Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?

[Badger]

Yes, maybe, and probably not

[redjohn]

Arizona's obviously in play, Georgia's going to be close, and Texas is not in play this cycle.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Biden wins with <300 EVs, the only one of the three he can realistically win is AZ (and he probably will).

Georgia is only in play if Biden is winning by 6% or more, in which case it won't matter.

Texas is only in play if Biden is winning by 8% or more, in which case it will be 4 tons of icing on a cupcake.

[jake_arlington]

Arizona and Georgia are not in play. The msm hypes these up everytime. AZ will be close but Trump will win it. Georgia he wins by similar amount as last time.

"Everytime" what the heck are you talking about?  No one was talking about Arizona or Georgia being in play in 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000... So you literally mean "1 time"

You seem to forget : https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/arizona-is-probably-not-a-swing-state/.

And, actually, maybe just ... read. the. f**king article this time

[jake_arlington]

Yes. In recent cycle's there has also been a clear tendencies toward the race shifting Republican (that generally means going from a slight dem lead to narrower, tiger race instead) later on during the campaign once people actually start to begin paying attention and largely switch away from their default option, the Democratic Party, to a slightly spicier candidate.

[jake_arlington]

What Trump has in his favor is that these three states are historically "law and order" states.

Congratulations you just described every Republican state ever

[SingingAnalyst]

Arizona is definitely in play. GA and TX will probably go for Trump, but that doesn't mean Biden shouldn't go all out in GA and TX. Voters in these states deserve to be heard.

I can understand Biden not visiting Cheyenne, Wyoming (what's 3 EVs even if Biden could win them?), but even that might not be a bad idea. Biden needs to run a national campaign.

[Former President tack50]

Under equal circumstances (which the presidential election will be given it's the same candidate), I don't expect AZ and GA to be far apart. First, GA has a naturally higher Democratic floor (46-47%) than AZ (44-45%). Secondly, 2018's top tickets saw a perceived white moderate running in AZ versus a perceived black radical running in GA, with a difference in margin of 3.7 points (plus there's no GA runoff for President). I suspect that if Biden is winning AZ by 2 points or more, GA is guaranteed to flip.

TX will be 3-5 points behind GA.

Even with this why weren't Democrats able to win at least one of the statewide offices in GA? Or did they run perceived black radicals even for state dogcatcher and the tiniest offices?

[Burke Bro]

Arizona is. The jury is out on the other 3.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Arizona? Absolutely. Georgia? Probably. Texas? Maybe, but given the state's history I'd want to wait a bit closer to November to be definitive.

[wightblack]

AZ and GA are definitely in play this time around, with TX on the edge of the playing field. In fact, I think GA will be solidly D by 2024 or 2028 due to continued AA migration into metro Atlanta

[Horsemask]

Arizona is absolutely in play. GA less optimistic on. TX is a cycle or two away.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Arizona: Absolutely

Georgia: Yes

Texas: Probably not, but don't surrender either

[Calthrina950]

I would say that Arizona certainly is. Out of these three states, it was the only one where Democrats won a statewide race in 2018 (AZ Secretary of State and US Senator), and it is the only one where Democrats control a majority of the congressional delegation. Moreover, Trump did worse in Arizona than in Georgia and Texas in 2016, and it was the only one of the three states where he failed to obtain an absolute majority against Hillary Clinton. Biden will win Arizona before he wins Georgia and Texas.

I don't think Texas will flip this cycle-though Biden could come as close there as O'Rourke did against Cruz in 2018. Georgia probably leans Trump, but Biden can flip it if he has a really good night. As things stand now, I think it is more likely that he loses the state by a margin similar to Stacey Abrams' loss in the 2018 gubernatorial race.