care of the 14th.

Crowley's family lived in Virginia, and his children attended VA public schools instead of the schools where in the 14th, and AOC campaigned on this as well.

Yeah, and this was even a major talking point of AOC's 2018 campaign. I don't really have an opinion one way or another about that line of attack, but having a permanent residence outside of one's constituency can certainly feed into a perception that a politician is out of touch which a primary opponent could exploit.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The thing I think is missing in this contest is the fact the Kennedy family don't really have that great a track record in actually winning competitive races; 1980 bombed, the Lt-Gov race in Maryland was lost, the 2018 Illinois Primary was even more of a joke than 1980.

Joe Kennedy III won his primary in 2012 I assume because Barney Frank endorsed him & because he didn't face a significant primary challenge.

Besides I think the fact that the polls show he's getting 40-45% show he's popular; it's just not that easy to knock off an incumbent senator who hasn't really done anything to repel voters.

The only truly competitive race I can think of won by the Kennedy family was JFK's own election in 1960, and that was sixty years ago. And of course, we all know of what has been said about the electoral chicanery that took place in Illinois and Texas during that election. RFK of course had his Senate race in New York in 1964, but he was carried into office on President Johnson's coattails. And again, that was many decades ago. There is no member of the family in recent times who has successfully won a competitive race.

JFK's first Massachusetts Senate race in 1952 against incumbent (& future Nixon 1960 running mate) Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. was really close too: 51-48.

Teddy won the ‘94 Senate Race against Romney, which was competitive through September of that year.

[Calthrina950]

The thing I think is missing in this contest is the fact the Kennedy family don't really have that great a track record in actually winning competitive races; 1980 bombed, the Lt-Gov race in Maryland was lost, the 2018 Illinois Primary was even more of a joke than 1980.

Joe Kennedy III won his primary in 2012 I assume because Barney Frank endorsed him & because he didn't face a significant primary challenge.

Besides I think the fact that the polls show he's getting 40-45% show he's popular; it's just not that easy to knock off an incumbent senator who hasn't really done anything to repel voters.

The only truly competitive race I can think of won by the Kennedy family was JFK's own election in 1960, and that was sixty years ago. And of course, we all know of what has been said about the electoral chicanery that took place in Illinois and Texas during that election. RFK of course had his Senate race in New York in 1964, but he was carried into office on President Johnson's coattails. And again, that was many decades ago. There is no member of the family in recent times who has successfully won a competitive race.

JFK's first Massachusetts Senate race in 1952 against incumbent (& future Nixon 1960 running mate) Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. was really close too: 51-48.

Teddy won the ‘94 Senate Race against Romney, which was competitive through September of that year.

I forgot about those two races, but those were still a few decades ago. And EMK ended up winning reelection by nearly 20% in 1994.

[Morning in Atlas]

Debate last night.

The last debate Kennedy crushed Markey and it wasn’t close.

The first 20 minutes of this debate was more of the same and Markey appeared flat footed on the DJ Henry case. But he picked it up and made a decent case for himself as the night went along.

If you were undecided going into the debate you probably remained that way.

The hypocrisy is human. If the incumbent was closer to your faction of the party, you and MacArthur would be backing them as strongly as we paid Markey.

As far as I'm concerned, we'd both be "hypocrites". The only difference is that I'm not pretending I'm above it.

[Yogurt24]

It looks like turnout will be high. The secretary of State said that over a million people have already requested absentee ballots. Sorry I couldn't post the link. I would think that would benefit Kennedy?

[Logical]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/18/nation/more-than-1-million-mass-voters-have-requested-mail-in-primary-ballots-state-says/

[Intell]

I hear Kennedy running against Pressly would be difficult and I frankly think that's stupid, a black female like Pressley could easily lose against a Kennedy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hear Kennedy running against Pressly would be difficult and I frankly think that's stupid, a black female like Pressley could easily lose against a Kennedy.

The primaries are underway, should we wait until the primaries are over before declaring a victory

[Skye]

Sorry to interrupt your ideological fights, but I've been wondering something for a while and I wanted to ask here to see if anybody knows.

Do we know in which regions exactly each candidate will perform the best (outside their own CD's, of course)?

[MillennialModerate]

Sorry to interrupt your ideological fights, but I've been wondering something for a while and I wanted to ask here to see if anybody knows.

Do we know in which regions exactly each candidate will perform the best (outside their own CD's, of course)?

Yes

Western MA:
Expected to be Moderate Markey, appears to be Light Kennedy

City of Springfield:
Expected to be Lean Kennedy appears to be Light Kennedy

Central MA:
Expected to be Tossup, appears to be Tossup

City or Worcester:
Expected to be Moderate Kennedy, appears to be Tossup

Metro-West:
Expected to be Moderate Kennedy, appears to be Moderate Kennedy

Merrimack Valley:
Expected to be Light Markey, appears to be Moderate Markey

South Shore:
Expected to be Light Kennedy, appears to be HEAVY KENNEDY

Cape/South Coast:
Expected to be Heavy Kennedy, appears to be HEAVY KENNEDY

North Shore:
Expected to be Heavy Markey, appears to be  HEAVY MARKEY

City of Boston/Suffolk County:
Expected to be Light Kennedy, appears to be Moderate Kennedy

Middlesex county:
Expected to be Moderate Markey appears to be HEAVY MARKEY


Really if this race is as close as people say it is and I’m skeptical. I think it’s advantage Markey because Kennedy waited too long to go after Markey and expose him for what he is. But if it is as close then it’s clear that the reason IS and the race will swing on Middlesex County. Because even though Joe is controlling more parts of the state - the numbers Markey is racking up in Middlesex county are enormous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Harris initially helped Markey with Establishment support but now is helping Kennedy. BIDEN like Markey are seen as LBJ and Hubert Humphrey and Kennedy is seen as the Paul Revere of MA, reformer, that's why it has closed from 18 to 2 pts👍👍👍

Just like these Senate races, you have huge swings, one day McSally and Tillis are tied, but then you have Kelly and Cunningham winning by 5 pts

Bullock, Hegar, Bollier and Harrison are wave insurance,  so in case it's a close election, by VBM ballots irregularities thrown out, the Senate will vote Biden as the tie breaker, to certify Biden as Prez.

MT Rep race will close to watch as well

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

[Gass3268]

The Senate vs House divide here in terms of endorsements has been incredible.

Kennedy only has one Senate endorsement (Sinema) but has the endorsements the endorsements of both chairs of the Progressive caucus (Jayapal and Pocan), the New Dems (Kilmer), Blue Dogs (Murphy), John Lewis before he passed, and now the Speaker of the House.

Markey has senate endorsements ranging from Warren to Manchin, including leadership like Durbin and Schumer. Yet his only non-Massachusetts House endorsements come from Ro Khanna and AOC.

[brucejoel99]

Sorry to interrupt your ideological fights, but I've been wondering something for a while and I wanted to ask here to see if anybody knows.

Do we know in which regions exactly each candidate will perform the best (outside their own CD's, of course)?

We've had 2 polls show regional breakdowns thus far: the JMC poll showing Markey up by 3 over Kennedy, 44-41, & the recent SurveyUSA poll which showed Markey up by 2 over Kennedy, 44-42.

In the former, Markey held a 16-point lead in Boston (47-31) & a 15-point lead in Middlesex (50-35); in the latter, Kennedy held a 17-point lead of his own in Boston (52-35), while Markey still led in Middlesex, this time by 12 points (50-38).

So who knows how this ends up turning out?

(The rest of the regional breakdowns can be found at https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Massachusetts-Senate-Dem-Executive-Summary.pdf & http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1720a395-8d6c-4724-8aef-f3f96ccb5652)

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

Her endorsement was pivotal for Engel. I love you Nancy, but I hope your endorsement here has that same level of efficacy too.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

Remember, folks: the establishment hates socialists more than it hates fascists.

[Dipper Josh]

She sucks, She's always sucked, and she will continue to suck. Remember when the Progs lined up behind her because she was only getting challenged from the right(EVEN AOC!)? Guess what, SHE SUCKED THEN TOO!

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

Not particularly. If someone challenges an incumbent from the left who votes with Trump 70% of the time, they're an upstart and anyone who works with them needs to be cast out of the party. Squash them like the bug that they are!

If someone challenges a noncontroversial incumbent from the right, they're a "courageous leader" and a "rising star".

Let's all be real about this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

Remember, folks: the establishment hates socialists more than it hates fascists.

No offense, but I literally have no idea what you're talking about.  Ed Markey is not a socialist and Joe Kennedy III isn't a fascist.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

Not particularly. If someone challenges an incumbent from the left who votes with Trump 70% of the time, they're an upstart and anyone who works with them needs to be cast out of the party. Squash them like the bug that they are!

If someone challenges a noncontroversial incumbent from the right, they're a "courageous leader" and a "rising star".

Let's all be real about this.

This is really coming down to House vs Senate. I mean the chairs of the Progressive Caucus, both of whom were Sanders supporters, are backing Kennedy.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

Not particularly. If someone challenges an incumbent from the left who votes with Trump 70% of the time, they're an upstart and anyone who works with them needs to be cast out of the party. Squash them like the bug that they are!

If someone challenges a noncontroversial incumbent from the right, they're a "courageous leader" and a "rising star".

Let's all be real about this.

If I understand correctly, Pelosi will back every incumbent in the House during a primary, no matter if they're challenged from the right or the left (Remember the Omar endorsement a few days ago?).

It's surprising because this is a Senate race and she's making a move.

And if we're being real, this Kennedy challenge isn't exactly from "the right".

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

Remember, folks: the establishment hates socialists more than it hates fascists.

No offense, but I literally have no idea what you're talking about.  Ed Markey is not a socialist and Joe Kennedy III isn't a fascist.

Both are progressive, but Markey is tougher on corporate excesses and - more importantly - more willing to stick his neck out further than the party's moderate leadership might like. Said leadership is so relaxed about the fight against Donald Trump that they allow the Committee to make obvious mistakes like booking Warren for the Native American caucus, but - as we've seen with Neal v.s. Morse - can be very invested in ensuring that they retain the Democratic spots available.

This is the iron law of institutions at work: people in an organisation sometimes care more about their own place in said organisation than the wider interest of the organisation (in this case, the Democratic Party).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

Not particularly. If someone challenges an incumbent from the left who votes with Trump 70% of the time, they're an upstart and anyone who works with them needs to be cast out of the party. Squash them like the bug that they are!

If someone challenges a noncontroversial incumbent from the right, they're a "courageous leader" and a "rising star".

Let's all be real about this.

You're right, it is pretty hypocritical when #RoseTwitter pretends Ayanna Pressely is a "courageous leader" and a "rising star" for primarying a non-controversial incumbent from the right.  

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

Remember, folks: the establishment hates socialists more than it hates fascists.

No offense, but I literally have no idea what you're talking about.  Ed Markey is not a socialist and Joe Kennedy III isn't a fascist.

Both are progressive, but Markey is tougher on corporate excesses and - more importantly - more willing to stick his neck out further than the party's moderate leadership might like. Said leadership is so relaxed about the fight against Donald Trump that they allow the Committee to make obvious mistakes like booking Warren for the Native American caucus, but - as we've seen with Neal v.s. Morse - can be very invested in ensuring that they retain the Democratic spots available.

This is the iron law of institutions at work: people in an organisation sometimes care more about their own place in said organisation than the wider interest of the organisation (in this case, the Democratic Party).

Obviously, I've been opposed to Kennedy's candidacy since before he even got in the race because Markey has been such a strong and effective progressive voice in the Senate.  But with all due respect to Sawx, it seems pretty absurd to call this is a race between socialism and fascism

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

Remember, folks: the establishment hates socialists more than it hates fascists.

No offense, but I literally have no idea what you're talking about.  Ed Markey is not a socialist and Joe Kennedy III isn't a fascist.

You're obfuscating the last point I made. A primary challenger from the left is a pariah, a challenger from the (admittedly vague) right is a bright young man. Surely you see the hypocrisy from Pelosi, right?

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/vgmac/status/1296484779215532034

This is a bit of a surprise.

Not particularly. If someone challenges an incumbent from the left who votes with Trump 70% of the time, they're an upstart and anyone who works with them needs to be cast out of the party. Squash them like the bug that they are!

If someone challenges a noncontroversial incumbent from the right, they're a "courageous leader" and a "rising star".

Let's all be real about this.

You're right, it is pretty hypocritical when #RoseTwitter pretends Ayanna Pressely is a "courageous leader" and a "rising star."  

Many Atlas Progressives supported Caprano.