UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

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Tim Farron has resigned as Lib Dem leader.

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News sources now say there could be "hundreds" dead in the burned-down apartment tower, because several hundred are still missing ...

This is horrendous, and it's also seriously scary, because there are quite a lot of these re-clad tower blocks around in UK cities; I don't know whether the same materials were used.  It was also predicted by a residents' action group who were worried about fire safety specifically in that tower.

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Clegg lost for four reasons
1.) The Lib Dem vote share actually dropped between 2015 and 2017
2.) A lot of tories in Sheffield Hallam voted Lib Dem tactically in 2015 (the former Tory PPC sent letters to tory voters saying 'vote for Nick' as they needed him for a coalition, and to deprive Labour
3.) The tory vote share went up by 5k, so less voted tactically.
4.) Labour did a lot better. Sheffield Hallam is the stereotypical Corbyn seat; affluent, with enough young people to make a difference, higher turnout, switches from the Green party etc

2 and 3 are the key points.

Basically, in Sheffield Hallam there was a long history (back to at least 1992) of people who would have voted Labour in typical constituencies voting Lib Dem tactically (or semi-tactically; some would have been basically anti-Tory voters who didn't have a strong preference between Labour and the Lib Dems).  The Coalition and specifically Clegg's role in it, together with a very effective Labour campaign run by their 2015 candidate Oliver Coppard and, surprisingly enough,  the local Labour students, caused this vote to transfer pretty much en bloc over to Labour in 2015.  This would have been enough for Labour to win the seat then, if it hadn't been for the tactical shift among Tories you mention.

Then in 2017 Clegg's appeal to Tories was considerably weaker: there was no discussion of a potential coalition, he was less relevant anyway as he was no longer leader, and his Brexit stance won't have appealed to many of them.  (Hallam is fairly strongly anti-Brexit overall, but that would be less true among the natural Tory supporters.)  So the tactical votes went back to the Tories, and Clegg was lost without them.  The Labour vote didn't actually go up that much compared with the national result, but it didn't need to.  Student turnout was already quite high in Hallam in 2015.

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It seems there's already 40 Tory MP's ready to sign a letter of no confidence on Theresa May (they would only need a few more signatures in that case):

https://news.sky.com/story/forty-conservative-mps-prepared-to-call-for-theresa-may-to-go-11123282

If forty Tories are willing to threaten a vote of no confidence against the government unless May steps down... The real question there is whether or not May would call their bluff.

They're not talking about a Motion of No Confidence in Her Majesty's Government (though how anyone could have confidence in them at the moment beats me...); they're talking about a vote among Tory MPs about confidence in May as leader of the Conservative Party.

This is the first stage in the party's processes for getting rid of its leader, and was used in 2003 to get rid of Iain Duncan Smith.  Basically if 15% of the parliamentary party (48 MPs) send letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee calling for a vote on May's leadership, then there will be a vote (among Tory MPs).  If she lost that, then there'd be a full Tory leadership election (oh fun) and IIRC May would be barred from standing.

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Worth noting it's extremely difficult to get an early election unless the Prime Minister wants it. The Tories could switch leaders, change Brexit plans, or even slowly head towards no-deal all without anyone pulling the pin on the Election.

You not only need a vote of no-confidence in the Government, but you then have to wait 14 days for no new government to emerge. Basically either the Pro-Remain Tories (about 5-10 MP) or the Hard Brexiters (40 odd MPs) have to decide that Prime Minister Corbyn is worth the risk

seems possible:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016350766288789504

What is being talked about is not a motion in the Commons of no confidence in the Government, but a vote in the Tory parliamentary party about confidence in May as leader.  This needs 15% of the MPs (currently that means 48) to write letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee, who would then call a vote.  If May were to lose such a vote, there'd be a leadership election, from which May would be barred; this is how the Tories deposed Iain Duncan Smith in 2003.

I get the impression that they think they have the 48 who would be prepared to write letters, but that they're holding off for now because they think May would then win the confidence vote reasonably comfortably.  She'd probably need to win reasonably comfortably, not just win; John Major, when he forced what was effectively a confidence vote in his own leadership in 1995, supposedly had a private target, which he only just made.

There's no sign of any remotely sensible (by the low standards of the modern Tory party) alternative who actually wants the job right now.  And letting the Tory party membership loose with a ballot paper on which one of the options is Jacob Rees-Mogg is a scary thought, probably even to a lot of Tory MPs.

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Why are the Lib-Dems still stuck at 7-10% in the polls? Why are they not picking up the support of Conservative (and maybe also) Labor 'remainers.'?

This really pisses me off.

As a small-l liberal Labour Remainer (in terms of my votes in the last two General Elections -- I'm not a member of any party) who has voted Lib Dem in the past I am not exactly impressed with Labour's stance on Brexit but am in no doubt about who the party which is really to blame for the mess is.  So I want the Tories out of power, and until I trust the Lib Dems to get over their "equidistance" and prefer to work with Labour in a hung parliament scenario, I'm going to be reluctant to vote Lib Dem.  The fact that a lot of Lib Dems seemed to like shallow panderer-to-nutters David Cameron is particularly off-putting.

I would, though, vote Lib Dem in places like Bath and OxWAb where they are the main opposition to the Tories, and probably in places like Vauxhall, Birkenhead and Blackley & Broughton with particularly awful Labour MPs.

(As for Conservative Remainers, I think it's actually quite similar but the other way round:  they may not like Brexit but prefer it to Corbyn and stick with the devil they know.)

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Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

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Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

If O'Mara resigns, is Clegg likely to be the LibDem candidate?

No, Liberal Democrats selected their candidate for that months ago (it's one of the local councillors).

She isn't a councillor, actually.  I think that if there's a by-election (which there may well not be; O'Mara says he's staying on as an independent) Lib Dems select again, but I imagine in this case they'd choose the same candidate.

Clegg said he didn't want to stand again.

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Rumours are spreading around again that the threshold of 48 letters from Tory MPs for a vote of no confidence in May's leadership either has been or is about to be reached.  We've been here before and nothing happened, though, so we'll see.

If a vote does happen, I suspect the question is not so much whether May actually loses, which I would think is unlikely, but whether she does badly enough that her position is felt to be untenable.

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@SamCoatesTimes
1922 motion of confidence

The trigger is 15% of the Parliamentary Party

2 MPs - Elphicke and Griffiths, have whip suspended

So current hurdle is 47 letters of no confidence (not 48)

I'm not sure about this; it depends how the rule is written.  I believe there are currently 315 Tory MPs, excluding Elphicke and Griffiths.  15% of 315 is 47.25, so if you round that down you do indeed get 47, but there's an alternative interpretation that you need 48 to have at least 15%.

(Not that it really matters, as if the most letters they can get is 47 their challenge isn't going anywhere anyway.)

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Who are the pro-deal Lib Dem and the pro-deal Labourites? I can think of a couple of hardcore Brexiteer Labourites but not even sure they'd vote in favor of the deal, and I thought all of the parliamentary Lib Dems were now Remainers.

I can think of Caroline Flint, she voted remain but represents a large leave constituency in south Yorkshire, she said she might back the governments deal
Gareth snell and Gloria De Piero, already declared they won't back the deal (both Labour MPs representing large leave areas in the midlands)

I don't think of any Lib Dem MP would vote for the deal...
 

The Lib Dem MP who is voting for the deal is Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne); he pledged that he would during the last election campaign.  Eastbourne voted Leave.

Flint is indeed the Labour MP who is expected to vote for it.  The Guardian's list also has ex-Labour Frank Field as an "Unconfirmed" For.  A few other Labour MPs are "Unconfirmed" Against.  Gareth Snell (Stoke on Trent Central) was someone who I thought might have voted for it, but he has said he will vote against.

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@JamesERothwell

Labour Leave expects 20 Labour MPs to abstain on Brexit deal, maybe 1 or 2 will back it, rest to reject. Warns party has been taken over by Remainers while grassroots strongly support a clean Brexit

^^ that's an interesting point, how many will abstain?!

Maybe a few will, but "Labour Leave" are talking utter rubbish (as usual) if they think that the Labour Party "grassroots", by any sensible interpretation of the word, support a "clean Brexit" (strongly or otherwise).

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@BethRigby
Stephen Lloyd has resigned the Lib Dem whip: is this because he’s going to defy party and vote FOR May’s Deal

Reading between the lines, it may be a combination of that and being on the receiving end of criticism from the party membership for his stance.  That he was going to vote with the Government has been known for some time.

(BTW Audrey: please could you try and cut down on the number of journalists' tweets you're cutting and pasting without comment?  They're flooding the thread and making it very hard to have any actual discussion in it.)

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@JamesERothwell

Labour Leave expects 20 Labour MPs to abstain on Brexit deal, maybe 1 or 2 will back it, rest to reject. Warns party has been taken over by Remainers while grassroots strongly support a clean Brexit

^^ that's an interesting point, how many will abstain?!

Maybe a few will, but "Labour Leave" are talking utter rubbish (as usual) if they think that the Labour Party "grassroots", by any sensible interpretation of the word, support a "clean Brexit" (strongly or otherwise).

I think they meant Labour leave areas like hartlepool, stoke-on-trent, Bassetlaw, Ashfield and Don Valley?!

Well, the tweet you quoted didn't say that, and even if that's what they intended polling evidence suggests that a majority or close to one of Labour supporters even in those places support a second referendum.

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That reduces the Lib Dem presence in the Commons from 12 to 11, with a current total of 9 Independents.

It's getting quite hard to keep track of the Independents.

Sylvia Hermon (North Down): elected as Independent.  Originally an Ulster Unionist, first elected in 2001, left the party over their alliance with the Tories in the 2010 election.  She's a Remainer but is supporting May's deal.

John Woodcock (Barrow & Furness), Jared O'Mara (Sheffield Hallam), Frank Field (Birkenhead): elected as Labour, resigned whip for various reasons.  Field is pro-Brexit and may well support May's deal; O'Mara is a Remainer and won't; Woodcock is also a Remainer but I think is one of the more likely opposition MPs to support it.

Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne): elected as Lib Dem, resigned whip.  Voted Remain but supporting the deal.

Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North), Ivan Lewis (Bury South): elected as Labour, whip suspended.  Hopkins is pro-Brexit (of the "Lexit" type) but I don't think he'll vote with the Tories on this; Lewis is expected to vote against the deal.

Charlie Elphicke (Dover), Andrew Griffiths (Burton): elected as Tories, whip suspended.  The Guardian's list has Elphicke voting against the deal and Griffiths for.

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Half of voters in North back a united Ireland after May’s Brexit

55% of people would back a United Ireland including 11% of unionists, but 42% said they would prefer to stay in the UK, while 3% did not know.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/half-of-voters-in-north-back-a-united-ireland-after-mays-brexit-d8zlmvk2v

^^ Freedom poll

NB they actually asked several questions, and the numbers quoted above are for a No Deal scenario.

Under May's deal, they got a 48%-48% tie (though with rather more of the voters against a United Ireland certain of their vote).  Under No Deal they got 55% for reunification and 42% against; under No Brexit they got only 29% for reunification and 60% against.

Details are at https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018

Health warning: Northern Ireland polling is not particularly reliable, and I don't particularly trust questions based on assuming hypothetical scenarios either.  But this does suggest that perhaps the DUP should be careful what they wish for...

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I find it ironic that a party called "Ourselves Alone" wants Ireland to be part of the Eurozone.

"Sinn Féin" doesn't actually mean "Ourselves Alone".  Simply "Ourselves" or "We Ourselves" are better translations.

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Would a secular Northern Ireland be more or less likely to leave the UK and join Ireland?

Also, since the DUP didn't support the GFA (and thus, a soft  border) back in the 90s, why didn't they go for a hard border? A hard border would make things much easier for May and Brexit.

It's the Republic of Ireland, and hence the EU, who don't want a hard border, not the DUP.  (Well, no-one sane in Northern Ireland wants one either.)  The DUP's antics make me think they would actually quite like one, but that they realise that they can't actually say that.

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Fiona Onasanya (MP for Peterborough since 2017) has been convicted of perverting the course of justice. It is considered highly likely that there will be a by-election in Peterborough. Said town of course has such a bad record of selecting representatives that it's basically the Rochdale of the Fens.

Her two immediate predecessors seemed to be in a contest to see who could have the bigger negative personal vote.  Peterborough is unusual in being Tory in 2005 but Labour in 2017, and I got the impression that was basically why.

In other news, a handful of Tory MPs (Nick Boles, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston) have indicated that they won't continue to support the Government if it moves to No Deal.

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That reduces the Lib Dem presence in the Commons from 12 to 11, with a current total of 9 Independents.

It's getting quite hard to keep track of the Independents.

Sylvia Hermon (North Down): elected as Independent.  Originally an Ulster Unionist, first elected in 2001, left the party over their alliance with the Tories in the 2010 election.  She's a Remainer but is supporting May's deal.

John Woodcock (Barrow & Furness), Jared O'Mara (Sheffield Hallam), Frank Field (Birkenhead): elected as Labour, resigned whip for various reasons.  Field is pro-Brexit and may well support May's deal; O'Mara is a Remainer and won't; Woodcock is also a Remainer but I think is one of the more likely opposition MPs to support it.

Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne): elected as Lib Dem, resigned whip.  Voted Remain but supporting the deal.

Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North), Ivan Lewis (Bury South): elected as Labour, whip suspended.  Hopkins is pro-Brexit (of the "Lexit" type) but I don't think he'll vote with the Tories on this; Lewis is expected to vote against the deal.

Charlie Elphicke (Dover), Andrew Griffiths (Burton): elected as Tories, whip suspended.  The Guardian's list has Elphicke voting against the deal and Griffiths for.

Update: both Elphicke and Griffiths had the whip restored so they could vote in the confidence vote; this was somewhat controversial as the investigations had not reached a conclusion.

Lewis has now followed Field, Woodcock and O'Mara in resigning from the Labour Party altogether.

And we also have to add Fiona Onasanya (Peterborough), as discussed above.  So there are currently 8 Independents, 6 of whom were elected as Labour.

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Three Labour MPs voted with the Government: Ian Austin (Dudley North), Kevin Barron (Rother Valley), John Mann (Bassetlaw).  All other Labour MPs voted against, except for Deputy Speakers and Paul Flynn (Newport West) who I understand is too ill to attend.

Among the Independents, Sylvia Hermon (North Down), Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne) and Frank Field (Birkenhead) voted with the Government; Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North), Ivan Lewis (Bury South), Jared O'Mara (Sheffield Hallam), Fiona Onasanya (Peterborough) and John Woodcock (Barrow & Furness) voted against.

118 Tories voted against the Government, 196 (plus 2 tellers) with.  No abstentions, other than Eleanor Laing who is a Deputy Speaker and so doesn't vote.

All SNP, Plaid, Green and DUP MPs voted against.

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202-432. Was that even worse than expected or on par?

A bit worse.

I think it was worse than Corbyn was expecting, too, as he said it was the biggest defeat since 1924, but it was actually bigger than any of the 1924 ones.

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Three Labour MPs voted with the Government: Ian Austin (Dudley North), Kevin Barron (Rother Valley), John Mann (Bassetlaw).  All other Labour MPs voted against, except for Deputy Speakers and Paul Flynn (Newport West) who I understand is too ill to attend.

Among the Independents, Sylvia Hermon (North Down), Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne) and Frank Field (Birkenhead) voted with the Government; Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North), Ivan Lewis (Bury South), Jared O'Mara (Sheffield Hallam), Fiona Onasanya (Peterborough) and John Woodcock (Barrow & Furness) voted against.

118 Tories voted against the Government, 196 (plus 2 tellers) with.  No abstentions, other than Eleanor Laing who is a Deputy Speaker and so doesn't vote.

All SNP, Plaid, Green and DUP MPs voted against.

Which Tory MPs voted against the Brexit deal? The Reamainers or the Hard Brexit supporters?

Both.

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What % do you give the no confidence of succeeding? 25%? 33%? The Tories won't willingly hand power to Corbyn, so it requires either a DUP betrayal or the Tories supporting a new election.

Edit: DUP state they will back May, so I put the % now even lower maybe 15%

It would need about eight Tories to vote against her, so I don't think there's a realistic path.

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In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

I can understand why you might have concerns about Corbyn (I do myself to some extent, though I'd much rather have him than Brexiteering Tories) but calling him a "hardcore anti-semite" is ridiculous and does your case no good whatsoever.