UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[IceAgeComing]

And there's a reason why the Left, although skeptical of the EUs policies in many areas, generally supported Remain in the referendum at the same time as opposing deals such as CETA or TTIP.

I have political differences with the EU but broadly in the world where we currently live its a positive force in the UK - Scotland benefitted a lot from regional development policies and had significant influence on European fisheries policies through the European Parliament and the Committee of the Regions (more than we'll likely have on UK policy since it seems that fishing will be a reserved matter for some reason) plus a significant amount of important legislation when it comes to workers rights, product safety, consumer protections and environmental policy comes directly from the EU.  Plus compared to any other supranational organisation it is incredibly democratic and although it tends to be incredibly bureaucratic (as I've seen first hand) the level of public oversight of the EU is significant higher than of, say, the WTO or other very powerful organisations.

On the other hand those other trade relationships between the EU and Canada (in the case of CETA) and the stalled discussions between the US and the EU (TTIP) don't have that democratic oversight or any of those other positive benefits for the average European citizen; instead there is no way for ordinary people to affect those deals at all and that is a negative.  The problem isn't free trade by itself (I'm an internationalist and think that breaking down barriers is a positive thing) but only breaking down barriers for things that rich people can take advantage of while not giving direct benefits for ordinary people - Freedom of Movement is one of those in my eyes; but you can also include things like strong workers protections and environmental protections can actually help mitigate the harm that free trade can cost by creating a more level playing field and preventing a race to the bottom when it comes to those issues.

Broadly as the EU has expanded its policy areas to include environmental and consumer affairs issues you've seen the Left respect it more as an institution that, while having significant problems, plays a strong role in standing up to the absolute excesses of Tory policies in many areas.  One thing that I am incredibly worried about post-Brexit is what happens to important bits of policy like the Working Time Directive or the Minimum Holiday Allowance: both of which are important bits of policy that protect workers from overwork that only exist in the UK because we were an EU member and in a world where we have a Tory government in the future with no EU I fear that we see important protections like that stripped in the name of "deregulation".  When you think about the policies that exist purely from being an EU member it really is remarkable how important lots of them are...

As a Labour Leave voter, i thought we'd be heading for a Norway or swiss style brexit, with controls over fisheries, independent Trade policy, etc.

This was literally never promised though - at least by any person during the referendum campaign who would be in a position to deliver this sort of deal.  It was evidently clear from the role that immigration played in the campaign that a Norway deal was impossible and that it would be a looser relationship between the UK and the EU.

Also in many of those areas; although Norwegian policy is technically separate often it has to be very similar to EU policy because of their ties to the EEA forcing policies that aren't dramatically different, in order to prevent complications.  Consider trade for a second: you can't have trade policies that are dramatically different from the EU if Britain was in the EEA since you have to consider the land border with the Republic and if you pursued very different trade policies you would need to have relatively strict customs checks between the two and that is something that's very hard to implement and which would require lots of investment.

When it comes to fisheries policies I think that the impact of the CFP is overstated: I read a study last year that I can't currently find that attributed the decline in employment in Scotland's fishing industry to factors like modernisation and fleet decommissioning (which is I believe Scottish Government policy but it could be UK Government) along with failures of successive UK and Scottish Governments to support the small-scale fishing industry.  Indeed you could argue that the CFP has actually helped the long-term survival of fishing: the CFP focuses a lot on sustainability and that focus has led to a recovery in British fish stocks - especially Cod which, as some might remember, ended up being overfished significantly so by the early 2000s there weren't many Cod left.  Its easy to point at the CFP and assume that's to blame when the fact may well be that fishing, like many industries, is less labour intensive now than in the past plus this renewed focus on sustainable fishing (which would have been pursued by any sensible government) also creates additional challenges for fishing communities as it limits the amount that can be fished to ensure that we don't overfish.  To just blame the EU and not the UK government (or the devolved administrations where appropriate) is I believe placing the blame in entirely the wrong place.

[Zaybay]

If you think Brexit is being handled badly now , wait till you see it handled by Corbyn.

It will be handled better?
This is just my American perspective on the parties, but I think I have a rather decent handle.
 
I think you miss the whole reason Brexit has been such a problem for the current government. While the Tory/Conservative party is rather ideologically concise, Brexit remains a prevalent issue in the coalition. You have many folks on different sides of the aisle that are in the Tory party, and want to either see a Soft Brexit/Hard Brexit/ no brexit competing with each other for dominance. In the referendum, even though Cameron urged for staying, most C voters voted to leave. The Tory party tried to make itself the party of Brexit and a stable transition during May's tenure, and she failed. She failed to understand the tide and how it was changing, and how UKIP voters may not like the rest of her ideas(many during the 2017 election thought May would win most of the UKIP, but instead they split down the middle). And while I believe many are regretting that vote, its clear that the Tory party cannot stop Brexit, lest they anger a majority of their base. This has just kept the seems holding the party to weaken, and, as we saw in the last couple days, the party is collapsing in on itself, unable to make any progress. Literally DUP would do a better job.

Compare that to the Labour party, the "Big Tent" party of The UK. When it comes to Brexit, the divide is actually less bitter. Sure, there are still some divides, but they are nothing compared to the Tories. The Labour party also doesnt have the pressure to keep this issue going as the Tories do. The remain vote was constituted of mostly Labour voters, and as remain has become more popular after the vote, there isnt much electoral backlash to stop pushing the issue. Even Corbyn, who has always distrusted the EU, sees this. His positions on the issue are rather moderate, and have continued to moderate as time goes on, and I see his government either going for a soft Brexit, or putting it back on referendum, where it would likely be voted to remain. The Labour party has always been uncomfortable about the issue, and Im sure they will see across the aisle at how much damage it did to a once dominate party, and focus on other issues. Someone needs to nationalize those railways!

Sorry Brits if I made any mistakes.

[EPG]

It's great to have discourse about the correct Left critical analysis to the EU, but ultimately it won't matter unless Corbyn can figure out how to convince normal voters he is the normal candidate this time. Since 2001, the weird or creepy candidate loses and there is little evidence of a big shift to him this time. He should hope for Boris Johnson to win the leadership.

[King of Kensington]

There's a belief - I don't know how true it is - that a lot of "soft" Labour voters did so because of Brexit.  

[cp]

There's a belief - I don't know how true it is - that a lot of "soft" Labour voters did so because of Brexit.  

If I understand you correctly, this 'belief' is that a sizeable portion of the 2017 Labour vote was comprised of ardent remainers who would have otherwise never voted Labour.

There is some evidence to support this, but there are also a lot of countervailing factors that cast doubt on it. Firstly, the places that those votes would have likely turned up (the Home Counties) were so solidly Tory beforehand, this shift didn't really make any difference in terms of seats. Second, if this shift did exist it was more than compensated for by ex-UKIPers jumping ship to the Tories. Thirdly, the profile of the sort of voter you're talking about - i.e. someone who was not voting Labour before 2017 and did so because a Brexit-supporting Tory was anathema - is almost certain to be an economically moderate/conservative social liberal - that is to say, someone who would find Corbyn just as unacceptable as Brexit.

I don't doubt there were a few voters who fit this profile, but I just don't see them making any meaningful difference.  

[Tintrlvr]

There's a belief - I don't know how true it is - that a lot of "soft" Labour voters did so because of Brexit.  

If I understand you correctly, this 'belief' is that a sizeable portion of the 2017 Labour vote was comprised of ardent remainers who would have otherwise never voted Labour.

There is some evidence to support this, but there are also a lot of countervailing factors that cast doubt on it. Firstly, the places that those votes would have likely turned up (the Home Counties) were so solidly Tory beforehand, this shift didn't really make any difference in terms of seats. Second, if this shift did exist it was more than compensated for by ex-UKIPers jumping ship to the Tories. Thirdly, the profile of the sort of voter you're talking about - i.e. someone who was not voting Labour before 2017 and did so because a Brexit-supporting Tory was anathema - is almost certain to be an economically moderate/conservative social liberal - that is to say, someone who would find Corbyn just as unacceptable as Brexit.

I don't doubt there were a few voters who fit this profile, but I just don't see them making any meaningful difference.  

To the extent such voters exist, they probably voted Lib Dem in 2010 before voting Conservative in 2015, so they're not exactly going to be hyper-loyal Labour voters going forward in any case. Victoria Borwick can attest that they exist, but they're not numerous outside of just a handful of seats.

[136or142]

Why are the Lib-Dems still stuck at 7-10% in the polls? Why are they not picking up the support of Conservative (and maybe also) Labor 'remainers.'?

This really pisses me off.

[cp]

Why are the Lib-Dems still stuck at 7-10% in the polls? Why are they not picking up the support of Conservative (and maybe also) Labor 'remainers.'?

This really pisses me off.

The Lib Dems have never really recovered from their post-Coalition 2015 catastrophe. Some former/would-be Lib Dem voters (myself included) are still upset enough about what they did while in power to not really bother with them. Add to that, the Lib Dem leadership is rather staid. Vince Cable's  comes off more like yesterday's man and a defender of the status quo than a fresh face with new ideas. Meanwhile, for all its problems, Labour's leadership looks like it can offer a viable alternative to the Tories, polarizing as that alternative might be.

It's worth keeping in mind that the LibDems are still quite active and competitive on a local level. They've had some great by-election results in the past few months and may do again today: my husband is out canvassing for them in Stoke D'Abernon right now

[Izzyeviel]

Why are the Lib-Dems still stuck at 7-10% in the polls? Why are they not picking up the support of Conservative (and maybe also) Labor 'remainers.'?

This really pisses me off.

First past the post.

There are encouraging signs. They just had their best local election results for a decade, highest membership ever, and actually made money last year after spending the coalition years leaking money.  They normally poll 15-20% (before 2010). They've pissed off their base with the coalition, and Jeremy Corbyn has a Trump like effect on the British left/youth. He can do no wrong in their eyes. Half a million turned out last week to protest Brexit, most of them were Labour voters. Jeremy Corbyn supports a hard Tory brexit... but they refuse to believe anything negative about him.

But anyway, the good news for the Lib Dems, is that they are losing the toxicity of the coalition years, There is plenty of evidence to suggest that under the right circumstances we can get people to vote for us.

[YL]

Why are the Lib-Dems still stuck at 7-10% in the polls? Why are they not picking up the support of Conservative (and maybe also) Labor 'remainers.'?

This really pisses me off.

As a small-l liberal Labour Remainer (in terms of my votes in the last two General Elections -- I'm not a member of any party) who has voted Lib Dem in the past I am not exactly impressed with Labour's stance on Brexit but am in no doubt about who the party which is really to blame for the mess is.  So I want the Tories out of power, and until I trust the Lib Dems to get over their "equidistance" and prefer to work with Labour in a hung parliament scenario, I'm going to be reluctant to vote Lib Dem.  The fact that a lot of Lib Dems seemed to like shallow panderer-to-nutters David Cameron is particularly off-putting.

I would, though, vote Lib Dem in places like Bath and OxWAb where they are the main opposition to the Tories, and probably in places like Vauxhall, Birkenhead and Blackley & Broughton with particularly awful Labour MPs.

(As for Conservative Remainers, I think it's actually quite similar but the other way round:  they may not like Brexit but prefer it to Corbyn and stick with the devil they know.)

[Blair]

Why are the Lib-Dems still stuck at 7-10% in the polls? Why are they not picking up the support of Conservative (and maybe also) Labor 'remainers.'?

This really pisses me off.

First past the post.

There are encouraging signs. They just had their best local election results for a decade, highest membership ever, and actually made money last year after spending the coalition years leaking money.  They normally poll 15-20% (before 2010). They've pissed off their base with the coalition, and Jeremy Corbyn has a Trump like effect on the British left/youth. He can do no wrong in their eyes. Half a million turned out last week to protest Brexit, most of them were Labour voters. Jeremy Corbyn supports a hard Tory brexit... but they refuse to believe anything negative about him.

But anyway, the good news for the Lib Dems, is that they are losing the toxicity of the coalition years, There is plenty of evidence to suggest that under the right circumstances we can get people to vote for us.

Disagree about the cult of Corbyn; lots of young people I knew where lukewarm on Corbyn but made the logical choice to support Labour once you factor in A.) The Manifesto B.) The awfulness of Theresa May.

A good piece of trivia is that the only age group that Owen Smith won in his 2016 race was the 18-24 group.

Besides the Lib Dem’s were fine with a youth quake happening in 2010

[Blair]

Why are the Lib-Dems still stuck at 7-10% in the polls? Why are they not picking up the support of Conservative (and maybe also) Labor 'remainers.'?

This really pisses me off.

First past the post.

There are encouraging signs. They just had their best local election results for a decade, highest membership ever, and actually made money last year after spending the coalition years leaking money.  They normally poll 15-20% (before 2010). They've pissed off their base with the coalition, and Jeremy Corbyn has a Trump like effect on the British left/youth. He can do no wrong in their eyes. Half a million turned out last week to protest Brexit, most of them were Labour voters. Jeremy Corbyn supports a hard Tory brexit... but they refuse to believe anything negative about him.

But anyway, the good news for the Lib Dems, is that they are losing the toxicity of the coalition years, There is plenty of evidence to suggest that under the right circumstances we can get people to vote for us.

Disagree about the cult of Corbyn; lots of young people I knew where lukewarm on Corbyn but made the logical choice to support Labour once you factor in A.) The Manifesto B.) The awfulness of Theresa May.

A good piece of trivia is that the only age group that Owen Smith won in his 2016 race was the 18-24 group.

Besides the Lib Dem’s were fine with a youth quake happening in 2010

[Antonio the Sixth]

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

[EPG]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

[YL]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

[Blair]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

If O'Mara resigns, is Clegg likely to be the LibDem candidate?

[MaxQue]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

If O'Mara resigns, is Clegg likely to be the LibDem candidate?

No, Liberal Democrats selected their candidate for that months ago (it's one of the local councillors).

[YL]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

If O'Mara resigns, is Clegg likely to be the LibDem candidate?

No, Liberal Democrats selected their candidate for that months ago (it's one of the local councillors).

She isn't a councillor, actually.  I think that if there's a by-election (which there may well not be; O'Mara says he's staying on as an independent) Lib Dems select again, but I imagine in this case they'd choose the same candidate.

Clegg said he didn't want to stand again.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

If O'Mara resigns, is Clegg likely to be the LibDem candidate?

No, Liberal Democrats selected their candidate for that months ago (it's one of the local councillors).

She isn't a councillor, actually.  I think that if there's a by-election (which there may well not be; O'Mara says he's staying on as an independent) Lib Dems select again, but I imagine in this case they'd choose the same candidate.

Clegg said he didn't want to stand again.

Thanks for your answers!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

[Hnv1]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

Even Labour edges it they won’t have a majority. Corbyn could only be a PM with a hung parliament

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most British people don't care that much about Brexit, especially remainers, and there is no market for any kind of remain-focused party. If there were, er, Vauxhall wouldn't have re-elected Kate Hoey?

LibDems need to die. Britain deserves a real choice between left and right, not a bunch of Nice Woke Moderates who happily help the Tories gut the welfare state.

That's fine, and like I keep saying to people for what four years now, if left-meme kiddies are happy with being a 250-seat opposition, this kind of arrogance is exactly what they should be espousing. Normal people who live in Nuneaton and drive cars will keep voting Tory. But one kind of lefty will get to beat another kind of lefty in the political equivalent of England v Belgium.

lol, I thought last year's election had dispelled the "muh Corbyn is unelectable" nonsense once and for all, but I guess some people are too Reasonable and Pragmatic to let the facts get in the way of their narratives.

Even Labour edges it they won’t have a majority. Corbyn could only be a PM with a hung parliament

Right, and May was going to win 400+ seats last year.

[Silent Hunter]

Had she not mucked up the campaign, she would have done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Had she not mucked up the campaign, she would have done.

Maybe, maybe not. My point stands.