COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1246547983581286403


A taste of what could happen, if Hillary won. Reducing of flights from China likely would be considered xenophobic and US would have gotten (ten?) thousands of additional imported cases. A 1,000 new cases become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.

Probably the only thing he got right. That was not enough, as the data shows. The closing of travel to Europe was bungled since people rushed back to the states and airports in cities like New York and Chicago were absolutely crushed by people returning from Europe. Perfect place for the virus to spread into multiple other communities across the US. Looking at the places that are most affected, I would say more cases came from Europe rather than China.

And I won't even go into the testing failure.......that is the main reason why the US is in the predicament it is in.

Except Trump didn't really close travel to China:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

[Virginiá]

This week, the trash bags were restocked. There were about three lonely packs of toilet paper on one end of the vast shelf (50 feet?), down by the trash bags. I really had to think about grabbing a pack, even though I only buy toilet paper every few months.

I imagine part of the reason is that it's so easy to deplete a store's stock of paper products because they take up a lot of space - the multi-roll packs, anyway.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

We still would have had hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths.

So top 5 populous European Countries have already almost 50k deaths, but you really think that with Hillary US "would have had hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths"? You can't be serious.


I agree, though, that Pr. Hillary would never got as good Economical Stimulus as Trump did, because evil GOP would push against it. Frankly, I don't think that Pr. Cruz or even Pr. Rubio would have managed this, either, but likely they'd get more than Hillary. Luckily, (R) Populist Trump won.

[Landslide Lyndon]

To our posters who have gotten this virus (TSA, PQG, maybe someone else), are you feeling any better?

No, not really.  On the bright side, though, my symptoms haven't really progressed.  

The fever is still very uncomfortable (even without physical exertion, I'm sweating through at least five or six shirts a day) and there's a sharp pain in my chest when I breath in.  This cough is heavy and wakes me up during the night, too.  But it's still nothing that I can't handle.  

Thank you for asking!

I had the same experience some years ago when I had the common flu. When this whole thing goes away, be prepared to feel like sh**t for another week or two before your body recovers.
This kind of illnesses take a heavy toll even on young, healthy individuals.

[Mr. Reactionary]

We still would have had hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths.

So top 5 populous European Countries have already almost 50k deaths, but you really think that with Hillary US "would have had hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths"? You can't be serious.


I agree, though, that Pr. Hillary would never got as good Economical Stimulus as Trump did, because evil GOP would push against it. Frankly, I don't think that Pr. Cruz or even Pr. Rubio would have managed this, either, but likely they'd get more than Hillary. Luckily, (R) Populist Trump won.

These are the same hacks that claim "if only Al Gore had won, the terrorists never would have succeeded on 9/11." Its all a fantasy to them.

[Tender Branson]

To our posters who have gotten this virus (TSA, PQG, maybe someone else), are you feeling any better?

Yes.

Much better. During the start of the week, I felt a chest pain - like a large animal (an overweight cat 🐈 or something) sitting on it. Or pieces of glass inside my lungs.

The next day I had a slight fever 🤒 and some light coughing. The chest pain eventually got worse and the breathing more heavy, but I used a magical Thai ointment that I got a few years back and put it on my chest. It helped a lot.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To our posters who have gotten this virus (TSA, PQG, maybe someone else), are you feeling any better?

No, not really.  On the bright side, though, my symptoms haven't really progressed.  

The fever is still very uncomfortable (even without physical exertion, I'm sweating through at least five or six shirts a day) and there's a sharp pain in my chest when I breath in.  This cough is heavy and wakes me up during the night, too.  But it's still nothing that I can't handle.  

Thank you for asking!

I had the same experience some years ago when I had the common flu. When this whole thing goes away, be prepared to feel like sh**t for another week or two before your body recovers.
This kind of illnesses take a heavy toll even on young, healthy individuals.

I've had the flu before - I've never experienced this level of respiratory discomfort. 

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246538228267712514

Truly, Mr. Trump and his Republicans have made America First!

Just a little help to interpret this graph: It is on a semi-logarithmic scale, i e a linear slope means exponentional growth. Thus a linear slope suggests ineffective measurements and a continueing spreading of COVID-19. The earlier a plateau is reached, the better the response.

The big question is what happens once a return to normalcy arrives. Flatten the curve also means less people actually get immune. And currently the only way to get immunity is through getting the virus.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1246547983581286403
A taste of what could happen, if Hillary won. Reducing of flights from China likely would be considered xenophobic and US would have gotten (ten?) thousands of additional imported cases. A 1,000 new cases become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.

Probably the only thing he got right. That was not enough, as the data shows. The closing of travel to Europe was bungled since people rushed back to the states and airports in cities like New York and Chicago were absolutely crushed by people returning from Europe. Perfect place for the virus to spread into multiple other communities across the US. Looking at the places that are most affected, I would say more cases came from Europe rather than China.

And I won't even go into the testing failure.......that is the main reason why the US is in the predicament it is in.

Obviously, it wasn't enough. Had he gotten credit for that, then, perhaps, he would ban Europe sooner as well. As late as it was, it was controversial according to MSM and Dems, even though Europe followed it in a week or so. In the beginning, it was undoubtfully most effective measure, and Democrats should press Trump to do it EARLIER and MORE, not LATER and LESS. Trump should have restricted flights between states. Really stupid.

Testing? How's that Trump's fault? My understanding that CDC did as they usually do and tried to make their own test instead of relying on WHO and was too late to let private firms start it. It't not like it was Trump's idea or that he ordered them not to. Trump followed CDC's expertise (https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership.htm), didn't he? You think that Hillary would press the experts of CDC to go private? Perhaps, she could, but I doubt it'd be significant diff.

Lock-downs and social distancing as Brittain33 suggested? Sure, Trump should've been quicker, but per NyT https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage




84% reduction travel distance in Counties with stay-at- home orders by March 27
vs
67% reduction travel distance in Counties without stay-at-home orders by March 27

But as you see, those without stay-at-home orders are often little rural counties, that is Food Desert effect kicks in.


It is per Nate Silver

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1245743315938574340
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246509718249656320

IMO, plain simple fear made a big diff, too. If you leave in NYC, you don't need an order to stay home. Fear will make you.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

IMO, plain simple fear made a big diff, too. If you leave in NYC, you don't need an order to stay home. Fear will make you.

I am terrified of my own government more than anything else.

I take great caution not to spread this virus. But I know that's not enough for them. It never will be.

My heart has been racing for weeks out of fear of the government.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

@ Sbane

It was a long messy post, my point is that I haven't yet seen a realistic timeline of (D) Pr response that would've been significantly better than Trump's without restrictions of flights from China and later Europa. In this case you've have needed even more testing, so how would (D) have fixed that in early March?

[President Johnson]

New York

https://twitter.com/LtGovHochulNY/status/1246774931452559361

[Brittain33]

Whether a President Clinton would have reduced casualties by 98-99% or merely 70-80% compared to the deaths from Trump’s shambolic leadership, we can all agree that a Republican-led Congress and Fox News led by Sean Hannity, Trish Regan, and other leading lights would have absolutely savaged her for not taking it seriously from the very beginning, and she would have been hauled before Congress for hearings and probably impeached. It would have been a United Republican front just like on Ebola on 2014.

[jamestroll]

I just want to check.

I think we should be locked down till early or mid June. Others say the end of this month and we even have some saying no lock down at all.

No one here is seriously wanting us all locked down and trapped in our houses and large amounts of people on unemployment until every last person in the world has been vaccinated right?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Whether a President Clinton would have reduced casualties by 98-99% or merely 70-80%

Or more realistically (IMO) a big increase due to Travel Restrictions against China likely would be implemented way later. Reminder how exponential growth works
A 1,000 additional due to NOT HAVING FLIGHT BAN cases would become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.



Re: lagging of testing

CNN has a good overview:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/us-coronavirus-tests-invs/index.html

The CDC's first test didn't work
In January, shortly after Chinese authorities identified a novel coronavirus as the cause of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, the World Health Organization published a protocol with instructions for any country to manufacture tests for the virus.
Rather than using that protocol, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed its own test. A WHO spokesperson said this week that the WHO didn't offer tests to the CDC because the US agency typically has the capacity to manufacture them itself.
On February 5, the CDC said it would begin shipping test kits to health labs throughout the country, but in subsequent days public labs found a defect. When public labs first receive any test kit, they first verify that it works.

A CDC official said on February 12 a part of the test needed to be remanufactured.

Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology and immunology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said that in addition to originally sending out flawed tests, the CDC added to the confusion by providing limited information to labs in the weeks that followed.

Jeremy Konyndyk, an expert on global pandemic preparedness, agreed that significant delays resulted from the CDC sticking with only its test.

Fauci has said the CDC has for years followed a process of developing its own test and providing that to public health departments throughout the country.
Though when asked during CNN's coronavirus town hall last week whether the US should have used the WHO tests, Fauci said, "If you look back and Monday morning quarterback it would have been nice to have had a backup."

While some blame of lame testing is, obviously, on Trump, most aren't (read article). So stop pretend like with Hillary you'd have a magical wand and million tests per day. People in CDC failed. Including Fauci. They likely wouldn't be overruled by Hillary (because Hillary muh listens to experts). Stop pretend like they would.

[Brittain33]

Not interested in arguing with the Internet Research Agency, it’s beyond dispute that community spread in the U.S for months while Trump downplayed the crisis is why so many people will needlessly die.

[Brittain33]

“I’m going to imagine Hillary Clinton doesn’t ban travel from China and poof, everything is worse than the worst case scenario we’re already living” when:

1. Trump had Inksed up so many other things in the last three months, he’s already needlessly inflated the totals
2. Travel from China is just one of many possible sources of transmission, and once the virus is here, you have to tackle all of them—including community spread
3. Travel bans made things worse when all Americans came home to immigration and customs unprepared for the rush, causing them to infect each other in airports before flying home
4. In my imagination, Clinton bans travel from China too, so she saves even more lives. After all, if it’s the right thing to do, the Pandemic response team in the White House Trump dissolved would have recommended it. Unless we don’t believe experts matter, still.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1246825831864963073

Alex Berenson, a retired NYT reporter, has been tweeting a lot comparing daily case numbers with the predictions from the University of Wisconsin model (which is the model that motivated a lot of the current restrictions since it came out on March 26).

In short, it looks like new hospital admits for COVID-19 (a leading variable) are severely under-performing the model's predictions not just in New York, but around the country.  In a lot of areas, ICUs are actually less full then they were a week ago.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In short, it looks like new hospital admits for COVID-19 (a leading variable) are severely under-performing the model's predictions not just in New York, but around the country.  In a lot of areas, ICUs are actually less full then they were a week ago.

At this point, I'm skeptical that hospital usage and deaths are going to be less than what this model says. I look at Worldometers each day, and somehow the number of new cases in the U.S. always manages to blast through what I predict.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

There is not even a little bit of doubt in my mind that Hillary Clinton would not have moved the death total so much as an inch. Of course, the right wing media would be hammering her for the same situation all day long, but the situation wouldn't be any different and our confirmed case count might simply be much higher.

[Beet]

(Minor) good news- we finally have a study of the vulnerability of the virus to various household cleaners. Previous studies published relied on testing done on other, similar viruses, such as SARS-1 or other coronaviruses. The EPA approved list is simply compiled based on products proven to work on "hard to kill" viruses.

Tables:
https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S2666-5247(20)30003-3/attachment/34ed069e-7268-42ae-8627-df3aa869d81b/mmc1.pdf
Full Study:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30003-3/fulltext#seccestitle10

The following disinfectants work at 5 minutes' exposure at 22degC (or 71degF):
Household bleach (1:49)
Ethanol (70%)
Povidone‐iodine (7.5%)
Chloroxylenol (0.05%)
Chlorhexidine (0.05%
Benzalkonium chloride (0.1%)

It also confirms the virus is sensitive to heat. At 37degC (99degF) the logarithmic decay after 1 day was about 50%, whereas the same decay at 22degC (71degF) took 7 days, and there was almost no logarithmic decay even at 14 days at 4degC (39degF).

[Dr. Arch]

(Minor) good news- we finally have a study of the vulnerability of the virus to various household cleaners. Previous studies published relied on testing done on other, similar viruses, such as SARS-1 or other coronaviruses. The EPA approved list is simply compiled based on products proven to work on "hard to kill" viruses.

https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S2666-5247(20)30003-3/attachment/34ed069e-7268-42ae-8627-df3aa869d81b/mmc1.pdf

The following disinfectants work at 5 minutes' exposure at 22degC (or 71degF):
Household bleach (1:49)
Ethanol (70%)
Povidone‐iodine (7.5%)
Chloroxylenol (0.05%)
Chlorhexidine (0.05%
Benzalkonium chloride (0.1%)

It also confirms the virus is sensitive to heat. At 37degC (99degF) the logarithmic decay after 1 day was about 50%, whereas the same decay at 22degC (71degF) took 7 days, and there was almost no logarithmic decay even at 14 days at 4degC (39degF).

It's going to be a while until we reach those temperatures.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Having it I can tell you it's not fun having it, but if people want to be dumba$$es and get it, let them

Except people like my fiancee will have to die for their stupidity. And these are going to be the same morons who will just walk into a hospital ER waiting room with no mask on coughing on everybody in sight.

This is why we should make an isolated unpopulated island (or perhaps multiple islands, depending on demand) in the Pacific be "COVID-19 freedom island" and people like Bandit should be allowed to go there. "COVID-19 freedom island" is an island where people who wish to get intentionally infected can do so. You are only allowed to leave the island a certain time after you have gotten infected and recovered, and are certified to no longer be contagious. After that, Bandit can leave the island and go on with his life for as long as he remains immune (depending on how long immunity lasts). Or alternatively, there's a chance that Bandit will be dead or perhaps end up suffering from lifelong damage to his lungs. Either way, that is a chance that Bandit is willing to take, and an outcome he is comfortable with accepting. This way people such as Bandit can get voluntarily/intentionally infected without risk of them infecting others who do not wish to be infected.

[riceowl]

Wow, look at the tracker today. Nearly every state seeing decreases in new cases compared to yesterday. Looks like the tide has turned more quickly than anyone expected and Trump has saved the country from disaster, expect a big approval bump.

Hopefully, but it could also just be the Sunday/weekend effect that we've seen before.

[Frodo]

Wow, look at the tracker today. Nearly every state seeing decreases in new cases compared to yesterday. Looks like the tide has turned more quickly than anyone expected and Trump has saved the country from disaster, expect a big approval bump.

That tracker you're citing may not be entirely accurate:

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count