Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

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Is there ANYONE in Brazil for whom the position candidates take on the war between Russia and Ukraine is a vote determining issue?

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That 45% bad/very bad figure is quite, um, bad, for Bolsonaro.

Unfortunately, this figure is not so bad for Bolsonaro. Usually, almost all voters who consider an incumbent good/very good vote for him/her in the 1st round and many voters who consider an incumbent regular vote for him/her in the runoff.
The possibility of reelection was introduced by the Constitution Amendment 16 from 1997. Since this date, all the incumbent presidents who ran for reelection were reelected (Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva, Dilma Rousseff). Most of the incumbent governors and mayors who ran for reelection were reelected. The rule of a 4 year term and possibility of 1 reelection is like a 8 year term with a recall in the middle.
Probably, Bolsonaro will loose. But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for Lula.

Yes but the percentage who say Bolsanaro is "good/very good" is just 28% - there is another big 26% chunk who say he is "regular" and I'm sure something is lost in translation but I suspect "regular" means mediocre or passable...not exactly a ringing endorsement

[DL]

PT still won DF in 2006 + 2010 though.

My personal stereotype of the Federal District is a place where a bunch of well-paid public sector/government employees live and generally indicate how the public employees relate with the government. But it probably is due to the factors burito mentions.

Low-key dream is to pass in one of those public exams and go live in Brasilia with a life-stable and well paid job. Even though it looks like a boring place to live, I would still be able to travel around on vacations with the salary tbh.

In most countries in the world, rabidly rightwing government tend to declare war on the public sector and are extremely unpopular among people who work for the government. Look at how solidly Democratic and anti-GOP the DC suburbs in Maryland and Virginia are...

[DL]

Lula is the candidate of the low income people, Bolsonaro is the candidate of the high income people

What this chart tells me is that Lula is the overwhelming choice of low income Brazilians and that people with higher incomes are split between Lula and Bolsonaro

[DL]

In 2018, the most pro-Bolsonaro city was Nova Pádua, in Rio Grande do Sul. He had 93% in the runoff. This city was founded by Venetian immigrants in the late 19th century.

Today I saw that the right-wing alliance had more than 50% in Veneto in the Italian election.

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

Not to belabor the point but I believe that Venice itself is quite centre left - the region of Veneto votes more for the right because of rural areas and smaller towns and who knows where exactly the immigrants to Brazil came from...

It would also be interesting to look at voting patterns in Nova Padua throughout the 20th and early 21st century and see if this has always been the case or if it was unique to last election.

I wonder if there are also towns in southern Brazil settled by German immigrants from left-leaning areas of Germany (e.g. the Ruhr) who tend to support Lula this time?

[DL]

There seems to be quite a large Brazilian population in Toronto now and as far as I can tell the vast majority seem HATE Bolsonaro and think he is a total moron and an embarrassment. Many left Brazil to get away from him...

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I’ll bet Lula wins Canada. The Brazilians here have more in common with Brazilians in Australia and New Zealand than they do with those in the US

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https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1586863552140398595

Lmao, lula despises generic liberals, most likely he doesn't care what nonsense a NATO servant has to say.

Lula is basically a generic liberal lol. His running mate is even a centrist.

That may be true in terms of domestic policies, but internationally he is definitely not a "generic liberal." He has never aligned himself with U.S. liberal interests and has continually positioned with China and Russia.

Umm… isn’t Bolsonaro the one who is friends with Putin and is part of the pro-Russia block along with Orban and Trump etc

[DL]

My understanding from following this thread is it's Class + Race + Pentecostalism + Lula being from the Northeast + Bolsonaro being from Rio de Janeiro state

I thought Lula was from Sao Paulo, not from the Northeast?

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Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

Huge difference between Brazilians in continental countries in Eastern Asia, and ones in island nations nearby.
Why is that?

There is a large Brazilian population only in the US, Canada, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan. In the other countries, there are so few Brazilians that the result of the vote is very random. Depends on the political views of the members of the small group.

How did Brazilians in Canada vote?

[DL]

I'm very surprised Brazilians in singapore went for Lula, I would think it would attract finance workers and other sorts of professionals that would be inclined to support Bolsonaro

Its possible that many are also working as domestics etc...

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Why is Rio Grande do Sul (and, by the looks of it, also western Santa Carina and southwestern Paraná) so much better for the left than rest of the South?

Could also be because RGS includes a major city Porto Allegre which tends to vote for the left while the other southern states do not have any big cities in them. So its like comparing Illinois to Indiana?