Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?

[pppolitics]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-arizona-georgia-and-texas-really-in-play/

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is talking a big game about an expanded electoral map with Arizona, Georgia and Texas in play, even though those states haven’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in two decades.

So let’s talk about just how feasible this strategy is. How competitive are those three states at this point? And what’s more, how does this strategy complement — or counteract — Democratic efforts to pick up Midwestern battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, or perennial swing states like Florida?

[...]

[Lambsbread]

Sure, Arizona is. Georgia might be. Texas is absolutely not in play this cycle and the Biden team shouldn't waste a lot of money there. Maybe invest in some areas that are more favorable to swing towards him, but don't invest in a state that won't vote Dem for another cycle or two at best. Especially not at the expense of PA, WI, and MI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

AZ is definately in play, an GA shouldn't be ignored. TX could be in play udner the right circumstances

[S019]

All three are, and he has a realistic chance of winning all three, but right now, I'd say only AZ and GA are pure tossups, out of the three and he should invest much more there than in TX.

[Ferguson97]

AZ absolutely is, and I would argue is tilt Biden.

GA is less so, but if Trump continues to decline then Biden should definitely make an investment.

TX is not right now.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

AZ is in play but it is Tossup/Tilt R, not Tilt or Lean D as many on here seem to think. GA is at least Tilt R but Biden could squeak by on a great night. TX is Lean R.

[pppolitics]

AZ is in play but it is Tossup/Tilt R, not Tilt or Lean D as many on here seem to think. GA is at least Tilt R but Biden could squeak by on a great night. TX is Lean R.

Funny you said that because every poll has Biden ahead in AZ.

[TDAS04]

Georgia is close to tossup.

Arizona leans Democratic.

Texas is still difficult for Democrats this cycle, but not impossible.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia is close to tossup.

Arizona leans Democratic.

Texas is still difficult for Democrats this cycle, but not impossible.

This. AZ 100000%. Georgia is a tossup, and has 2 senate races, so absolutely.

TX isn't impossible, but it's not worth spending as much as AZ and GA.

[Podgy the Bear]

AZ>>GA>TX

There are 4 Republican Senate seats for the taking in this pile.  At least two of these are quite winnable.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Nope.

[KaiserDave]

Arizona 100% is and might vote to the left of Wisconsin.

Georgia is, but is a tossup.

Texas is not really in play.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

AZ is in play but it is Tossup/Tilt R, not Tilt or Lean D as many on here seem to think. GA is at least Tilt R but Biden could squeak by on a great night. TX is Lean R.

Funny you said that because every poll has Biden ahead in AZ.

I'm going to wait for PPP and FOX.

[Ferguson97]

AZ is in play but it is Tossup/Tilt R, not Tilt or Lean D as many on here seem to think. GA is at least Tilt R but Biden could squeak by on a great night. TX is Lean R.

Funny you said that because every poll has Biden ahead in AZ.

I'm going to wait for PPP and FOX.

Both show Biden ahead

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

AZ is in play but it is Tossup/Tilt R, not Tilt or Lean D as many on here seem to think. GA is at least Tilt R but Biden could squeak by on a great night. TX is Lean R.

Funny you said that because every poll has Biden ahead in AZ.

I'm going to wait for PPP and FOX.

Both show Biden ahead

FOX has not polled AZ and PPP hasn't polled it since early January when it was a 46-46 tie.

[Xing]

I don't see how anyone can argue that AZ isn't in play, unless they've been completely tuned out of politics since 2014. GA is a heavier lift for Biden, but is definitely at least in play. TX is probably not realistically in play unless it's a wave year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The way the polls are going status quo of 2016 isnt gonna go the same way as in 2020. Yes, TX is in play

[Coastal Elitist]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

I remember this being said about Virginia in 2008.

[GeneralMacArthur]

AZ is absolutely in play.

GA and TX are only in play for a wave election, but Georgia has two senate races and Texas has a lot of important house races, so Biden may as well invest in them if he has the resources.

[Suburbia]

Yes, but they should not obsess over it.

They should campaign in PA, WI, MI, OH, IA

[tagimaucia]

What is even the rational argument behind thinking that Arizona isn't in play?  If you're going to make a galaxy brain take like that I would like to actually hear your reasoning.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Yes, but they should not obsess over it.

They should campaign in PA, WI, MI, OH, IA

Biden should not waste a single second in IA. If OH is still polling close in September perhaps go for it, but if Trump has even a slight lead there it's not worth the money.

[QAnonKelly]

AZ definitely, GA getting closer to it, TX no but it just getting Rs to spend money to defend it might be worth it.

[tagimaucia]

Yes, but they should not obsess over it.

They should campaign in PA, WI, MI, OH, IA

Is there literally any good reason to think that Arizona won't vote significantly to the left of Ohio and Iowa?