Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[THG]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

With all due respect, polls have a significant tendency to underestimate and under-sample Republicans. I certainly find 50-50 or 45-52% approvals for Biden far more realistic than 60% approvals.

[THG]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

With all due respect, polls have a significant tendency to underestimate and under-sample Republicans. I certainly find 50-50 or 45-52% approvals for Biden far more realistic than 60% approvals.

If going by the 2020 poll bias, Biden’s approval number is probably correct, but his disapproval is likely higher than polls are showing.  He’s probably around 51%-47% (where the popular vote was in 2020).

This is fairly reasonable. A 51-43 approval/disapproval doesn’t add up, it is probably closer to 51-47 or 48-45 in reality.

[THG]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 24-27, 1500 adults including 1280 RV


Adults:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 44 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 45 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)

From what I saw on twitter, that’s a D+14 sample.
https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1420454694778855425?s=21

Yeah, Biden only being +4 in a D+14 sample is pretty abysmal.

I wonder what his approval rating adjusted to a D+4 environment (the national environment of the 2020 election) would be.

40-46%-ish? Sounds about correct.

[THG]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1420476812593876993

For a D+14 sample, those numbers ain't beautiful.

[THG]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1420476812593876993
For a D+14 sample, those numbers ain't beautiful.

Why do white women with college degrees live him so much?

From my conservative POV:

College educated white women, particularly millennials and Gen Z ones, assimilate into more liberal cultures and are more susceptible to emotionally based propaganda (which helps liberals) such as BLM and socially liberal ideologies like the LGBT agenda.

[THG]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1420476812593876993
For a D+14 sample, those numbers ain't beautiful.

Why do white women with college degrees live him so much?

From my conservative POV:

College educated white women, particularly millennials and Gen Z ones, assimilate into more liberal cultures and are more susceptible to emotionally based propaganda (which helps liberals) such as BLM and socially liberal ideologies like the LGBT agenda.

In your POV what is the most effective way to counter this?

Use emotional propaganda from a conservative POV on issues like abortion- this obviously will not work on liberal suburban women, but it may work to motivate swing/conservative leaning suburbanites (who are probably older, and not millennials).

I don’t know if this is a brilliant answer.

[THG]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1427790844484931587?s=19
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1427792672660463618?s=19
Jesus..

My, my, is that really a D+20 poll?

[THG]

My, my, is that really a D+20 poll?

Yes but the -1 was calculated after adjusting for the D overrepresentation.

Makes more sense. But that still isn’t good at all for Biden, as the sample is still indeed D+20.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1427792672660463618

I genuinely wonder what Biden’s approval would look like if the sample was D+4 or so- exactly the same as the 2020 electorate.

My guess would be 42-48% approval and a 48-56% disapproval currently. The Afghanistan situation definitely didn’t do him any favors.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1427792672660463618
I genuinely wonder what Biden’s approval would look like if the sample was D+4 or so- exactly the same as the 2020 electorate.

My guess would be 42-48% approval and a 48-56% disapproval currently. The Afghanistan situation definitely didn’t do him any favors.

You believe Biden's approvals are underwater now?

ABSOLUTELY.

I frankly think his approvals have been between underwater to even for most of his tenure, but they’re almost certainly underwater now after this Afghan debacle. There’s no situation where he’s overwater at this present moment.

I would be shocked if his actual approval was above 46% or so.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/OneNationCon/status/1428421471211335683
Civitas overestimated Roy Cooper by 5 points in 2020, and also had Biden and Cheatin’ Cal narrowly winning my state.

Either way, if this poll is even remotely accurate this time, this isn’t golly news for Biden whatsoever.

[THG]

INSHALLAH!


https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1428857489768943616

[THG]

He’s underwater in rcp now

Obama, I believe, went underwater a little bit after aug 2009 so this is in line with that

Trump remains the outlier

Obama was not in the negatives 'till March 18th, 2010- and his net approval wasn't this low until April 11th, 2010. In fact, Biden's collapse in approvals reminds me of Obama's declining approval rating during his second term, which is when he truly started to get unpopular (which is part of what led to the 2016 election being as it was).

Also keep in mind that approval polls oversample Democrats by around 5-20 points, so it's reasonable to assume that his net approval is minus 5 to 10.

[THG]

yeah sorry I don't believe this lol

I do believe the fact that Biden is underwater in most states.

What I do not believe is some of those margins, however (especially Delaware).

Also, Civiqs ridiculously underestimated Trump in the Midwest for whatever odd reason, so this isn't anything new or partisan.

[THG]

He’s underwater in rcp now

Obama, I believe, went underwater a little bit after aug 2009 so this is in line with that

Trump remains the outlier

Obama was not in the negatives 'till March 18th, 2010- and his net approval wasn't this low until April 11th, 2010. In fact, Biden's collapse in approvals reminds me of Obama's declining approval rating during his second term, which is when he truly started to get unpopular (which led to the 2016 election being as it was).

Also keep in mind that approval polls oversample Democrats by around 5-20 points, so it's reasonable to assume that his net approval is minus 5 to 10.

I hate to break it to you (actually I don't), but there are significantly more Democrats than Republicans in the U.S., so a representative sample will have more D's than R's.  But as long as the poll is properly weighted to reflect the electorate, the party composition isn't hugely significant as long as the subsamples of each party are large enough.  "Unskewing" the polls doesn't have a great track record.

The 2020 national environment was a D+4 one. Most of these polls have a D+10 or sometimes even a D+20 sample, thus overestimating Democrats.

Also, there are way more independents than either Democrats or Republicans in the US, and polling generally has Biden underwater with indies too. This indicates to me that his approval rating is probably underwater by around 5-10.

[THG]

I have to say, people here pretending that Biden somehow isn't unpopular or even worse, is somehow more popular than Obama is hysterical.

I did not like Barack H. Obama whatsoever and I believe that he was an atrocious president, but there were millions of African Americans (and a lot of Americans in general) celebrating and literally crying in joy over his 2008 victory in a way that Mr. Robinette, or frankly literally any other politician could only dream of. 44 had genuine popularity and an impact on pop culture and a strong base of support (as did 45) which 46 lacks. This only began to slip away in his second term, which is partially what led to Trump's 2016 victory (in fact, the parallels between Obama's second term and Biden's first term are undeniable). 

The memory holing and re-writing of history done on here is sometimes hysterical.

[THG]

Biden isn’t faced with as much outright venom as Obama or Trump were per se, but his base of actual supporters is far lower than either of his two predecessors. Hell, he doesn’t even have W’s base of actual support- and it isn’t like he is a popular president either, with his approvals being in the low to mid forties or so IMO.

[THG]

You know whenever the Predictive maps come out, Rs do poorly on them, Rubio and DeSantis are only up 3 they can lose because they were only up 60/40 due to Surfside

Rubio can't lose. DeSantis might since he is a neocon and that wing is unpopular now.

DeSantis is apparently a neoconservative but Rubio isn’t?

You must not recall pre-2016 Rubio.

[THG]

You know whenever the Predictive maps come out, Rs do poorly on them, Rubio and DeSantis are only up 3 they can lose because they were only up 60/40 due to Surfside

Rubio can't lose. DeSantis might since he is a neocon and that wing is unpopular now.

DeSantis is apparently a neoconservative but Rubio isn’t?

You must not recall pre-2016 Rubio.

Rubio is a hawk in the Western Hemisphere but not a neocon. I have no doubts the neocons would support him, though.

Rubio isn’t a “neocon” anymore but more of a standard conservative with some populist sympathies. He was a neocon earlier in his career, however (even though he ran on the coattails of the Tea Party).

[THG]

Joe Biden's approval is now worse than Obama's was at the time of the 2010 elections:





To put things in perspective: Trump's approval at the time of the 2018 elections was roughly -9. He polled 6 points below his national polling numbers in 2016, and Republicans did about 6 points worse in the national congressional vote than Trump did for President. Biden is now polling about 12(!) points worse in approval vs his national polling numbers in 2020. That would suggest an upper single-digit Republican romp nationally in 2022 if it stays.

It's worth pointing out that it's possible that this is Biden's low point. Trump had an awful first year of approval and, against historical precedent, trended upwards in approval as time went on. But that's not typical, and so far Biden's presidency is following a more traditional approval trend (downward as time goes on). Democrats' hope to hang on to power relies on him bouncing back significantly and this being a unique blip.

I think Biden’s floor is high 30’s/low 40’s. He reminds me of an even less popular and less charismatic second term Obama.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1445843435139657736

Did Quinnipiac change their methodology? I still don’t trust them but those numbers are shockingly bad.

[THG]

I 100% wouldn’t be shocked that Biden has a 38% approval rating. However, Quinnipiac was so D friendly last year that to see their recent evaluation either means that 1) They corrected their methodology or 2) Biden is in the pits in terms of popularity.

I wouldn’t be shocked if both were possible, however.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1445843435139657736
Did Quinnipiac change their methodology? I still don’t trust them but those numbers are shockingly bad.

It's possible that Qpac has overcorrected their methodology after some of their misses.  TBF, they also had some pretty good polls in 2020; they had Biden up by 5 just before the election, IIRC.  But they do seem to be among the most R-friendly pollsters this year, while they were closer to the other extreme before.

I believe that Biden is in the 37-43% range in terms of approval, so that isn’t a surprise to me. However, Quinnipiac going from being the trope of a D favorable pollster to being far less bullish on them is what I find surprising.

[THG]

Biden’s approval ratings are essentially identical to Trump’s 9 months into his presidency, and they seem unlikely to rebound.

[THG]

Biden’s approval ratings are essentially identical to Trump’s 9 months into his presidency, and they seem unlikely to rebound.

Trump's average was -18 at this time in 2017. Bidens is -5. No.

Biden is currently -10 on RCP.

Trump was similar throughout his presidency, give or take, and polls usually overestimate Democrats, so his *real* approval may actually be lower!