Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

Honestly the only thing we can do is look at the 538 average, because I do not think Bidens approval is as high as AP (+19) or as low as Civiqs (-6). Even Gallup seems a bit low - though the cross tabs are a bit messy so that's not surprising.

538 currently has +10, which sounds about right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Honestly the only thing we can do is look at the 538 average, because I do not think Bidens approval is as high as AP (+19) or as low as Civiqs (-6). Even Gallup seems a bit low - though the cross tabs are a bit messy so that's not surprising.

538 currently has +10, which sounds about right.

50/45 is exactly BIDEN approval on Election night where it was 51/46 its not low, when we are a polarizing Environment and the HONEYMOON IS OVER
Look at the Election results 51/46 which is a 304 map oh and Demings is supposed to win and she is BEHIND 60/40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a 50/45 Election the Exact same 304 map we got in 2020, 51/46% it's Safe R H Leader McCarthy wins 5(15 seats and Safe D S 51/49 D's win WI and PA but loose GA in a Runoff without VR passing, and I always overpredict, but not this time

It's not gonna be a 55 Senate Rubio and DeSantis are winning 60(40% way outside margin of error due to Cuban crisis and Surfside bump

[It’s so Joever]

Rassy Tracking has been consistent 50/48% for Joe Biden

Rasmussen is a fake poll. The crosstabs don't make sense. It's the equivalent of CNN/Quinnipiac in quality.

If I no like the results it’s trash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not trash Biden has been tracking 51)46 and now 49)49 and 5o/48 unlike these other Approvals show him at at 59% among RV not LV

Gallup has Biden exactly at the same Approvals as he won the Election bye 50/45 and it was 51/46 and Rassy had it 51/46% before it's not 59%

Biden only lost FL by 3 Demings and Crist and Fried won't be down 20 if he was at 59% and there hasn't been any poll contradictory to that 60/40 number in FL post Surfside bump

[pbrower2a]

If I no like the results it’s trash.

CNN and Quinnipiac were off on generic ballot polling during midterms nearly as much as Ras, but in the other direction. They deserve derision and shame for this. They were awful from the beginning of Trump's administration - Quinnipiac had Trump's approval in the mid 30s in January 2017 when the next lowest was PPP in the mid 40s. As long as someone like creepy Harry Enten has a hand in the polling operation (even if he isn't running the firm conducting polling, he is CNN's de facto polling director) it destroys their credibility.

COVID-19 disproportionately killed off black and especially Latino voters before the Presidential election. This was not widely known -- of it were known. Pollsters of all kinds did not know this, and pollsters that were generally understood to be reliable before 2020 were off. Only this week did the Centers for Disease Control give data valid for early July 2021 relating reduced life expectancy, most of which was outright deaths. Note that the data is for July 2021, and not for early November 2020. The differential may have become less severe or may not.  The CDC data do not answer that question, but they certainly give hints. 

With such data in hand (and it will be in hand because fast-changing demographic data can make folly of predictions), pollsters will do a better job of predicting electoral results in  later years. I expect pollsters to know this by late 2022 as COVID-19 peters out after taking its course. (Yes, I expect COVID-19 to peter out because even right-wing pols don't want their potential voters to die off to the electoral detriment of those pols.  I cannot say that we have yet gone through the last wave of infections and deaths, but we will know the full demographic effect upon 2022 midterms in 2022.

"Likely voters" typically quit voting when they die, and most jurisdictions disqualify the votes of deceased voters. Such happened in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in which Democratic victories depend heavily upon minority turnout. Pollsters greatly overestimated the numbers of black and Hispanic voters. It is safe to assume that practically all deaths from COVID-19 by November 2020 were of people of voting age.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Biden has the exact same Approvsks as he did on Election night 50/45% and we have broken boarders and we still don't have 1K Stimulus checks

Biden was at 51/46% on Election night and it's 50/45% and D's haven't passed VR to get rid of R Gerrymandering in the H, in Gallup, that's a 304 map, he isn't at 59% appreciate vals

In FL Rubio and DeSantis are popular because they visited the Surfside site where was Crist and Deming's, nowhere

Biden isn't at 60% anymore it's a 304 map not a 413 map, the polls were wrong in 2020 QU oversampled Biden plus 14 with Biden and predicted TX

I am not saying that we won't win but an RH abd a DS is probable, polls oversampled D's in 2020 not undersampled that's why our Predictions were wrong in KS, IA,TX, MT and AK in the oil stock ates

D's are passing a Medicate expansion bulill and Minimum wage bill and 26 states have minimum wage at 15 and we already have Dual coverage with Medicaid and Medicare we don't need that we need a 1K Stimulus checks, even people with kids are begging for another because guess what IRS haven't given their refunds and they pay property taxes

House we don't know but probably goes R, based on loosing seats in TX, FL, NC and IA and KS, in the Senate, D's lose GA if Abrams don't run for Gov and Mandela Barnes and Fettermans won in Senate and we win AZ, MA, NH and MD Gov loosing KS

That is a 304 map 50/45 and 51(46% matches on Election night

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election can change, I am not saying it won't but polls didn't underestimate D's in the last 3 cycles including 2016 when Hillary was supposed to help Strickland, Bath, McGinty, and Murphy across the finish line and ended in 2020 when Bullock was supposed to beat Daines

But, we still are in a Pandemic and VR reform hasn't passed thanks to Sinema, bit a 304 map is a winning map for Prez in 2024

Gallup has it 50/45 and the NPVI was 51/46%,on 2020, whereas, in 2008/12 that included IA, OH, NC, FL, in 2020, it includes AZ, GA and 278 states

Guess what happened in 2020 we won AZ and CO and lost AL in the Senate, just like in 2022 if Abrams don't run for Gov, we will win WI and PA and lose GA or NH that's an exact duplicate

[CascadianIndy]

Echelon Insights:

Biden Job Approval: 55/43 (EVEN)
Handling of COVID-19: 59/37 (-3)
The Economy: 52/45  (+1)
Foreign Policy: 46/45 (-4)
Immigration: 45/50 (+3)
Crime & Public Safety: 46/45 (First time being asked)

Biden Personal Approval: 53/45 (-1)
Harris Personal Approval: 48/47 (-2)


Also of note: Generic Congressional Ballot is a D lead of 7 points with 48/41, in comparison to 46/42 last month.

Link to more data here: https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/july-omnibus-political/

[Progressive Pessimist]

Echelon Insights:

Biden Job Approval: 55/43 (EVEN)
Handling of COVID-19: 59/37 (-3)
The Economy: 52/45  (+1)
Foreign Policy: 46/45 (-4)
Immigration: 45/50 (+3)
Crime & Public Safety: 46/45 (First time being asked)

Biden Personal Approval: 53/45 (-1)
Harris Personal Approval: 48/47 (-2)


Also of note: Generic Congressional Ballot is a D lead of 7 points with 48/41, in comparison to 46/42 last month.

Link to more data here: https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/july-omnibus-political/

I was intrigued at first, especially by Biden being at a net positive on crime (unheard of for a Democrat!) until I saw this. Trash it!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's have a turnout like a Prez Election not a Midterm we will keep the H and S, despite Voter Suppression

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before, 2021 midterms are gonna dictate the 2002 Elections,this is why Ds in absence of VR are begging Breyer to step down, to give Ds an advantage in Midterm


Newsom is Gray Davis voters are split over whether to Recall him 50/47

Biden is at 53% Approvals and sometimes you hear that the infrastructure bill is going thru flying colors, but then you hear no progress

This is why another round of Stimulus checks which is desperately needed should be added to Reconciliation but still no word on if Congress will extend Unemployment

[Orwell]

Echelon Insights:

Biden Job Approval: 55/43 (EVEN)
Handling of COVID-19: 59/37 (-3)
The Economy: 52/45  (+1)
Foreign Policy: 46/45 (-4)
Immigration: 45/50 (+3)
Crime & Public Safety: 46/45 (First time being asked)

Biden Personal Approval: 53/45 (-1)
Harris Personal Approval: 48/47 (-2)


Also of note: Generic Congressional Ballot is a D lead of 7 points with 48/41, in comparison to 46/42 last month.

Link to more data here: https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/july-omnibus-political/

I was intrigued at first, especially by Biden being at a net positive on crime (unheard of for a Democrat!) until I saw this. Trash it!

Pessimist is Pessimistic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Silver 278 blue wall we are gonna have at least 5o D Senators while AZ and GA are in flux, NV, NH, WI and PA will go D

But, with Gerrymandering districts and TX and FL, IA, NC and KS Reapportionment we need  hard gains in Cali, IL and NY, Both are gonna go R for Gov DeSantis and Rubio are gonna win on the Cuban crisis

DeSantis and Rubio and Wasserman Schultz were at Surfside not DEMINGS and Crist, they got a bump and Rick Scott is the arm of the RSCC


Is an upset possible not likely in FL, because we settled back to a polarized nation since Biden broke campaign promises, he didn't Eradicate Covid, he didn't forgive Student loans, he didn't Prosecute Trump on Ukraine like he said, regardless of whom is at fault over Covid, the burden is on Biden and he said when he issued those 1400 checks, I alone will stop Covid, we are still in masks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dr Rev Barber is taking the Lead on Filibuster Reform that Prez Biden or Leader Schumer isn't doing pass Filibuster reform to Sinema, because we lost Strickland and Kay Hagen in 2010 and 2014 during the R Gerrymandering last time, Warren or Bernie would have done what Rev Barber said in a Divided Senate and got their Veep Tins Smith to overturn the Parliamentary, Biden is a Clinton Dem that's why Carville defended Biden on Tara reade just like Monica Lewinsky on Clinton

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 24-27, 1500 adults including 1280 RV


Adults:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 44 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 45 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yep it's not a landslide Election, it's a NEUTRAL Environment and some pollster still insist he is still have sky high Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Covid and it's going out of comtrol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It amazes me that users on this Forum think WI Leans R and GA Leans D, and the two states have voted partisan trends for Prez since 1992, users think that WI, MN, PA are some type of Solid R state just because Hillary lost 2/3

[Real Texan Politics]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 24-27, 1500 adults including 1280 RV


Adults:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 44 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 45 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)

From what I saw on twitter, that’s a D+14 sample.
https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1420454694778855425?s=21

[THG]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 24-27, 1500 adults including 1280 RV


Adults:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 44 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 45 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)

From what I saw on twitter, that’s a D+14 sample.
https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1420454694778855425?s=21

Yeah, Biden only being +4 in a D+14 sample is pretty abysmal.

I wonder what his approval rating adjusted to a D+4 environment (the national environment of the 2020 election) would be.

40-46%-ish? Sounds about correct.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 24-27, 1500 adults including 1280 RV


Adults:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 44 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 45 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)

From what I saw on twitter, that’s a D+14 sample.
https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1420454694778855425?s=21

One thing to keep in mind is that this poll's samples usually have a relatively (and IMO unrealistically) high percentage of independents compared to some other polls, such as the Ipsos tracker.  Depending on how those independents lean, it can affect the results greatly, so I think it's overly simplistic to look at just the D/R split. 

The party breakdown in this week's sample is:

D - 531 (40.1%)
R - 353 (26.6%)
I - 443 (33.4%)

For this poll, it may be more useful to look at the ideology breakdown.  In this week's sample:

Liberal - 436 (34.7%)
Moderate - 430 (32.0%)
Conservative - 448 (33.3%)

[THG]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1420476812593876993

For a D+14 sample, those numbers ain't beautiful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden still has a 50 or greater Approval rating in the 291 Map MI, PA, and WI is this new, that North in R Administration moves Left like in 2018/ when an R Prez is in office and South moves Right when a D administration is in office no it's not, Biden is still on track to get Reelected he only needs 278EC votes

Especially when Trump is still free and not being Prosecuted

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1420476812593876993

For a D+14 sample, those numbers ain't beautiful.

Why do white women with college degrees live him so much?