Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

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https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

Universal. Healthcare. And. Medicare. For. All. Are. Not. The. Same. Thing.

Completely Agree!!  

(Also- if you don't get a Dem Senate... neither has a chance of happening. Not even a public option (the passable middle step to universal healthcare).

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It's going to be funny when all of these attack ads and tweets backfire:

And there is a huge turnout among Black Voters & Bernie Supporters.  Over 1.6 Million Black voters in the General, and I imagine several hundred thousand Bernie Backers voted in the general.

Consider 2.4 Million was the winning number in the general. The 2018 runoff turnout was 38% of general election voters.  Let's say you double that to 76% for the 2020 runoff... the winning number would be: around 1.8 Million.

Also- with Jan 5th coming at such a busy time of the year... I would be surprised if turnout reaches 76% of general election voters (also- the mail-in voters in the general... are very likely to mail in another vote... in the runoff. So those voters are less likely to fall victim to being too busy to go vote on Jan 5th.  And Dems won mail-in vote by huge margins).

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In 2008 Georgia had a similar runoff election for Senate, which is instructive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia
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But what were the actual results? Chambliss won 57.4% - 42.6%. It wasn't even close, it was a blowout, by more than the polls said.
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And will Black and young Democratic base voters turn out in the runoff? Sure, some probably will, but an awful lot will not.
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A closer runoff (than 2008) is the 2018 Secr of State runoff. The Republican went into runoff with a small lead.  What was the runoff result:
Republican: 51.9
Democrat:  48.1

In that 2018 election, 38% of general election voters turned out for the runoff.

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And while it's true that Black turnout in prior runoff elections dropped off considerably- there is a big difference this year- There is a Black candidate on the ballot (with a chance to be the 1st Black Senator from Georgia)... and I think the first Black candidate to win a statewide election in Georgia.  Also, the possibility that the first Black VP would be the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

So I would argue the game-changer is that Black turnout will be sky high in the 2020 runoff.  There were around 1.6 Million Black voters in the Georgia general election.  Even if turnout is as high as 78% of total general election voters (double the % from the 2018 runoff)- The number of votes needed to win would be around 1.8 Million.  So super high Black turnout could put the election away for Dems. (Although black turnout has dropped off in past runoff years...I would not be at all surprised to see 90-95% turnout in the 2020 runoff among black voters who voted in the general election).

Also- Jon Ossoff being 33 years old... could help with youth vote turnout (at the very least, it won't hurt).

The other advantage for Dems is that they dominated the mail-in vote.  And mail-in voters are the most likely to be repeat voters in the runoff, due to the lack of (relative) time commitment required to vote by mail.  Additionally, Jan 5th is a very busy time of the year due to the holidays- which will likely impact same-day voter turnout (to some extent).

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(Arguably), I think Dems winning the State for Biden, will provide a small turnout advantage over Republicans (since Dems were rewarded for their effort... while some Republicans may think their vote didn't matter).

So while I am comfortable to let the debate be decided by the actual runoff results... I think Dems definitely have reason to be optimistic (of course, assuming they run a diligent and smart runoff campaign). But I am very confident that one party will win both Senate Seats, despite a marginal number of potential split voters.

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How did Warnock become the "winner" in the first place? Is he some kind of institution? I know he rose to national attention when he delivered the benediction at the public prayer service at the second inauguration of Barack Obama. But is that the only reason that made him the frontrunner? As far as I know he has never hold any political post. 🤷🏼

Warnock has been Senior Pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta (founded in 1886) for almost 20 years. According to wiki, he's only the 5th to serve that position. Who are 2 of the others... Martin Luther King Sr & Martin Luther King, Jr (who was Pastor at the time of his assassination).  

The funerals of both Martin Luther King, Jr & John Lewis were held at Ebenezer.

So being Paster of such an Iconic Chuch with an extremely rich Political History ... is both very influential & inherently Political (especially considering how central Black Churches are to African American politics in the South).  

....In 2014, Warnock was central to the political push to get Georgia to accept the expansion of Medicaid, under Obamacare.

....From 2017- Jan 2020, Warnock Chaired Stacey Abrams' voter registration organization- "New Georgia Project"... (experience that will come in handy in turning out voters for the runoff).

Also- Warnock has a compelling backstory... Growing up in Savannah in public housing. He was one of 11 kids, whose father was a mechanic & WWII veteran (both parents were also Pastors).  He went on to graduate from (HBCU) Morehouse College in Atlanta, and then got his Masters of Divinity at Columbia University in NYC (Union Theological)... so a good educational resume as well.

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Pulled our first survey of this race out of the field this morning, which of course means I'm working on the weekend. This poll was conducted half before the Warnock oppo dump and half after. Broad generalities, as usual:

-Toplines are close in both races, and fairly similar to the toplines from our first survey of the 2018 Secretary of State runoff.
-Self-ID Democrats are far more enthused to vote in the runoff than self-ID Republicans, which is a total flip from the numbers we saw in the general. However, Republicans still rate their likelihood to vote higher than Democrats, so the effect here seems to be a wash.
-Democrats are more likely to say that their party controlling the Senate in 2021 is very or somewhat important than Republicans.
-A plurality thinks that an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably be a good thing for the country, and modest majorities think an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably help unite the country and generate bipartisan cooperation.
-Warnock is in a far stronger position than Ossoff and leads Loeffler on all of the important candidate qualities (cares about people like me, is honest and trustworthy, shares my values, has the right qualifications and temperament). Ossoff is really struggling with qualifications and temperament and we are expecting "has a bright future, but just isn't ready yet"-style attacks.
-"Defund the police" is still a big problem for Democrats. Court packing, Green New Deal, and filibuster abolishment are not, and none fit into successful anti-Dem narratives the way that defunding the police does.
-QAnon and Marjorie Taylor Greene are massive problems for Loeffler (particularly among college educated and high income folks). Perdue doesn't have this problem (yet), another reason why he's much better positioned at this time. The issue for Dems will be working QAnon/MTG into a broader narrative against Loeffler effectively (something the party is famously bad at).
-Self-ID Republicans are split almost evenly on whether Trump should "remain in politics and run for President again" or "remain in politics but support a different candidate who shares his views." A good chunk say "retire from politics altogether," mostly Republican youth.

1) Do you have any way of gauging whether or not the poll indicates that Black turnout in the runoff will be proportionally higher than the general election % of voters (Due to the potential of Georgia's 1st black Senator?

2) Any indication regarding likely method of voting among various demographics?

3) Any idea or indication regarding what % of general election voters are expected to vote in the runoff?

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Today is the 1st day you can request a vote-by-mail ballot for the GA runoff.  It will be interesting to follow vote-by-mail numbers in the coming days.

I still think higher than normal participation by AA voters in the runoff (due to the chance of electing Georgia's 1st Black Senator) ... & ... Dems being better equipped to achieve high vote-by-mail participation (given the Jan 5th election day coming at a very busy time of year)... will result in Dems greatly outperforming past runoffs, giving them at least a 50/50 chance of winning.

I also still think that all of the unknown factors regarding turnout, will ultimately break towards 1 party- and that party will win both Senate seats.

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New polling numbers out from Fox 5/ Insider Advantage (Nov 17)...

Perdue 49 ... Ossoff 49   (tie)

Warnock 49 ... Loeffler 48   (Warnock +1)

**For what it's worth- Insider Advantage was one of the closer polls in the Georgia Presidential race (poll taken Nov 1st ... showed Trump +2).. so it overestimated Republican candidate by 2 pts.


Here is a quote from the pollster:

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said, “The challenge for the two Republicans will be how to hold on to the over ten percent level of support they have from African American voters, while at the same time trying to convert suburban Atlanta white voters who have drifted away from the GOP.”

Towery said the current ad campaign by Sen. Loeffler against Rev. Warnock may have opened a can of worms that could lead to an erosion of that fragile level of support.

“The two Republican campaigns have decided to run in tandem and as a result, any mistake by one campaign may impact both,” Towery said. “Warnock will be the centerpiece of attempting to drive African American vote higher than it was in the General Election, which is essential for a win for both Ossoff and him.”

“At this time I would say that the Republican candidates might both be slight underdogs as of now,” Towery said. “That will come as a shock to people who have not followed the shift in demographics and voting patterns in Georgia. Either race can be won by either party’s nominee.”

“Times have changed in Georgia where runoffs for Republicans were considered a lock for them. That is clearly no longer the case,” said former pollster for the Reagan White House Craig Keshishian, who has joined the InsiderAdvantage team.

The poll also took a look at Gov. Brian Kemp’s current approval rating which appears to have dropped significantly. It shows that only 37% of the likely voters surveyed approved of the job the governor was doing during his time in office with 44% disapproving and 19% saying they were not sure.

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I still think in the end- the election is going to come down to:

1) How high is AA turnout (potentially very high... given the chance of the 1st AA Senator from Georgia & given the Republican focus on race in ads against Warnock- which will no doubt hit a nerve with AA voters)

2) How well are Dems able to utilize their Vote-by-mail & early-in-person-vote advantage... to bank a solid lead, going into the Jan 5th election day (which may be a busy time of year for many typical election day voters... and to a lesser extent, may be affected by a likely increase in covid breakout).

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I still think in the end- the election is going to come down to:

1) How high is AA turnout (potentially very high... given the chance of the 1st AA Senator from Georgia & given the Republican focus on race in ads against Warnock- which will no doubt hit a nerve with AA voters)

2) How well are Dems able to utilize their Vote-by-mail & early-in-person-vote advantage... to bank a solid lead, going into the Jan 5th election day (which may be a busy time of year for many typical election day voters... and to a lesser extent, may be affected by a likely increase in covid breakout).

Item two is something I never even considered.  Yeah, we're pretty much doing another round of mail-in for Georgia, right?

Yes- there will be all 3 voting forms: mail-in, early-in-person, and obviously election-day.

I think today (Nov 18) is the 1st day that mail-in-ballots could be mailed out to voters.

The last day to register to vote is Dec 7 (for those turning 18... or anyone previously not registered).

And I think early-in-person voting starts in early December (cannot remember the exact dates).

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To anyone who is optimistic about Dem chances in these runoffs, particularly for Ossoff, can you explain why we should expect Ossoff in particular to win given that he lost the 2017 GA-06 special election/runoff? Why should we expect Dem turnout to be better now in a statewide runoff with a President Biden just having been elected than then in GA-06 with a President Trump (and a GOP trifecta at the time)?

One of the major things preventing me from being at all optimistic about these runoffs are the results in that special election at a time when the national environment should have been more favorable for Dems than now.

I think the election could certainly go either way (although I am convinced that both elections will fall to the same party).

But my theory of why this year will be different:

1) Dems dominated mail-in vote... and I think mail-in voters from the general, are most likely going to have the highest % of repeat voters in the runoff (due to mail-in voting being the lowest time commitment)

and more importantly...
2) Black runoff turnout is likely to be high this year... due to the chance of electing the 1st AA Senator from Georgia.  In past runoff elections, AA turnout has dropped a fair amount. (And I think AA voters will vote for both Warnock & Ossoff).

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Article:  A bipartisan group of Georgia teens is trying to flip the Senate by enlisting thousands of students to vote in the January runoffs

Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/bipartisan-group-georgia-teens-trying-153200649.html

In addition to registering young voters... hopefully, they are also juicing turnout among college students in GA- especially those who may not have voted in the general.

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I love seeing the various #boycotGArunoff rumblings among some Trump diehards. It would be great if 3-4% of Trump voters in GA stayed home for the runoff!

On a similar note- Republican turnout in GA was 90% & Dem turnout was 70% in the general... this would seem to leave no room for error in the runoff.  This could be an encouraging sign for Dems, given the current Republican in-fighting in GA-

(& given the fact that AA turnout- which usually drops off in runoffs- is likely to be high given that Warnock has the chance to become the first AA Senator from GA).

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"bipartisan"

Trying to flip the senate

Lmao media 10/10.

I can see a fair amount of Republican College Students- preferring 33-year-old Ossoff and  Warnock ... over Loeffler (especially given the sort of racial focus from Loeffler... a tactic esp not tolerated by most college-age voters, whether Dem or Repub).

I haven't read the article yet- but I imagine there is a mention of the subject of Loeffler & race.


Article: A bipartisan group of Georgia teens is trying to flip the Senate by enlisting thousands of students to vote in the January runoffs

Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/bipartisan-group-georgia-teens-trying-153200649.html

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Actually, there was no mention of Loeffler or race ... however, it seems one of the goals of the group (formed by 2 Biden supporters & 2 Trump supporters- to register young voters for the general election) was to elect more candidates under the age of 34 (which Ossoff fits, given that he is 33).

And they are targeting High School Seniors- not college students (which I mistakenly said above).

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The voter file has been updated with preliminary Georgia 2020 data (most of the third party services hustled to get Georgia done first in time for the runoffs).

It looks like Democratic turnout was 70% while Republican turnout was 90%. We had modeled for Democratic turnout to be 68% and Republican turnout to be 84%. If this same pattern happened nationwide, it seems to confirm the working theory that the polling misses where they occurred predominantly came from undershooting Republican turnout. The electorate was also far more partisan than we anticipated in even our highest partisanship models (i.e. independent/nonpartisan voters were a lower share of the electorate) which also probably helped Democrats in the polls.

Our final poll, which showed Biden winning the state by 3 points (everyone here knows that I always say margins are meaningless, but it's as specific as I'm allowed to get), would have shown a tie under the turnout model based on the actual figures.

What turnout model did yall use for your recent GA-senate-runoff poll? (and do you, personally, anticipate the runoff will likely have the same Dem/Repub turnout %'s)

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The voter file has been updated with preliminary Georgia 2020 data (most of the third party services hustled to get Georgia done first in time for the runoffs).

It looks like Democratic turnout was 70% while Republican turnout was 90%. We had modeled for Democratic turnout to be 68% and Republican turnout to be 84%. If this same pattern happened nationwide, it seems to confirm the working theory that the polling misses where they occurred predominantly came from undershooting Republican turnout. The electorate was also far more partisan than we anticipated in even our highest partisanship models (i.e. independent/nonpartisan voters were a lower share of the electorate) which also probably helped Democrats in the polls.

Our final poll, which showed Biden winning the state by 3 points (everyone here knows that I always say margins are meaningless, but it's as specific as I'm allowed to get), would have shown a tie under the turnout model based on the actual figures.

What turnout model did yall use for your recent GA-senate-runoff poll? (and do you, personally, anticipate the runoff will likely have the same Dem/Repub turnout %'s)

I'm not allowed to get that specific about our work, but I expect turnout percentages to drop precipitously in a non-regular general election, even if the overall Democrat to Republican ratio stays the same.

Do you personally expect the ratio of Dem to Repub (from the General)  to stay the same in the runoff... if not, which party do you think will gain in that ratio?

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Looking at the crosstabs for the latest GA Senate poll ...

https://insideradvantage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/INSIDERADVANTAGE_FOX5ATLANTA-Senate-Poll.pdf

... I find it pretty surprising that, according to the poll, 13% of AA's are going to vote for Loeffler & Perdue over Warnock & Ossoff?  (Warnock had a slightly better % than Ossoff- but both rounded to 13%)

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If D's assume the majority DURBIN will be Chairman of Judiciary and usher in DC Statehood, victory

DC is a bit more complicated for various reasons... But I think it's crazy that there is any debate regarding Puerto Rico's right to statehood.  For a long time now, Puerto Rico becoming the 51st state seemed to be almost a foregone conclusion (long before it became such a politicized issue).
 

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Has anyone been able to deduce anything from the early mail-in ballot request numbers?

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https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1331326729739243527

New Internet Ad Warnock tweeted out.

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https://twitter.com/KLoeffler/status/1331337613190582273

And a tweet from Leoffler.  Apparently, she is horrified that Warnock wants to end cash bail.  I guess she thinks the amount of money in your bank account should decide who waits for trial in jail and who does so in the comfort of their home...

I'm not sure this is the best issue for Loeffler (The wealthiest member of the Senate).  Of course, FoxNews will likely turn "Cash Bail" into a boogey man phrase- and less than 10% of their viewers will have a clue what cash bail is even referring to.

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Has anyone been able to deduce anything from the early mail-in ballot request numbers?

No, it’s far too early. Only thing I noticed was over 300K new registered voters since the general election.

Is there any way to tell the party affiliation or the new voters (or demographics)?

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Georgia to Block New Voters ahead of Runoff

"...block new registrations before the Senate runoff to people who don’t have a car registered in the state."

"..This knocks out students and lower income urban voters (i.e. Black Atlantans) without cars. Of course, you can’t force people to buy a car in order to vote. The voters will be allowed on the rolls after a hearing, which will of course be after the January 5 election."

"...the rule not only states “The registrar may also consider…whether the applicant has a motor vehicle registered in this state,” but also that the registrar can take into account “whether the applicant has paid the required title ad valorem tax on such vehicle”. What does this have to do with voting except to knock out students and low income people"

https://www.gregpalast.com/georgia-tries-to-block-new-voters-ahead-of-runoff/

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Generally in special elections when Trump got directly/indirectly involved campaigning with  the candidates, they lost. Just ask Sacconne, Moore and Bevin

Before I read this... I was thinking- Trump campaigning in Georgia sounds bad for Dems, BUT it may end up motivating Dems (more than motivating Trump fans to turn out for an election that doesn't include Trump on the ballot).

Which could explain why Trump getting involved in special elections, doesn't seem to always help the republican candidate.  (In general, Dems need to be motivated to GOTV.. more so than Republicans.  So in a Special Election, to the extent that Trump motivates both parties... Dems benefit more than Republicans).

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Dan Bishop disagrees.

Dan Bishop was always going to win... b/c he secured the Lumbee Indian vote in Robeson County, thanks to State Senator Britt (a republican from Robeson County... who is popular with Lumbee Indians).  Lumbee Indians are mostly Dems... but willing to vote Republican (If the candidate is more attuned to Lumbee's achieving Federal Tribe Recognition).  Lumbee Indians mostly live in Robeson County & make up a large % of the total population (Robeson County makes up around 1/4th of the District).  

Britt & Bishop are good friends and sit beside each other in the State Senate Chamber (have a connecting Desk/ Seating... I assume due to their "B" names).  So Bishop was on top of issues that affect Lumbee Indians (since the State senator that represents them is Britt).  Also- there were many Tv Ads with Bishop & Britt standing beside each other, with Britt saying to vote for Bishop, etc).

So, Trump had no effect on the Special Election (& FOX news had already motivated any potential Republican voters who were going to turn out due to Trump campaigning in the District (as these voters are heavy Foxnews viewers)... By vilifying the Special Election Dem candidate on a daily basis- which they will no doubt do in Ga also).  

This is another reason (Foxnews) that could explain why Trump Campaigning in District, may help Dems more in Special Elections... B/c Fox already villifies the Dem Special Election candidate enough to turnout hardcore Trump voters (whereas Dem voters never see Fox's Candidate Bashing... But Dems do see when Trump comes into the district & bashes the Dem candidate... b/c all networks cover it).