When when Marco Rubio implode?

[mencken]

The problem with this reasoning is that I do not necessarily think any of these candidates are going to 'implode'. For example, Carson will still lose the nomination if he cannot get beyond the ~20% of support that he current has (just as Huckabee lost in 2008 without losing most of his supporters). Similarly, Rubio is still on track to lose (even if he does get the support of every other establishment-oriented candidate running) unless he can make inroads with current Trump, Carson, and Cruz supporters. Romney had a ceiling of 25% (almost identical to the current support levels for non-TCC candidates), which only rose into the mid-30s after events in the primary process convinced voters that he was invincible (this actually happened three times: once after his tie in Iowa and landslide in New Hampshire, once after he vanquished Gingrich in Florida, and finally after beating Santorum in Michigan). Rubio does not seem to understand at the moment that you have to play to win; he has not spent that much time in the early states. I would guess that his strategy is to just flood New Hampshire with advertisements the week before the primary, but that seems to be placing all his eggs in one basket (Carson may have done that successfully in Iowa, but he actually has a ground game in his state in addition to the SuperPAC ads.) This could work in theory for Rubio (the combined support for establishment candidates in New Hampshire is ~40%), but it does not take into consideration that four other candidates in the same field will also be making a last stand in New Hampshire. Rubio needs to both deflate Trump (ideally Carson can fulfill this role) and knock Bush, Kasich, Christie, and Fiorina out of contention to win the state, which is a tall order. If he cannot do that, his circumstances get much more difficult in South Carolina and Nevada, and he's DOA on Super Tuesday.

[mencken]

He's in no worse position to implode than anyone other than Cruz or Trump.

Triple negatives are difficult to put my head around; so you are saying that he is in no better position to implode than Cruz or Trump (but better positioned to implode than anyone else?) Just a bit odd, since I do not really think of Carson's support as being all that stable, and Cruz is only in high single digits.

[mencken]

He's in no worse position to implode than anyone other than Cruz or Trump.

Triple negatives are difficult to put my head around; so you are saying that he is in no better position to implode than Cruz or Trump (but better positioned to implode than anyone else?) Just a bit odd, since I do not really think of Carson's support as being all that stable, and Cruz is only in high single digits.

I'm saying this is such an overrated field, that Rubio really shouldn't be portrayed as a weak, substanceless candidate. He may very well have problems, but who really is going to take advantage of that?

Paul Ryan is definitely, positively, not going to be a dark horse entrant, unless of course he can only campaign three days a week, and a supermajority of Republican voters from all factions agree to vote for him.