2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

ATLAS 5 MINUTES AGO: Don't extrapolate from the initial exit polls!! They're extra crappy this year!

ATLAS NOW: Extrapolating from the early exit polls...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I would see that exit poll as a huge warning sign for Biden if I didn't know to take all exit polls this year with a truckload of salt.

Each year.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

LOL

Trump is probably going to lose, but no court packing, no left agenda, no nothing.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JJansaSDS/status/1323913419200864256
Slovenian Prime Minister (very much a trumpist Ideologically) first World Leader to congratulate Trump. Not sure this will age well. Could have a real bad impact on relations if Biden wins.

LOL, this is bold. Extremely stupid, but bold.

Though, I think nor Biden or Dems will care a bit about it. They've (likely) lost Senate for god's sake.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323938308183916545

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

I believe, that days before the election Nate Silver said that late mail ballots will be way more less D than early mail ballots. Though, I don't know if it is applicable to NV (or other states).


EDIT: ok. According to Nates it is likely a good news for Biden.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323940482767093760

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323942990331682816

How do they start to count them? By date, from early to late, or more randomly?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323944064190947330

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Thanks. Yeah, I know, Scandinavians in general should consider themselves lucky. But the USA is really freaking important, not just to Americans. :-)

But honestly, what you are saying is partly what got me through the 2016 election. I teach political science and psychology and honestly did not know if I could go on after that election. What got me through it was basically thinking that I am in an incredibly priviliged position, not just as a dane, but as an economically comfortable white male in a western country. I would not allow myself to sink into depression and decided that I could still accomplish some good through teaching.

Infact, just writing this nonsense is therapeutic, so bare with me. :-)

Political science and psychology, huh? You've got a difficult job for you.

Imagine how you're going to explain for your students, that after 4 years of Trump the minority swung heavily towards Trump, but Biden's ass was saved by old "economically comfortable white male in an incredibly privileged position"  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323953944016703498
So Biden will probably win by 4-6%.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

How certain are we Biden has a winning lead in WI?

It seems like absolute best case scenario for Trump is that he cuts the lead by 5000 in Kenosha. (Assuming absentee votes like in person, which it won't.)

What does that leave?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323961092842917889

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

>mfw Trump voters are sent to re-education camps in January

The Senate Majority Leader won't allow it. Because GOP will probably hold Senate, no?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323972022813286400
I still more bearish on Trump today then yesterday. Yesterday, I'd give him ~5% to win, right now, perhaps, 10-15%, unlikely, but possible. And yesterday I'd say, GOP should be happy if Dems get "only" 51 in Senate.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539

There error will persist, while shaming of voters of "wrong" candidates by Media does.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: McCain/AZ.


It's ironical that Trump would probably win AZ (and WH), if he was nice with McCain. Still, you should never be nice towards warmongers, even if it means you lose.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Why do you seem to be under the impression that the most powerful man in the world is merely “symbolic” and the Senate is the only thing that matters? Are you aware of what the president actually does and is responsible for? It’s pretty goddamned important. This COVID crisis alone is Exhibit A of how a president’s response to a crisis can make or break a nation, for example.

I swear, the way you talk it's like you think POTUS is just a “head of state” like the Queen of England or something instead of also head of government of the most powerful nation in the world, and Commander-in-Chief of its military and nuclear codes.

Because despite my short term attention span, I can remember four years ago and how a Republican Senate blocked everything Obama wanted to do for the majority of his tenure. McConnell is going to be very dangerous in terms of blocking legislation. Plus, with all of the anti-lockdown hysteria, the Republicans will be suing Biden over every pandemic control measure he tries to implement. With a Court that's majority hacks, they'll find a lot of success there.

Sorry, dude, I know you want to find a silver lining and rejoice that Ice Cream man melted Drumpf, but there really isn't one. There's no more punching bag for the national Democratic Party and so the Republican Party just became a lot more dangerous.

Yes. And I actually find it more easy for Mitch to block Biden's agenda than Obama's, because of court-packing, impeachment, AOC etc that is because Dems were too "nasty" thinking they will win anyway.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yup exactly. The Republicans lock in all the gains they made under Trump, while the opposition is lulled asleep. Republicans should be dancing in the streets.

https://twitter.com/___NoOne__/status/1323322620654297088

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

I don't think Biden running a "feminine" campaign has got anything much to do with it, but I totally agree with you about Trump's macho appeal. This factor should not be underestimated. There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters, I believe. Sure, they can provide rationalizations, but I don't think a single of those rationalizations are the true reason why they vote for him.

This is also why the educated elite have never been able to understand why people would vote for Trump since the educated elite typically finds ultra macho behaviour primitive and off-putting. Trumps behaviour is a feature, not a bug. This is also why it is far from certain that a DeSantis or Cotton or whoever would be able to carry the torch for Trumpism going forward.

Cut it out. Saying that Latinos/Black are stupid and vote because muh "primitive macho behaviour"... while "educated" whites voting rationally. WTF are saying, man? It is so f**king racist.


Biden wrote a god damn bill that started a mass incarceration brown folks, while Trump, while having deaf rethoric, has actually got First Step Act. Isn't enough? But no, it is should be Macho thing. God damn it. I guess, White Libs gonna be White Libs.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

I don't think Biden running a "feminine" campaign has got anything much to do with it, but I totally agree with you about Trump's macho appeal. This factor should not be underestimated. There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters, I believe. Sure, they can provide rationalizations, but I don't think a single of those rationalizations are the true reason why they vote for him.

This is also why the educated elite have never been able to understand why people would vote for Trump since the educated elite typically finds ultra macho behaviour primitive and off-putting. Trumps behaviour is a feature, not a bug. This is also why it is far from certain that a DeSantis or Cotton or whoever would be able to carry the torch for Trumpism going forward.

Cut it out. Saying that Latinos/Black are stupid and vote because muh "primitive macho behaviour"... while "educated" whites voting rationally. WTF are saying, man? It is so f**king racist.

Except that is not what I am saying at all. Infact I don't even mention race in that post. Trumps macho behaviour first and foremost appeals to less educated men, this is known fact. Also, this is first and foremost WHITE men, but obviously not exclusively white men.

Known fact? Oook.

Not about race? Ok. So it isn't Black/Latinos don't know better than macho thing. Instead it's low-educated men don't know better than macho thing. Very progressive.

Anyway: "There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters" is a truly elitist attitude. Even worse Romneys 47%. Perhaps, literally, why Black/Latino/Low-Educated swung Trumpy.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324007806694023169?s=19

"so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction"

It sounds weirdly poetic to me.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I really hope Gary Peters pulls through also.

It's astonishing that Democrats must now be concerned about Peters. I'm also still shocked by how every competitive Senate race-aside from Arizona and Colorado, where Republicans were DOA-broke in favor of the Republicans. This very much resembles what happened in 2018, when Arizona and Nevada broke for the Democrats but they lost Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.

Ticket splitters as effect of "we are gonna pack the court etc", perhaps?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Susan survives !

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1324051536620720132?s=19

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1324041497143058432



Though, who are these Data Orbital exactly? FWIW, they a A/B with D+0.3 bias according to 538. No GOP affiliation at the first glance.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1324041497143058432
Though, who are these Data Orbital exactly? FWIW, they a A/B with D+0.3 bias according to 538. No GOP affiliation at the first glance.

Arizona pollster.. based in Phoenix.

Are they independent? And why did they step up and talk about the remaining votes in AZ? It is not that pollsters usually do? I'm not saying they are wrong, though. AZ reporting has been a bit weird last 24 hours.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324072330444836864


When will we get "first" batch? Today?