TX-SEN: True to Form

[Antonio the Sixth]

TX Republicans have been diving head first into the gutter over the past few weeks, which is quite different from the last year and a half where they've barely acknowledged O'Rourke's presence, or only did so to occasionally mock him. Looks like they're getting pretty nervous.

Yeah, things like these make me feel more optimistic for Beto if anything. They're last-ditch effort by a campaign that's hitting the panic button, not a carefully crafted strategy.

[Skye]

Sabato moves the race to Lean R, from Likely R.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-at-least-for-now-the-elephant-endures/

[windjammer]

Sabato moves the race to Lean R, from Likely R.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-at-least-for-now-the-elephant-endures/

Finally, it has been obvious for quite some times now that this race is Lean Rep.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Daily Kos claims that "holy crap, we can win Texas!"

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Ok, "stellar campaign" by Beto O'Rourke.

He also has that Civiqs poll that supposedly has Beto up by 1% embedded in the post at the link.



Relatedly, just before the election in 2004, Kos said:

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How did that turn out?

Republicans win. Coburn 52.77% - Carson 41.24%

Yeah, "one hell of a candidate" Brad Carson. He was probably running a "stellar campaign" like Beto O'Rourke.

Real close, an 11.5 point race. A literal coin flip leaning Dem.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean yeah, DK is usually pretty hackish, but that doesn't mean they're wrong in this particular case.

[junior chįmp]

Lowest Ive seen Ted on the betting markets:

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I found this necessary to make.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I found this necessary to make.

Go to your room

[Doimper]

No wonder Cruz is freaking out.

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[tallguy23]

O'Rourke is a remarkable candidate who's running a stellar campaign. I have GOP friends in TX who are considering voting for him because he comes off as more genuine (Cruz does not). They don't agree with a lot of what he stands for but they appreciate him being straightforward and actually showing up to talk to people.

[IceSpear]

No wonder Cruz is freaking out.

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Well, that would have to be the case if he's doing identical or worse than Hillary with minorities and the rural vote but the polls are consistently closer than 9 points.

Don't tell RINO Tom though. And remember, it's impossible for ANY Democrat to do better in the suburbs than Perfect Amazing Fit For The Suburbs™ Hillary Clinton did, especially against a "normal" non Trump Republican! You know, even though she had like a 40% favorability rating and the vast majority of Democrats in 2017-2018 have done far better in the suburbs than she did.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

No wonder Cruz is freaking out.

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Yeah, that is really big news if true. That is exactly what he has to do to have any chance of winning. He needs white college-educated suburbanites in TX who have never voted for a Democrat to suddenly start voting the same way as white college-educated suburbanites in other states.

[Zaybay]

No wonder Cruz is freaking out.

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Makes sense, that would explain the closeness of the race we have been seeing.

[IceSpear]

O'Rourke is a remarkable candidate who's running a stellar campaign. I have GOP friends in TX who are considering voting for him because he comes off as more genuine (Cruz does not). They don't agree with a lot of what he stands for but they appreciate him being straightforward and actually showing up to talk to people.

This race is starting to look more and more like Blunt vs. Kander.

[Tartarus Sauce]

O'Rourke is a remarkable candidate who's running a stellar campaign. I have GOP friends in TX who are considering voting for him because he comes off as more genuine (Cruz does not). They don't agree with a lot of what he stands for but they appreciate him being straightforward and actually showing up to talk to people.

This race is starting to look more and more like Blunt vs. Kander.

Kander likely would have won if the race were held in 2018.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Rourke is obviously losing, but hopefully he can give coattails to pull a few congressional seats to our column.

[Zaybay]

O'Rourke is obviously losing, but hopefully he can give coattails to pull a few congressional seats to our column.

Wouldnt call this 3 months out Bagel

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Rourke is obviously losing, but hopefully he can give coattails to pull a few congressional seats to our column.

Wouldnt call this 3 months out Bagel

It's less than 2 buddy, but you are right anyways, I won't rule it out.

[Doimper]

O'Rourke is obviously losing

this poster is obviously a loser

[Calthrina950]

O'Rourke is obviously losing

this poster is obviously a loser

Your ad hominem attacks do you no favor. Bagel23 is saying that O'Rourke still trails Cruz in the polls, but he is doing better than initially expected. Perhaps if you acknowledged that before attacking this person directly, people would be more inclined to take your views more seriously.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Rourke is obviously losing

this poster is obviously a loser

Classic far left wing distraction tactic.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Your ad hominem attacks do you no favor. Bagel23 is saying that O'Rourke still trails Cruz in the polls, but he is doing better than initially expected. Perhaps if you acknowledged that before attacking this person directly, people would be more inclined to take your views more seriously.

LOL, Doctor Imperialism was clearly joking. People would be more inclined to take you more seriously if you picked up on that sort of thing.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wouldnt call this 3 months out Bagel

It's less than 2 buddy, but you are right anyways, I won't rule it out.

On the other hand, I would definitely rule it out 2-3 months in advance

[Calthrina950]

Your ad hominem attacks do you no favor. Bagel23 is saying that O'Rourke still trails Cruz in the polls, but he is doing better than initially expected. Perhaps if you acknowledged that before attacking this person directly, people would be more inclined to take your views more seriously.

LOL, Doctor Imperialism was clearly joking. People would be more inclined to take you more seriously if you picked up on that sort of thing.

That is not what he was doing, and you should know better than that. And your response to me does little credit to your cause as well. Mocking and laughing at people, such as you have done, makes them less likely to want to have anything to do with you.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Your ad hominem attacks do you no favor. Bagel23 is saying that O'Rourke still trails Cruz in the polls, but he is doing better than initially expected. Perhaps if you acknowledged that before attacking this person directly, people would be more inclined to take your views more seriously.

LOL, Doctor Imperialism was clearly joking. People would be more inclined to take you more seriously if you picked up on that sort of thing.

That is not what he was doing, and you should know better than that. And your response to me does little credit to your cause as well. Mocking and laughing at people, such as you have done, makes them less likely to want to have anything to do with you.

I think it is pretty obvious that he was joking. It is by far the more likely explanation given the context. If he wasn't, then there was no reason for it, but there is absolutely no reason to presume that.