French presidential election, 2022

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is one hell of a depressing election, looking at the candidates and numbers. I honestly might just sit this one out if I were French.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

French politics really suck. That's all I can say.

Honestly at this point I'd probably just hold my nose and vote for Macron in the first round as well. The fact that this wouldn't even be entirely tactical and that he's actually probably legitimately preferable to any of his serious opponents (not just Le Pen) really just underscores how lousy the politics of this country is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

Who did you vote for?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The results of the 1st round were at least of such a nature that I didn't suffer an immediate heart attack from it. Thanks French persons.

They're honestly just kind of boring but meh. Looking like Macron will win a high single digits second round victory like I expected.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

Who did you vote for?

Jadot

Actually a pretty good pick, I was thinking about how happy I was not having to vote in this absolutely horrendous election but I might've found him the least objectionable as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Le Pen opposes sanctions on Russian gas: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61073894

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thanks for the good summery. I have already noted in this thread, but it bears repeating I feel that a national top-two runoff system in the modern age - when the executive has any power rather than simply being a figurehead for the legislature of course - increasingly favors the personalization or "caudillo-ization" of politics. The first round vote becomes increasingly fragmented because there is no thresholds, limited barriers to running, and one can easily inform voters across the internet. Essentially duverger's in action. The fragmentation is however different from say the Dutch fragmentation that is resulting in multitudes of minor parties with pet issues. A single powerful seat for a single individual means that fragmentation multiplies the personalities, backgrounds, identities, who run - the things that can be represented by a person and not an ideological parliamentary party. We see this increasingly in countries across the world.

I mean look at the result. Both in 2017 and now we have most/all the major candidates effectively running with limited or irrelevant party apparatus. Now it is just more apparent since the parties that could once command almost every voter in France got a combined result under 10%. The setup for how legislative elections are contested simply means that the legislature becomes just as personalized and aligned with the executive's identity. This also is not unique to France. If Melenchon or Le Pen won last time or (could) win this time, the legislative results would no doubt be just as similar, just with a different cast of former nobodies. In my eyes, the only thing preventing France politics from fully personalizing is France's rich tradition of Ideological politics.

To the extent that a political system with a powerful president elected in two rounds would produce any particular partisan configuration, I would expect it to look a lot like Chile: a variety of parties and candidates, nearly all of whom are clearly identified either with the Left or with the Right. For a while this was the situation that prevailed in France, with the PCF and PS on one side and the UDF and RPR on the other.

That this is not the case in France now has a lot to do with France not having a "rich tradition of ideological politics" but in fact the exact opposite. In the late Third Republic, when every other rich Western democracy had a strong (perhaps too strong) culture of partisan politics, there were no real political parties to the right of the Marxist parties, only loosely defined groups of parliamentarians. Mass electoral politics in France has always been based basically around individuals. Under the present system, the PS was by, of, and for Mitterrand, the UDF was created by Giscard as an organization of his followers, and every successful Gaullist leader has created his own new political party. La République Emmanuel Macron is exactly the same. It's hard to think of anything more classically French.

This is actually the default way most countries work honestly, (like see anywhere in South America), France is just a bit of an exception due to being a very established democracy and strongly developed first world country. Even countries that initially had strong parties often end up going this route in the end (Mexico for a relatively recent example.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wikipedia now has the vote by constituency.



Macron almost wins a majority, with 266 seats. Le Pen has 206, and Melenchon won 105.

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why did Le Pen do so well in Lille?

She didn't.  That yellow wart near the top with the tiny red dot in the middle is Lille.

Alright but there seems to be an urban area southwest of it she did well in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

Does RN really have anyone else though? Although maybe they'll be eclipsed by Zemmour's party or something for 2027.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Brittany such a stronghold for Macron?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL Glenn Greenwald is getting pissy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL Glenn Greenwald is getting pissy.

Please show the tweets. I'm in the mood for some good old-fashioned dunking.

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1518319509031071748
He spent the last two weeks with his only commentary on it being arguing that Le Pen is basically a socialist and may win with support consolidated from left-wing voters so now that he's been clowned all he does is more pissy Twitter fighting.