TX-SEN: True to Form

[Brittain33]

Lying Ted meltdown continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesoliphant/status/1038549935489253377

This sounds like something a middle aged white guy would be saying in like 1965.

I'm so confused. Republicans should be competent at this flavor of culture war. For some reason, when they're bringing their campaign managers to Cruz, they're not bringing their best. I could rewrite this attack on California (the land of fruits and nuts,,) better than Cruz.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lying Ted meltdown continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesoliphant/status/1038549935489253377

This sounds like something a middle aged white guy would be saying in like 1965.

I'm so confused. Republicans should be competent at this flavor of culture war. For some reason, when they're bringing their campaign managers to Cruz, they're not bringing their best. I could rewrite this attack on California (the land of fruits and nuts,,) better than Cruz.

This is apparently a new standard-issue GOP attack line.  They're using a similar attack on Stacey Abrams here in Georgia: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/new-gop-line-abrams-will-turn-georgia-into-the-next-california/I92oBGDfWRYytm7T4dPw5N/.

[Brittain33]

Lying Ted meltdown continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesoliphant/status/1038549935489253377

This sounds like something a middle aged white guy would be saying in like 1965.

I'm so confused. Republicans should be competent at this flavor of culture war. For some reason, when they're bringing their campaign managers to Cruz, they're not bringing their best. I could rewrite this attack on California (the land of fruits and nuts,,) better than Cruz.

This is apparently a new standard-issue GOP attack line.  They're using a similar attack on Stacey Abrams here in Georgia: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/new-gop-line-abrams-will-turn-georgia-into-the-next-california/I92oBGDfWRYytm7T4dPw5N/.

Yeah. I can see why "the next California" would be effective. But "dyed hair" - clearly they were going for purple hair etc., but loads of Texans color their hair and no one cares. Silicon, huh? Tofu is the only one which is kind of on track. But I get they can't say "with its ethnic diversity and embrace of gays" which is what they really want to say.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love how neither mentions any of the things that are actual problems in California, like say, skyrocketing housing prices and chronic droughts. Oh wait, that's because Republicans are 100% fine with mass poverty and environmental disruption.

[UWS]

Lying Ted meltdown continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesoliphant/status/1038549935489253377

This sounds like something a middle aged white guy would be saying in like 1965.

I'm so confused. Republicans should be competent at this flavor of culture war. For some reason, when they're bringing their campaign managers to Cruz, they're not bringing their best. I could rewrite this attack on California (the land of fruits and nuts,,) better than Cruz.

This is apparently a new standard-issue GOP attack line.  They're using a similar attack on Stacey Abrams here in Georgia: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/new-gop-line-abrams-will-turn-georgia-into-the-next-california/I92oBGDfWRYytm7T4dPw5N/.

Yeah. I can see why "the next California" would be effective. But "dyed hair" - clearly they were going for purple hair etc., but loads of Texans color their hair and no one cares. Silicon, huh? Tofu is the only one which is kind of on track. But I get they can't say "with its ethnic diversity and embrace of gays" which is what they really want to say.

I think this attack on California by Lyin' Ted is worse than when he criticized Trump on New York values.

[junior chįmp]

TX Dems troll game is on point:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AntonioArellano/status/1036830405134098433

[Skill and Chance]

I'm still a Texas skeptic, but I'm wondering what a potential win for O'Rourke would look like. Fortunately, he doesn't need a majority to win. Merely a plurality. My best guess would be something like this:
-60% in Harris County
-66% in Dallas County
-55% in Fort Bend
-plurality wins in Tarrant County and Williamson County
-75% in El Paso
-45% in Collin County
-45% in Denton County
-high mid-single digit wins in Hays, Jefferson, and Nueces County
-30% in Montgomery County (maybe too ambitious?)
-70% in Travis County
-60% in Bexar County
-shave about 5-10% off the Trump-Clinton margins in rural Texas.

That would point to about a 1-2% O'Rourke win

I think you may be overestimating the rural/small town vote he can plausibly get and underestimating what he needs in the urban/suburban counties.

In the rural areas, I would be (pleasantly) surprised if he can do any more than get back to Obama 2012 (particularly given that it is a midterm where non-white turnout is traditionally lower, and most of the votes Obama/Hillary would have gotten in rural areas are from non-whites). Even just getting back to Obama 2012 wouldn't be bad.

For example in Williamson County, although Clinton only got 41%, Trump only got 51%. A decent number of those 3rd party votes would not have gone 3rd party if they thought that TX's electoral votes would be competitive, and the rest of those voters are, I would think, much more winnable in a competitive Senate race than most rural Trump voters. Beto gets close to a plurality win just by winning over the 3rd party voters, so I think that he would want to do better than just a plurality win.

Agreed.  Any Dem without rural roots needs to beat Clinton substantially in the 5-10 largest cities to have a chance statewide.  Beto would need to basically win everyone who voted for someone other than Trump in 2016, plus have a turnout advantage, to tie statewide.  Think the Clinton 2016->Northam 2017 swing in VA, but on steroids.  Given that he will likely underperform in South Texas, he probably needs 70%+ in Travis and Dallas, and 65%+ in Harris, the latter being more ambiguous because Cruz is from there.

[Crumpets]

TX Dems troll game is on point:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AntonioArellano/status/1036830405134098433

Cruz should hit back by reminding Texans that Trump wants to take their guns without due process.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10214553180518052&id=1077254779&_rdr

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Borden County Texas O Rourke voter?

[Torrain]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/09/ted-cruz-reelection-trump-813354

Interesting piece from Politico about the scramble to save Cruz
Not much new information though. The title is a bit clickbaity. Basically, GOP groups are freaking out about being outspent so much, and the master strategy seems to be to deploy Trump and Sen. Cornyn as much as possible in October.

Heavy retail campaigning from Cornyn could hurt O'Rourke, given his popularity. But, as Politico pointed out, Cruz wouldn't even endorse his fellow senator in 2014, so maybe there's a way to separate the two senators in the minds of voters.

Trump will be Trump. We'll be reminded that Cruz is strong on borders, vets and draining the swamp, while O'Rourke will let in the scary foreigners, legalise crime and side with MS13. A unique message tailored to the race (lol). I can't imagine it will change too many minds.

[Indy Texas]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/09/ted-cruz-reelection-trump-813354

Interesting piece from Politico about the scramble to save Cruz
Not much new information though. The title is a bit clickbaity. Basically, GOP groups are freaking out about being outspent so much, and the master strategy seems to be to deploy Trump and Sen. Cornyn as much as possible in October.

Heavy retail campaigning from Cornyn could hurt O'Rourke, given his popularity. But, as Politico pointed out, Cruz wouldn't even endorse his fellow senator in 2014, so maybe there's a way to separate the two senators in the minds of voters.

Trump will be Trump. We'll be reminded that Cruz is strong on borders, vets and draining the swamp, while O'Rourke will let in the scary foreigners, legalise crime and side with MS13. A unique message tailored to the race (lol). I can't imagine it will change too many minds.

Cornyn got 59% of the vote in the 2014 GOP primary. He faced no serious opposition - the other 41% was split among Rep. Steve Stockman and various protest candidates.

Cornyn is not a good choice to energize GOP base turnout or appeal to independent voters.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is it just me and I'm a complete fool, or more people here who thought Beto is actually Hispanic? I thought he is of Mexican heritage, just to learn that he has Irish roots.

[Torrain]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/09/ted-cruz-reelection-trump-813354

Interesting piece from Politico about the scramble to save Cruz
Not much new information though. The title is a bit clickbaity. Basically, GOP groups are freaking out about being outspent so much, and the master strategy seems to be to deploy Trump and Sen. Cornyn as much as possible in October.

Heavy retail campaigning from Cornyn could hurt O'Rourke, given his popularity. But, as Politico pointed out, Cruz wouldn't even endorse his fellow senator in 2014, so maybe there's a way to separate the two senators in the minds of voters.

Trump will be Trump. We'll be reminded that Cruz is strong on borders, vets and draining the swamp, while O'Rourke will let in the scary foreigners, legalise crime and side with MS13. A unique message tailored to the race (lol). I can't imagine it will change too many minds.

Cornyn got 59% of the vote in the 2014 GOP primary. He faced no serious opposition - the other 41% was split among Rep. Steve Stockman and various protest candidates.

Cornyn is not a good choice to energize GOP base turnout or appeal to independent voters.

Fair point. I was thinking of his recent wins, but of course the 2018 voter pool in Texas is unlikely to look like the 2014 voter pool.

[Doimper]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/09/ted-cruz-reelection-trump-813354

Interesting piece from Politico about the scramble to save Cruz
Not much new information though. The title is a bit clickbaity. Basically, GOP groups are freaking out about being outspent so much, and the master strategy seems to be to deploy Trump and Sen. Cornyn as much as possible in October.

Heavy retail campaigning from Cornyn could hurt O'Rourke, given his popularity. But, as Politico pointed out, Cruz wouldn't even endorse his fellow senator in 2014, so maybe there's a way to separate the two senators in the minds of voters.

Trump will be Trump. We'll be reminded that Cruz is strong on borders, vets and draining the swamp, while O'Rourke will let in the scary foreigners, legalise crime and side with MS13. A unique message tailored to the race (lol). I can't imagine it will change too many minds.

This "scramble" should have been happening months ago. Sucks for them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it just me and I'm a complete fool, or more people here who thought Beto is actually Hispanic? I thought he is of Mexican heritage, just to learn that he has Irish roots.

I mean, the "O'Rourke" part seems like a pretty big giveaway.

[Tintrlvr]

Is it just me and I'm a complete fool, or more people here who thought Beto is actually Hispanic? I thought he is of Mexican heritage, just to learn that he has Irish roots.

I mean, the "O'Rourke" part seems like a pretty big giveaway.

There are definitely Irish-Mexicans (and, more generally, a significant number of Mexicans with non-Spanish European surnames, though not quite so many as in, say, Argentina or Chile).

[Politician]

Beto, with Obama Clinton coalition, will beat T Cruz

[MAINEiac4434]

Jalaketu West has said a number of objectionable things to me previously. At any rate, this thread should not be derailed any further then it already has been.

Whether or not Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West has said objectionable things to you previously is irrelevant to the intellectual argument advanced by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West. That argument was namely that the purpose Doctor Imperialism was trying to achieve with Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism's post was to achieve the behavior known as "humor." Now, let's be clear. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West's argument that the purpose Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism was trying to achieve with Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism's post was to achieve the behavior known as "humor" is either a valid argument or an invalid argument, but its validity or invalidity does not depend upon the fact that Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu was the person who put forth the argument into a public forum for our mutual due consideration and debate. Determining the validity of Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalekatu West's argument, rather, requires making an extensive and detailed list of the points that are pro and the points that are con. You must consider both sides of the argument in weighing the quality of the claim, and then think "on the one hand x, but on the other hand y."

In addition to this argument, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West also deigned to make a suggestion that you yourself might consider trying to engage in the behavior known as "humor" some time. Of course, it goes without saying that in order to do such a thing you would also need to formulate a list of the arguments in favor and opposed to engaging in such a behavior. Now, let's be clear once again. The suggestion advanced by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West could be either a good suggestion or a bad suggestion, but the quality of the suggestion doesn't depend upon whether it was made by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jaleketu West, or alternatively by Donald Trump or Barack Obama (neither of whom, as far as I am aware, are Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered Users). Whoever made the suggestion, it is either a good one or a bad one on its own actual merits, wouldn't you say?

I hope that this post has been edifying and makes it easier to understand how to proceed in analyzing arguments on an online bulletin board such as the Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Congressional Elections sub-forum.

Marry me

[The Mikado]

I could rewrite this attack on California (the land of fruits and nuts,,) better than Cruz.

Even in Texas, in 2018 blatant, raw homophobia isn't the winning move. You have to be subtle and talk about "elitist outside agitators trying to undermine our way of life" rather than using blatant slurs like fruits.

[junior chįmp]

The turtle has emerged from his shell to sound the alarm

Mitch McConnell is the latest top Republican to say Ted Cruz faces a fight in red Texas

[Florida Man for Crime]

I made some benchmarks as rough estimates for the sorts of numbers Beto would need in order to achieve a narrow plurality victory (49.6%-49.5%).

These numbers should not be taken to indicate what I think is actually achievable, but rather what, more or less, would be needed for Beto to have a chance. I think they illustrate how difficult it would be for him to win.

The numbers for the urban/suburban counties actually ended up fairly close to what Mizzouian/Republicans for Nelson posted earlier (somewhat more than I would have guessed beforehand), although they are also a few points higher.


These benchmarks use 2014 turnout as a starting point for the share of votes cast in each county, and modify this to allow for increased turnout in urban and suburban counties, particularly the large and growing ones in the major metropolitan areas, and some smaller increases in turnout in counties with smaller cities (but not really "rural") and Hispanic border counties.

The starting point for the Democratic and Republican vote shares within each county is the Dem margin is whichever of the following 2 are higher:

a) The Clinton-Trump 2016 margin, with 3rd party votes significantly reduced and allocated mostly to Dems. Beto is assigned 70% of the Johnson voters, 85% of the Stein voters, and 35% of the write-in voters. Cruz is assigned 15% of the Johnson voters and 15% of the write-in voters.

OR

b) The Obama-Romney 2012 margin.

So basically, as a starting point this has O'Rourke doing at least as well as Clinton in the areas where Clinton did well in 2016, and as well as Obama 2012 in the areas where Clinton did worse than Obama.


This is then modified to account somewhat for Cruz's regional strength and weaknesses in the 2012 vote, as compared to Romney. Cruz did a bit better then in Latino areas, and a bit worse in Demosaur/rural racist areas (probably related to his surname and ethnicity). Half of the deviation between Cruz and Romney, relative to the overall statewide difference, is incorporated in this adjustment.

Next, 9% of Republican voters in major urban/suburban counties with lots of college educated white voters are swung to Democrats, and 2% of Republican voters in counties with smaller cities. The swing in El Paso is made larger (20% of Republican voters swing to Beto) to account for a presumed home town effect for Beto. There is no additional swing in rural counties, or in Hispanic counties.


The margins that Beto would need would look something like this on a county map:




Here's the swing in the margin as compared to the Clinton-Trump margin in the 2016 presidential race. This has large gains (in terms of percentage margin) for Dems in many rural counties with dwindling Demosaur populations relative to what Clinton got, to get back up towards the support levels Obama got in 2012, and also has substantial additional improvements over the gains Clinton already got in urban and suburban counties. The Hispanic border areas are a bit more of a mixed bag, with Beto expected to underperform there somewhat in at least some places:



And here's the swing as compared to the 2012 Senate race (Cruz against Sadler). This has Democrats making large gains in urban/suburban areas, but Republicans making some gains in rural areas that swung to Trump in 2016:




Here are these benchmarks sorted from largest turnout county to smallest:

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Here's the swing in the Dem margin from 2016-Pres:

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And here's the swing in the Dem margin from 2012-Sen:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Nice work!

[Brittain33]

It is still so weird to see Fort Bend as a Democratic county.