2023 UK Local Elections

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing to note is that the Conservatives will be much more vulnerable to losses vs. Labour than anyone else as the main feature of the (very odd!) 2019 locals was that the two big parties performed terribly against smaller parties and independents while holding up reasonably well against each other, with a small number of exceptions here and there.

[Blair]

Forgot to add the key word that was metro mayors!

One thing to note is that the Conservatives will be much more vulnerable to losses vs. Labour than anyone else as the main feature of the (very odd!) 2019 locals was that the two big parties performed terribly against smaller parties and independents while holding up reasonably well against each other, with a small number of exceptions here and there.

My reading of last years locals and the one before was that the Liberals and greens were much more effective at picking up seats off the Conservatives but equally voters were becoming a lot more tactical- these two factors plus a stronger Labour lead could all prove difficult bordering on awful for the Conservatives.

[JimJamUK]

My reading of last years locals and the one before was that the Liberals and greens were much more effective at picking up seats off the Conservatives but equally voters were becoming a lot more tactical- these two factors plus a stronger Labour lead could all prove difficult bordering on awful for the Conservatives.

Although given the current Labour lead, there’s a risk that tactical voting could go wrong (both people voting Labour in places they won’t win, and people voting Lib Dem etc but Labour actually coming 2nd).

[YL]

Andrew Teale has a bumper preview: https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-english-local-elections-of-4th-may-2023-d90f5831f1e7

[TheTide]

BBC1 is covering the results (or purporting to do so) from 11:40PM. Doesn't seem to be much coverage scheduled for the day after, as there sometimes is.

[YL]

BBC1 is covering the results (or purporting to do so) from 11:40PM. Doesn't seem to be much coverage scheduled for the day after, as there sometimes is.

That's mildly annoying (not that I'll be in a position to watch TV much on Friday, and there are usually better ways of following the councils I'm most interested in) given how many councils aren't counting until Friday.

[Blair]

A sign of the times is that last year the Tories were briefing they would win Sunderland last year and now labour appear set to increase their majority.

[Logical]

BBC1 is covering the results (or purporting to do so) from 11:40PM. Doesn't seem to be much coverage scheduled for the day after, as there sometimes is.

Brian's getting a new hat you know.

[Blair]

I can’t find the quote but the Tories are having a very funny wobble at getting called out over their stupid expectations predictions.

[CumbrianLefty]

I said in another thread that the fact they are now starting to talk about *2000* losses suggests that around half that is now a genuine possibility - though I will still believe it when I see it.

[Oryxslayer]

I said in another thread that the fact they are now starting to talk about *2000* losses suggests that around half that is now a genuine possibility - though I will still believe it when I see it.

I mean I have thought 1K losses for a while is on the cards - certainly not all to Labour - mainly because the nuances of the data suggest it to be a possibility.

Like compared to 2021 and in some places 2022, the Labour result looks good, but matched with older elections, the 2019 result wasn't that good for Labour. Which makes sense given the behavior of voters in early 2019 - the last days of May's Brexit fumbles. A chunk of both big parties was still going for the Strong Remain aligned parties  - Greens, Lib-Dems, the parties formed by parliamentary defectors - and a Chunk was looking at the Strong Leave aligned Brexit Party. But the latter did not stand local candidates. So we had a result that was very good for the Lib-Dems, especially since they were rising from the absolute floor of 2015 in many places, in the areas we associate with Remain in the south. But in the Leave areas it was often the Tories who were the Leave option, with occasionally a large crop of independents benefiting instead. There's a reason why the Tories ended up in control of places like Darlington, NE Derbyshire, Stoke-on-Trent, and NE Lincolnshire after 2019.

Then we have council redistricting, or an equivalent change in processes like in Wirral. The boundary changes aren't that important in most areas, but rather the result is that all councilors must stand at once on the new lines. This is a big shakeup in places which usually stagger their councilors and elect in thirds. The Conservative wave class of 2021 and the suboptimal class of 2022  - at least in many of the areas which matter this year - now have to stand in a year opposite of what initially elected them. And a full one-thirdof councilors up for reelection this year standing in new wards. Obviously not all of such areas have relevant battles for control either locally or nationally, but a surprising number of them do. This includes places like Derby, Amber Valley, and Bolton.

All this is to say that we have not seen a political environment like this in a while, and Labour have a lot of targets in such an environment. And it won't just be the Tories who lose, the pro-Brexit indies across Leave-land also have outlived their usefulness. The Lib-Dems fantastic 2019 intake means overexposure. They probably will lose seats in Lib-Lab fights, and the Tories might pick up seats in places the Lib-Dems really shouldn't have won in 2019. But those losses should be canceled out by gains off the Tories in the Con-Lib southern councils dotted across Hertfordshire, Surry, Oxfordshire, Devon, and the rest.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

BBC1 is covering the results (or purporting to do so) from 11:40PM. Doesn't seem to be much coverage scheduled for the day after, as there sometimes is.

That's mildly annoying (not that I'll be in a position to watch TV much on Friday, and there are usually better ways of following the councils I'm most interested in) given how many councils aren't counting until Friday.

Looks like Auntie have organised a bumper edition of Politics Live for the afternoon, which would cover that.  The presenting team looks fairly second-string, which is probably to be expected given that Huw Edwards will be busy with Coronation prep.

[CumbrianLefty]

Briefing game about these elections from all sides reaching genuinely silly proportions now (this has been aided by an Electoral Calculus "prediction" that verges on actual ludicrousness)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Briefing game about these elections from all sides reaching genuinely silly proportions now (this has been aided by an Electoral Calculus "prediction" that verges on actual ludicrousness)

LD: we will lose 100 councilors
Labour: we will lose 1,000 councilors
Con: we will lose a hundred million councilors
Greens: we will lose every single councilor in the entire country

[JimJamUK]

Just a reminder that the Conservatives losing 1000 councillors would mean they were losing just under 1/3 of those up, overwhelmingly last elected in the disastrous 2019 elections. To lose 2000, as supposedly someone, somewhere predicted, would mean about they are losing 60% of their seats. I remain sceptical that even with a dire result in terms of vote share, the Conservatives will actually lose as many seats as people seem to be expecting from such a result.

[MABA 2020]

Surely no one actually expects them to lose a 1000+ though?

[Blair]

It's also weird how much we focus on the numbers when everyone always gets pulled in by the shiny lights e.g those councils who declare first.

It's a complete guess but they could do relatively ok on headline numbers and still lose a good chunk of councils including those mirroring key likely marginals but there's a very weird failure to even understand local government.

Even the obsession with 'well these are actually elections about bins' annoys me because your council will provide a lot more important services than bin collection e.g health & safety inspections, care for children with additional needs up to aged 25, local school oversight, support for refugees and a whole host of things you don't often realise until it goes wrong (see flood defence planning in London)

[TheTide]

It's also weird how much we focus on the numbers when everyone always gets pulled in by the shiny lights e.g those councils who declare first.

It's a complete guess but they could do relatively ok on headline numbers and still lose a good chunk of councils including those mirroring key likely marginals but there's a very weird failure to even understand local government.

Even the obsession with 'well these are actually elections about bins' annoys me because your council will provide a lot more important services than bin collection e.g health & safety inspections, care for children with additional needs up to aged 25, local school oversight, support for refugees and a whole host of things you don't often realise until it goes wrong (see flood defence planning in London)

They'll be some wild result with a wild swing in some ward in some obscure town that'll declare early and will set much of the tone on Twitter.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If they lose 2000 seats, the only conclusion we can draw is that the Tories are heading towards an extinction level event. (I.e. don't get your hopes up).

[Blair]

If they lose 2000 seats, the only conclusion we can draw is that the Tories are heading towards an extinction level event. (I.e. don't get your hopes up).

It is hilarious on reflection that there was a time when they expected to use said result to hope Prime Minister Truss resigned. A shame she didn’t say as they honestly could have lost that many under her.

[oldtimer]

I said in another thread that the fact they are now starting to talk about *2000* losses suggests that around half that is now a genuine possibility - though I will still believe it when I see it.

Though I pitty the councillors because they are in most cases innocent bystanders of their party leaderships, I hope they do.

[Blair]

Are there any councils declaring in the first 12 hours that will set the pigeons?

I’ve given up on planning how to follow the results- last years guide was completely wrong

[Cassius]

Are there any councils declaring in the first 12 hours that will set the pigeons?

I’ve given up on planning how to follow the results- last years guide was completely wrong

Seems like a bunch of north-eastern and Essex councils will be in the mix early on (Hartlepool, Sunderland, Halton, Basildon, Castle Point, Harlow etc).

[CumbrianLefty]

There will likely be a big rush of results around lunchtime/early afternoon on Friday.

But the early declarers could still be significant - their results last year allowed Tory spinners to claim "we have done BRILLIANTLY in the Red Wall and they all still LOVE BoJo!" which, of course, our media (including, needless to say, the BBC) faithfully relayed as undisputed fact.

This time round, they are unlikely to be as deceptively "good" for the blue team. If the overall results do prove as bad for them as some suspect, expect wall to wall coronation coverage by teatime

[EastAnglianLefty]

To be fair, the issue last time wasn't that the early results were deceptively good for the Tories - they were rubbish, and their actual good results mostly trickled in late on Friday. The issue was that the media fell for very obvious lies.