Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?

[Former President tack50]

AZ is tossup and 100% in play

GA and TX are only flipping is Biden is winning bigly, particularly the latter

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

2/3 of your examples are candidates that *lost in a what will most likely be a better national environment than 2020.

Are we looking at the same generic ballot polls?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

People who either feel the need to ask this question or insist that AZ/GA/TX are "fool's gold" after looking at all the available evidence are never going to be persuaded until those states are at least as Democratic as CA, so any debate is probably a waste of time.

Georgia votes 61% Democrat in 2040

Pundits: it still just isn’t there quite yet

[Brittain33]

Yes, but they should not obsess over it.

They should campaign in PA, WI, MI, OH, IA

Biden should not waste a single second in IA. If OH is still polling close in September perhaps go for it, but if Trump has even a slight lead there it's not worth the money.

Biden probably won’t win Iowa, but with 3-4 competitive House seats and an incumbent senator who risks suffering a penalty from Trump/Republican misogyny, the down-ballot races are too juicy to ignore. Plus, it’s cheap.

[OneJ]

Of course AZ and GA are in play. GA is arguably more in play than AZ at this point since Biden consistently most of the polls in the latter while polls show GA is more or less tied at this point.

TX doesn't seem to be in play in the same way the other two states are, but it's still an important state this election nonetheless. I suspect this state will get really interesting come 2024 though I'd like to see more polling anyway.

[Del Tachi]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

2/3 of your examples are candidates that *lost in a what will most likely be a better national environment than 2020.

Are we looking at the same generic ballot polls?

Polls are not a fundamental of the race. 

The polls only say what they do until they don’t.  It’s June. 

[tagimaucia]

Arizona and Georgia are not in play. The msm hypes these up everytime. AZ will be close but Trump will win it. Georgia he wins by similar amount as last time.

"Everytime" what the heck are you talking about?  No one was talking about Arizona or Georgia being in play in 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000... So you literally mean "1 time"

[tagimaucia]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

2/3 of your examples are candidates that *lost in a what will most likely be a better national environment than 2020.

Are we looking at the same generic ballot polls?

Polls are not a fundamental of the race. 

The polls only say what they do until they don’t.  It’s June. 

The non-public-opinion based "fundamentals," as of right now, portend much worse for Trump than the actual polls though.

[Holmes]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

2/3 of your examples are candidates that *lost in a what will most likely be a better national environment than 2020.

Are we looking at the same generic ballot polls?

Polls are not a fundamental of the race. 

The polls only say what they do until they don’t.  It’s June. 

There’s a bit of a disconnect between this post and your previous one where you say the environment will most likely not be as friendly to Dems this year as it was in 2020. I’d rather put my trust in polls today than your gut feeling if you don’t have anything to really back up your claim.

[Del Tachi]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

2/3 of your examples are candidates that *lost in a what will most likely be a better national environment than 2020.

Are we looking at the same generic ballot polls?

Polls are not a fundamental of the race. 

The polls only say what they do until they don’t.  It’s June. 

There’s a bit of a disconnect between this post and your previous one where you say the environment will most likely not be as friendly to Dems this year as it was in 2020. I’d rather put my trust in polls today than your gut feeling if you don’t have anything to really back up your claim.

I don't think it's non-empirical to ascertain that a midterm electorate is not going to be representative of a presidential-year race.  2018 was a D+9 year with >50% turnout.  Dems maxed out their organization and cashed-in two years early, what room do they have to grow in 2020?

In aggregate, the return of voters who sat out 2018 (but voted in 2016) will be a net benefit to Trump in 2020.

But let's go back to TAR's original point that Abrams and Beto losing in 2018 (the best midterm environments Democrats have had in 60 years) as "evidence" that GA and TX are poised to flip in 2020.  That's a pretty flimsy argument.

[tagimaucia]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

2/3 of your examples are candidates that *lost in a what will most likely be a better national environment than 2020.

Are we looking at the same generic ballot polls?

Polls are not a fundamental of the race.  

The polls only say what they do until they don’t.  It’s June.  

There’s a bit of a disconnect between this post and your previous one where you say the environment will most likely not be as friendly to Dems this year as it was in 2020. I’d rather put my trust in polls today than your gut feeling if you don’t have anything to really back up your claim.

I don't think it's non-empirical to ascertain that a midterm electorate is not going to be representative of a presidential-year race.  2018 was a D+9 year with >50% turnout.  Dems maxed out their organization and cashed-in two years early, what room do they have to grow in 2020?

In aggregate, the return of voters who sat out 2018 (but voted in 2016) will be a net benefit to Trump in 2020.

I think you are wrong on this.  Look at the differences between the 2018 and 2016 electorates below.  On the whole, they aren't that big and 2018 really was very close to a presidential year in demographic breakdown, but the most significant differences are that the 2018 electorate was generally older (4% more 65+ and 4% less 18-44 than 2016). It wasn't very different in terms of race, partisan id, education levels, urban/suburban/rural, etc.  Now if there's some new surge of pro-Trump low propensity voters that didn't vote in 2016 that could change things (ironically, I think this could happen to some degree if there is widespread mail-in voting in rust belt states like Wisconsin).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwC_GapbE3vF6-n1THVbwcXoU_zFvO8jJQL99ouX3Rw/edit?ts=5beae6d4

[funjack73]

Arizona is definitely in play. I would even call Biden is the favorite there.

Georgia is in play, but Trump is still the major favorite.

Texas has no chance of flipping.

[YE]

Arizona seems to be Biden’s to lose for now. If he loses the state outright, he’s lost the election by that point probably.

Georgia goes for Biden in a solid win for him at this point. It’s basically the fastest trending D state in the country.

Texas seems more of a long shot. It’s possible it flips if this is any larger of a landslide than 2008. In a situation where GA narrowly flips, TX is probably a close loss for Biden.

Also why is 2020 guaranteed to be the a worse Democratic year than 2018 given the economy? FWIW I’m not married to it being a landslide but given the circumstances, there’s a distinct possibility.

[MarkD]

All three are battleground states, but they are not equally likely to flip. Trump can't take any of them for granted, and Biden should definately contest all three.

[morgieb]

Anyone arguing that Arizona is not in play is frankly an idiot. At this point, Biden is probably favoured there.

Georgia is definitely in play. Trump is the favourite but it could easily flip on a good night.

Texas is admittedly a long shot, but I certainly wouldn't call it Safe R.

[here2view]

At this point for Arizona, I think Trump might be the one who should be asking if it's in play.

[DrScholl]

There is no question about Arizona and it will mostly like flip. Georgia is certainly in line and Texas will be closer than it's been in decades.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

AZ: Absolutely in play, lean blue if anything. Every poll on RCP since the start of 2020 shows both Biden and Kelly ahead. The majority of its CD's are now held by Dems, and Sinema beat McSally by 2.4%. Trump's in real danger here, I can see AZ being 2020's version if Virginia.

GA: Yeah, but lean Trump. Polling has Trump ahead, and rural southern whites are still very strong for him. Biden will need high AA turnout as well as continue the trend of suburban whites shifting left, and even that may not be enough.

TX: Only "in play" if it's a landslide--as it stands right now, at least 5% margin for Trump.

[Frodo]

AZ: Absolutely in play, lean blue if anything. Every poll on RCP since the start of 2020 shows both Biden and Kelly ahead. The majority of its CD's are now held by Dems, and Sinema beat McSally by 2.4%. Trump's in real danger here, I can see AZ being 2020's version if Virginia.

And worth mentioning that the state legislature is very closely divided.  It won't take much to flip either chamber to Democratic control.  

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

What Trump has in his favor is that these three states are historically "law and order" states.

[Roll Roons]

What Trump has in his favor is that these three states are historically "law and order" states.

It's not like the county that comprises 60% of the population one of these states threw out its longtime incumbent sheriff in a landslide for taking "law and order" to the extreme. And it's not like that sheriff's horrible personality was basically the same as Trump's in every way.

[South Dakota Democrat]

lol no we've played this game before and seen the result

We have seen this game before and it resulted in
1. A Prada socialist bisexual atheist being elected Senator in Arizona
2. An unmarried black woman coming a point away from bein Governor in Georgia
3. A hit-and-run DUIer who was a loud supporter of the NFL kneelers nearly winning a Senate seat in Texas

1. One of the most conservative Democratic senators, not a moderate

3. A pro natural gas Democrat

That's honestly the best you got?  A pro natural gas Democrat?  Really?

[JerryArkansas]

What Trump has in his favor is that these three states are historically "law and order" states.

It's not like the county that comprises 60% of the population one of these states threw out its longtime incumbent sheriff in a landslide for taking "law and order" to the extreme. And it's not like that sheriff's horrible personality was basically the same as Trump's in every way.

And it's not like that person is once again running, likely winning the primary due to his toxic nature and being a drag on Trump.

[Adam Griffin]

Under equal circumstances (which the presidential election will be given it's the same candidate), I don't expect AZ and GA to be far apart. First, GA has a naturally higher Democratic floor (46-47%) than AZ (44-45%). Secondly, 2018's top tickets saw a perceived white moderate running in AZ versus a perceived black radical running in GA, with a difference in margin of 3.7 points (plus there's no GA runoff for President). I suspect that if Biden is winning AZ by 2 points or more, GA is guaranteed to flip.

TX will be 3-5 points behind GA.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

What Trump has in his favor is that these three states are historically "law and order" states.

Yet so far, Trump's response has been god-awful. He's hiding in the bunker (understandably so to be fair) as the country burns. He poured fuel on the fire by jumping straight to aggression then doubling down. "Law and order" works wonders for the Republicans when they have a remotely competent president, which they currently do not.