Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?

[Nyvin]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

You mean Trump winning AZ by 3.5% and GA by 5.1%?

[Rookie Yinzer]

AZ and GA are, TX is a long shot but Biden should def be driving up turnout there for the House races.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

[LAKISYLVANIA]

They are in play, but Texas is still lean, on the border of likely, Republican, while Arizona is even arguably tilt / lean D. Georgia is toss-up/tilt R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

1. One of the most conservative Democratic senators, not a moderate

3. A pro natural gas Democrat

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

1. One of the most conservative Democratic senators, not a moderate

3. A pro natural gas Democrat

I didn’t know Beto supported farting in public

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Trump is getting upset with NC Gov, is that he needs NC and thats is the key to reelection and Senate control, just like it was in 2008 and 2014 and he is in big trouble. So he picks a fight with Cooper to blame the issue of social distancing on him

WC men are his base and from the polls he is losing MT, KS, NC Senate races due: bars, sports stadium, and to soccer moms their teaching jobs as Professors. Moving convention to TX would do no good, since TX tilting D as well

[Rookie Yinzer]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

1. One of the most conservative Democratic senators, not a moderate

3. A pro natural gas Democrat

I didn’t know Beto supported farting in public

Legit LMAO

[jake_arlington]

Absolutely!

[SN2903]

Arizona 100% is and might vote to the left of Wisconsin.

Georgia is, but is a tossup.

Texas is not really in play.

GA is tilt R min. Come on now..

[ON Progressive]

AZ/GA are obviously in play, and I have no idea why some people in this thread are being so skittish about the latter.

TX is a bit less clear, but I would consider that in play as well to some extent. It's certainly worth giving a shot.

[libertpaulian]

King Tier: Arizona
Prince Tier: Georgia
Pauper Tier: Texas

How I would rank these states if I were a Biden strategist.

[QAnonKelly]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

lol didn't Ds: pick up a house seat, a senate seat, and a couple of statewide offices in AZ , pick up a bunch of state house seats, a federal house seat, and come close in every statewide in GA, pick up a bunch of seats in the state leg, come close in the senate and a few statewide races, and pick up two fed house seats in TX just a year and half a go?

[The Mikado]

GA's Lean R, but no worse than that. It's 100% winnable in 2020.

TX is only "in play" in landslide conditions, which may manifest at some point but aren't here yet. I don't think it does any harm for Biden to say "I'm contesting Texas." It's a strong, ballsy statement which will drive Republicans crazy. Actually campaigning here would be kind of silly, but Biden's not campaigning anywhere so that evens the playing field a lot.

I both don't think TX is going Dem in 2020 and don't think it does any harm for Biden to say he's contesting it as long as he doesn't divert any serious resources there. After all, Biden says he's contesting Ohio, which IMO is way more absurd than Texas.

I do think Texas swings hard Dem. Trump probably wins it by 3-5, and even Trump winning it by 5 would leave a bunch of the swing house seats here underwater for the GOP.

Anyway, AZ is obviously a top tier swing state. GA definitely CAN go Dem and will be close no matter what. TX is a huge stretch but I don't think there's anything wrong with Biden SAYING he's targeting it to trigger the cons a bit the way the Trump campaign claims it's targeting Colorado but will never, ever spend a dime there.

[Real Texan Politics]

Arizona - yes
Georgia - yes but more likely to stick with Trump, definitely could see it flip in 2024 though
Texas - no but it definitely will be in play during the midterms and 2024

[Coastal Elitist]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

I remember this being said about Virginia in 2008.

I don't know much about 2008, but I'm comparing it to the last election. I believed the narrative that Trump was a bad candidate and that Clinton would do well and had a chance to win states like AZ, AK, GA and make Texas close. I think polls even showed Clinton ahead in AZ, AK and GA at some point.

You mean Trump winning AZ by 3.5% and GA by 5.1%?

The margins were closer but Clinton didn't get a higher percentage of the vote than Obama in Georgia and barely got a higher percentage of the vote in Arizona.

lol didn't Ds: pick up a house seat, a senate seat, and a couple of statewide offices in AZ , pick up a bunch of state house seats, a federal house seat, and come close in every statewide in GA, pick up a bunch of seats in the state leg, come close in the senate and a few statewide races, and pick up two fed house seats in TX just a year and half a go?

this isn't a midterm Democrats will have to focus their spending on the presidency.

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

Again this won't be a midterm election. Also
1. she's not a socialist
2. she lost and the election environment won't be as good to Democrats this time
3. Yes he outraised Cruz 70Mill to 40Mill and came up short but Dems put all their effort into winning this seat and still couldn't. This go around I doubt the dem candidate will raise that much

I'm just providing a cautionary warning because I believed in the narrative last time and we all saw what happened with that.

[pbrower2a]

Barring a complete Trump collapse , Texas is the sort of sate that will tantalize  Democrats for much of the summer, only to lose attention as Democrats marshal their resources for easier prizes. Georgia will seem in play until very late -- again, barring a collapse of Trump. Arizona could be the tipping-point state. 

[QAnonKelly]

In places like AZ, GA, and TX, minority turn out is down for midterms. These places are also pretty much diversifying by the day. Presidential demographics will actually help, not hurt. A rising tide lifts all boats, so to speak.

[MT Treasurer]

People who either feel the need to ask this question or insist that AZ/GA/TX are "fool's gold" after looking at all the available evidence are never going to be persuaded until those states are at least as Democratic as CA, so any debate is probably a waste of time.

[harpercanuck]

Arizona and Georgia are not in play. The msm hypes these up everytime. AZ will be close but Trump will win it. Georgia he wins by similar amount as last time.

[harpercanuck]

Arizona 100% is and might vote to the left of Wisconsin.

Georgia is, but is a tossup.

Texas is not really in play.

I don't see it. Az they always play up how the latino vote goes blue but trump did better than mitt with latinos. Its too hard to say tho.

[MARGINS6729]

Arizona DEFINITELY- people who think otherwise are not following the state's changing electorate as well as the Democratic victories in the state. Georgia could possibly flip but I'm thinking it's still lean GOP right now. But the primary should help clarify what the Democratic coalition may look like there. Texas is a no. It'll be closer than last time but it isn't worth investing in at the presidential level IMO.

[tagimaucia]

In places like AZ, GA, and TX, minority turn out is down for midterms. These places are also pretty much diversifying by the day. Presidential demographics will actually help, not hurt. A rising tide lifts all boats, so to speak.

it’s amazing that people don’t get this (or pretend not to?). the electorates this november in these states are almost certainly going to be marginally more dem-leaning than in 2018, not the other way around.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Arizona and Georgia are not in play. The msm hypes these up everytime. AZ will be close but Trump will win it. Georgia he wins by similar amount as last time.

Everytime what?

If anything, I feel they aren't hyped enough compared to states like Iowa & Ohio

[Del Tachi]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

2/3 of your examples are candidates that *lost in a what will most likely be a better national environment than 2020.