Germany megathread

[President Johnson]

I really wonder who's behind that. I first thought of Russia, though there is no indication so far. Possibly a domestic group.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1578704343716372483

What domestic group do you think it could be? Germany never struck me as a place with lots of domestic terrorism (even if there was some during the Cold War)

Federal law enforcement agencies consider a "political motive" very likely. While left-wing extremists have attacked the rail system before, authorities consider this one of the lesser likely scenarios here. Especially since no confession note surfaced so far. Some sources say an external actor could be responsible.

My theory - and it's just a theory - is that the Russians could be responsible. At least it wouldn't be a surprise. And if so, there's a high probability this was just the beginning.

A number of security experts have by now alluded to a possible Russian culpability. Which means Putin could have launched a new campaign of which the Nord Stream pipelines were merely the opening salvo, and the railroad sabotage is now the second strike.

I just hope our securtiy apparatus is just not too compromised. Better to step up counter-intelligence.

I kind of feel vindicated now that Russia was my very first thought when the sabotage issue was confirmed in the first place. It just fits into the pattern of a foreign sabotage operation. Islamists or Neo Nazis tend to have different targets.

[Omega21]

German decline and deindustrialization, proudly brought to you by the Green Deal⟨™⟩

https://twitter.com/ChristophCanne/status/1580031988425101312

[parochial boy]

Or could it be precisely the opposite in fact? Decades of Merkellian short-sightedness and complacency that led to an over-dependence on Russian gas and chronic underinvestment in it's own capacity?

[Omega21]

Or could it be precisely the opposite in fact? Decades of Merkellian short-sightedness and complacency that led to an over-dependence on Russian gas and chronic underinvestment in it's own capacity?

I do not see how wind and solar could have helped alone.

It needs other electricity sources in order to function, so that's either coal, gas, or nuclear.

The greens ruled out nuclear and coal. What does that leave?

I hope you can see the ridiculousness of the German Greens, when even Greta is saying that they should not close down any nuclear plants lol

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1579844923423326210

[parochial boy]

Or could it be precisely the opposite in fact? Decades of Merkellian short-sightedness and complacency that led to an over-dependence on Russian gas and chronic underinvestment in it's own capacity?

I do not see how wind and solar could have helped alone.

It needs other electricity sources in order to function, so that's either coal, gas, or nuclear.

The greens ruled out nuclear and coal. What does that leave?

I hope you can see the ridiculousness of the German Greens, when even Greta is saying that they should not close down any nuclear plants lol

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1579844923423326210

Which is great, but it remains the fact that the countries sliding into recession just happen to be ones with an unusually high level of gas dependence. Which in Germany's case are the result of long term bad policy making and underinvestment that you can't really blame on an environmental movement or political party that wasn't actually in power during this time. Or indeed, and energy transition that beyond the nuclear shut down, wasn't actually happening.

(and even here, an actually sufficient level solar and wind; plus nuclear, hydroelectric, gas imports from places that aren't Russia would all have contributed to reducing Germany's exposure. As would have all the other policies like sufficient investment its digital and physical infrastructure, in developing hydrogen power, in whatever. These are all the failings of decades of bad policy, of things that people have been calling bad policy for decades and that you can't just solve in 12 months like that)

It is not exactly a secret that Germany has spent the last two decades both kneecapping its own economy through deficit-aversion driven underinvestment and by putting all its eggs in the basket that was Russian Gas at a time where everyone knew that it had to both reduce carbon emissions and that its chief energy supplier was being led by an increasingly volatile dictator. So to merely turn around now and say "oh this is the fault of the energy transition" just isn't honest. It's an attempt to hide from what the real causes have been.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am no fan of the Greens and their anti-nuclear stance, but come on, they are not the ones who have been in power for most of the past 30 years.

It's also a huge stretch to say this is a result of the European Green Deal or whatever, which only became a thing over the past few years, when Germany still burns vast amounts of coal, gas, and oil. It was pure complacency and naïevity towards Russia, which infects all of the German political establishment.

I'm also not sure that the chemical, steel, automotive, and glass manufacturers can necessarily substitute electricity for gas. Electric arc furnace technology only became a thing just a few years ago (SSSB in Sweden produced its first "green steel" in 2019 IIRC); and even if Germany could quickly rebuild its entire steel industry on a dime (hint: you can't), it doesn't have the cheap hydroelectricity that Sweden does. Yes, Germany should have kept its nuke plants open, but it also should have diversified its sources of natural gas instead of going all-in on Russian gas.

Finally, it's also laughable to say that the current crisis will deindustrialize Germany. The recession will sharp and painful and lead to production shutdowns, yes, but after a while the situation will very likely stabilize as Europe finds new long-term gas contracts and the price shock receeds. If the 1992-1993 recession and resulting 12 year stagnation didn't deindustrialize Germany, then this won't either. Germany's economic policy has oriented itself around an industrial- and export-based economy and that isn't going to change, and Germany's apprenticeship system gives its population a strong base of hard-to-train skills that don't just show up overnight in other countries.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it's maybe worth pointing out that the SPD also opposes the extension of nuclear power, you know. For the purposes of the traffic light coalition it's Greens/SPD vs. FDP and not Greens vs. SPD/FDP.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This just goes to show how much Chernobyl set us back on nuclear power. It was a disaster that was extremely avoidable if the Soviets followed safety standards (see Three Mile Island).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And it's maybe worth pointing out that the SPD also opposes the extension of nuclear power, you know. For the purposes of the traffic light coalition it's Greens/SPD vs. FDP and the German people and not Greens vs. SPD/FDP.

FIFY

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Kubicki is currently on "Maischberger", pulling a Trump while talking about his "insults" towards PUTP's archfoe Lauterbach and towards Atlas' favorite dictator Erdogan, and about alleged sexism within the FDP.

Oh, btw, Sandra Maischberger is the same journalist that conducted the infamous above-mentioned interview with Gretel.

[Isaak]

And it's maybe worth pointing out that the SPD also opposes the extension of nuclear power, you know. For the purposes of the traffic light coalition it's Greens/SPD vs. FDP and not Greens vs. SPD/FDP.

Agree. But it's still interesting that from a broader strategic perspective, Scholz and Lindner have much more in common than Scholz and Habeck. Scholz has used Lindner more than once to fight battles he didn't want to fight himself; not even speaking of the fact that his chancellorship depends first and foremost on the FDP remaining part of the government. If Lindner pulls the plug on the coalition (definitely a gamble but perhaps not as stupid as people think), Scholz is the one who has the most to lose.

Habeck, on the other hand, always has Black-Green as a future alternative. This creates a strategic imbalance (and an SPD/FDP vs. Greens cleavage) that shouldn't be underestimated.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Looks like the states and federal government have a preliminary agreement to a nationwide 49 Euro ticket. The ticket is planned to be introduced on January 1st, 2023 and will run for two years before being reviewed.

The "preliminary" is the key word, because while the feds have agreed to put up 1.5 billion EUR per year for this, with a matching amount from the states, the states are now demanding more money for increased maintenance that is naturally expected given the increased usage, and expansion of transit options in rural areas.

[NewYorkExpress]

Angela Merkel has no regrets about buying gas from Russia.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday defended her government’s decisions to buy large quantities of natural gas from Russia, which was her country’s primary gas supplier when she left office.

Speaking in Lisbon, Merkel said that “you always act in the time you are in” and that she doesn’t regret her decisions. She said that it was clear that Germany needed to diversify its energy supplies as it moved away from nuclear and coal-fueled power generation and that gas would be needed during that transitional period.

Merkel said that “from the perspective of that time, it was very rational and understandable to get pipeline gas, including from Russia, that was cheaper than LNG from other parts of the world.”

She added that “even in the Cold War, Russia was a reliable energy supplier.”

Merkel led Germany from 2005 until last December. During her time in power, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline bringing gas directly from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea came on stream.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Germany's economic policy has oriented itself around an industrial- and export-based economy and that isn't going to change, and Germany's apprenticeship system gives its population a strong base of hard-to-train skills that don't just show up overnight in other countries.

You're talking about Germany's past. Germany's youth of today is workshy, spoiled rotten, having a entitlement mentality, effete and decadent, watching their WoRk-LiFe BaLaNcE. This is also evidetly reflected in the election results. Germany used to be the land of poets and thinkers, of highly-skilled industrial workers and hard-working craftsmen. Nowadays, it's simply doomed to extinction.
The most fatal measure with the direst consequences with regard to the popular education of the youth the Merkelment adopted last decade was the suspension of the compulsory military service back in 2011, which expedited the effeminacy of society; the government ought to have extended the draft service to the female moiety of our society instead.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yes, Germany should have kept its nuke plants open

I do not see how wind and solar could have helped alone.

It needs other electricity sources in order to function, so that's either coal, gas, or nuclear.

The greens ruled out nuclear and coal. What does that leave?

I hope you can see the ridiculousness of the German Greens, when even Greta is saying that they should not close down any nuclear plants lol

Good news for PJ, bad news for MAE: Chancellor Scholz just announced that he's going to extend the runtime of all three nuclear power plants until April 15, 2023, by virtue of his constitutionally established policy-making power. Yaaay! 🙌🏻 🙌🏻 🙌🏻

[Omega21]

Yes, Germany should have kept its nuke plants open

I do not see how wind and solar could have helped alone.

It needs other electricity sources in order to function, so that's either coal, gas, or nuclear.

The greens ruled out nuclear and coal. What does that leave?

I hope you can see the ridiculousness of the German Greens, when even Greta is saying that they should not close down any nuclear plants lol

Good news for PJ, bad news for MAE: Chancellor Scholz just announced that he's going to extend the runtime of all three nuclear power plants until April 15, 2023, by virtue of his constitutionally established policy-making power. Yaaay! 🙌🏻 🙌🏻 🙌🏻

Great news. Sane people rejoice!

Next, he should extend it to 2025, and preferably indefinitely. The energy crisis won't be over in 6 months.

[President Johnson]

Finally, Genosse Olaf made a decision that seems to be fine with Habeck and Lindner for the moment. I'd like to see more decisive action like this from him.

As for the issue itsself, I'm not that ideology-driven on either side. Obviously we need to expand renewables as fast as possible, and faster than we did so far, though extending nuclear for a limited period of time seems a good call. I'd honestly follow the general advice of most experts here. Germany did the two exists in the wrong order; should have shut down coal first and nuclear second.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kind of uncharacteristic for Olaf Scholz to make an executive decision of such nature.

Personally, I'm content with the decision because it finally seems to put a never-ending story to rest where I knew for some time now what the most likely outcome would be anyway.

Politically speaking it's (probably) better for the Greens that it happened this way, because now there's no compromise that they had to give their consent on, therefore "betraying their principles" in the process... which maybe is exactly what Scholz and the Greens have agreed upon in a backdoor deal now or something.  Coincidentally, Green environmental minister Steffi Lemke already kind of approved of the decision by tweeting hat Scholz' invocation of Chancellorial powers finally helped bring "clarity" to the issue. Green Bundestag caucus seems less happy, but alas..

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Kind of uncharacteristic for Olaf Scholz to make an executive decision of such nature.

Personally, I'm content with the decision because it finally seems to put a never-ending story to rest where I knew for some time now what the most likely outcome would be anyway.

Politically speaking it's (probably) better for the Greens that it happened this way, because now there's no compromise that they had to give their consent on, therefore "betraying their principles" in the process... which maybe is exactly what Scholz and the Greens have agreed upon in a backdoor deal now or something.

Moreover, I think Olaf also issued that edict to mollify the failure-stricken FDP in order to bolster the predetermined breaking point of the Ampel coalition.

[NewYorkExpress]

The head of the BSI, Arne Schonbaum has been fired for his links to Russia.

Germany's cybersecurity chief has been fired after allegations of being excessively close to Russia through an association he helped set up.

Arne Schönbohm had led the Federal Cyber Security Authority (BSI) - charged with protecting government communications - since 2016.

German media have accused him of having had links with people involved with Russian intelligence services.

The interior ministry is investigating allegations made against him.

But it confirmed he had been fired with immediate effect.

Mr Schönbohm had come under scrutiny after his potential links to a Russian company through a previous role were highlighted by Jan Böhmermann, the host of one of Germany's most popular late-night TV shows.


Before leading the BSI, Mr Schönbohm had helped set up and run the Cyber Security Council Germany, a private association which advises business and policymakers on cybersecurity issues.

He is said to have maintained close ties to the association and attended their 10th anniversary celebrations in September.

One of the association's members was a cybersecurity company called Protelion, which was a subsidiary of a Russian firm reportedly established by a former member of the KGB honoured by President Vladimir Putin.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A first draft for the legislation to legalize Cannabis has been released.


Posession or purchase would be legal for any adult for amounts up to 20 gram.

THC content is limited to 15% for anyone over 21, and to 10% for 18-to-21 year olds.

Cannabis would be sold through licensed shops or pharmacies.

Private possession of up two Cannabis plants would also be allowed.

[parochial boy]

China wants to buy a 35% stake in the Port of Hamburg. Scholz apparently having learnt nothing from recent experiences of handing your critical infrastructure over to authoritarian regimes is apparently happy to wave this through.

I mean, how stupid can you be?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

China wants to buy a 35% stake in the Port of Hamburg. Scholz apparently having learnt nothing from recent experiences of handing your critical infrastructure over to authoritarian regimes is apparently happy to wave this through.

I mean, how stupid can you be?

Well the Northern Territory sold the Port of Darwin to China, which literally fuels the US naval base. and they didn't give the Americans advanced notice. and scomo lied about not being able to veto the deal. and scomo actually secretly paid $20 million bucks as an incentive to the Chinese company to buy it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

China wants to buy a 35% stake in the Port of Hamburg. Scholz apparently having learnt nothing from recent experiences of handing your critical infrastructure over to authoritarian regimes is apparently happy to wave this through.

I mean, how stupid can you be?

There's a substantial difference between a gas pipeline that can be turned off easily by Russia compared to mere ownership off the port which can be easily seized with little illeffect in case of hostile moves.

[parochial boy]

China wants to buy a 35% stake in the Port of Hamburg. Scholz apparently having learnt nothing from recent experiences of handing your critical infrastructure over to authoritarian regimes is apparently happy to wave this through.

I mean, how stupid can you be?

There's a substantial difference between a gas pipeline that can be turned off easily by Russia compared to mere ownership off the port which can be easily seized with little illeffect in case of hostile moves.

For a start, here in Europe we have a little thing called the rule of law which makes just seizing things not actually that easy.

For a second, it's not even merely the case of an eventual Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Although even here... It's about having an authoritarian regime able to wield influence over your infrastructure - even at a time of no war - to its preferences. With consequential leverage over your own policy making and political or economic decisions you might make. For instance reluctance to use whatever methods to pressure China over its attitudes towards the Uighurs, or Taiwan; or to push you towards international trade routes that favour the Chinese; because they have a direct ability to both disrupt your own supply chains and are actively involved in the decision making processes.

All the more so in an already very trade dependent economy like Germany.