Italy 2013: The official thread

[SPQR]

Pathetic.

This.

Like Pannella.

[Andrea]

@Phil

PD lists for Italian Abroads

Europe House

1 Laura Garavini MP (Germany – Berlin)
2 Gianni Farina MP (Switerland – Pfaeffikon)
3 Franco Narducci MP (Switerland – Argovia)
4 Michela Baranelli (Germany – Gross Gerau)
5 Andrea Biondi (UK – London)
6 Francesco Cerasani (Belgium – Bruxelles)
7 Pino Maggio (Germany – Villingen)
8 Domenico Mesiano (Switerland – Sion)
9 Roberto Serra (Luxembourg – Luxembourg)
10 Emilia Barbara Sina (Switerland – Zurigo)

Europe Senate

1 Claudio Micheloni MP (Switzerland - Neuchatel)
2 Elio Carozza (Belgium – Bruxelles)
3 Cristina Rizzotti (Germany- Stoccarda)
4 Massimiliano Vellini (Spain – Valencia)

South America House

1 Fabio Porta MP (Brazil – San Paolo)
2 Antonella Pinto (Venezuela – Valencia)
3 Flavio Giannetti (Argentina – Rosario)
4 Claudia Antonini (Brazil – Porto Alegre)
5 Mauro Sabbadini (Argentina – Salta)
6 Monica Patricia Rizzo (Argentina- Mar del Plata)
7 Luis Melieni detto Gino Renni (Argentina – Buenos Aires)
8 Filomena Narducci (Uruguay – Montevideo)

South America Senate

1 Francisco Nardelli (Argentina – Bahia Blanca)
2 Francesco Rotundo (Argentina – Moron)
3 Renato Palermo (Uruguay – Montevideo)
4 Fausto Longo (Brazil – San Paolo)

North / Central America House

1 Gianluca Galletto (USA – New York)
2 Francesca La Marca (Canada – Toronto)
3 Giovanni Rapanà (Canada – Montreal)
4 Marco Piana (USA – Los Angeles)

North-Central America Senate

1 Renato Turano (USA – Chicago)
2 Rocco Di Trolio (Canada – Vancouver)

Africa/Asia/Oceania/Antartide House

1 Marco Fedi MP (Australia – Melbourne)
2 Giuliano Giacovazzi (Sud Africa – Cape Town)

Africa/Asia/Oceania/Antartide Senate

1 Francesco Giacobbe (Australia – Sidney)
2 Silvia Finzi (Tunisia – Tunisi)

It looks as they are 2 retirements: Randazzo in Australia and co and Gino Bucchino. Who is the favourite to take the PD seat in North America/House now?

SEL will run on its own in Europe at the House.

[Keystone Phil]

Thank you! The Canadians usually do well but a New Yorker is also on the ballot so that should be a very competitive battle.

[Franknburger]

Out of interest, I did a little background check on the Germany-based PD candidates:

Lina Garavani: Political scientist, born and educated in Italy, came to Germany as a researcher, worked in several training / integration projects for young immigrants, organised anti-Mafia campaigns among Italian restaurant owners in Germany. MP since 2008, leads the PD faction in the parliamentary anti-Mafia committee. Looks like a pretty good choice.
 
Michela Baranelli: Long-term member of SPD youth organisation (JuSos), deputy leader of their Rüsselsheim chapter, represents (works at?) the Centro Italiano in Groß Gerau, which takes part in a network that supports professional integration of immigrants.

Pino Maggio: No information found.

[Keystone Phil]

Casini states there is no pact with the left. The way he described it: "Io al governo con Vendola è un film di fantascienza."

[SPQR]

Pannella won't be allied with Storace for "technical reasons".

[Andrea]

I was out this afternoon and so I couldn't enjoy all the drama about PdL's Campania lists!

[Keystone Phil]

As someone more interested in Campania and Sicily, tell me about this drama.

[Andrea]

As someone more interested in Campania and Sicily, tell me about this drama.

Campania lists was in the spotlight because of Cosentino. Let him stand or not?
At some point this afternoon a rumour spreads: Campania PdL lists (and all documents connected) were stolen! PdL spokepersons denied it saying Nitto Palma had them.
But it seems that at 6:30 PM candidates were in a Naples hotel re-signing everything. 8 PM is the deadline to present the lists.

[Keystone Phil]

This party is creating a nice little history of screwing up petitions and lists right at the deadline, isn't it? 

[Andrea]

This party is creating a nice little history of screwing up petitions and lists right at the deadline, isn't it?  

The list has been presented in time in the end. But all the tittle tattle was farcical and entertaining.

[Keystone Phil]

This party is creating a nice little history of screwing up petitions and lists right at the deadline, isn't it?  

The list has been presented in time in the end. But all the tittle tattle was farcical and entertaining.

And Cosentino was left out.

[Iannis]

Here tehre is a very interesting map with 2008 results:

http://www.lastampa.it/italia/speciali/elezioni-politiche-2013/elezioni-2008

!!

[SPQR]

Last Corriere della Sera poll had Veneto within 3%.

[Keystone Phil]

Here tehre is a very interesting map with 2008 results:

http://www.lastampa.it/italia/speciali/elezioni-politiche-2013/elezioni-2008

!!

Molise went with the center-left? Never knew that. And Berlusconi ran from a Molise constituency.

[Keystone Phil]

Not sure why these weren't posted: two new polls show this is getting a lot closer...

SpinCon:

Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 31.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.2%
M5S - 10.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.6%
Others - 7.7%

SWG:

Italia. Bene Comune - 33%
Center-right - 27.2%
M5S - 16.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

[Tender Branson]

Not sure why these weren't posted: two new polls show this is getting a lot closer...

SpinCon:

Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 31.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.2%
M5S - 10.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.6%
Others - 7.7%

SWG:

Italia. Bene Comune - 33%
Center-right - 27.2%
M5S - 16.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

[RogueBeaver]

Which pollsters are generally regarded as most accurate, if any?

[DL]

Last Corriere della Sera poll had Veneto within 3%.

Isn't Veneto normally the most right-leaning region in Itlay that typically goes to the right by 20+% margins? If they are only up by 3% there it would be the equivalent of the GOP barely being ahead in Texas.

[Zanas]

Seconded : how good is this tracker ? It seems to be compiling a number of polls from various firms, but I don't if it can be trusted and to what extent.

Anyway, the today delivery is the following :


From that, and from what I can gather from watching the polls separately, there clearly seems to be a momentum towards RC, away from M5S (those two possibly partly connected), towards the right-wing coalition and away from Monti (those maybe not so connected), and pretty much stability for Bene comune.

Is that your feeling fellows ?

[Keystone Phil]

Last Corriere della Sera poll had Veneto within 3%.

Isn't Veneto normally the most right-leaning region in Itlay that typically goes to the right by 20+% margins? If they are only up by 3% there it would be the equivalent of the GOP barely being ahead in Texas.

Veneto went with the center-right by 13% last time around. That was a good year for Silvio so I'd imagine the margin would come down.

Aside from this Corriere poll, the most recent poll had the center-right up by eight. Corriere might be an outlier.

There's a poll by Demos-Demetra (has to be the Corriere poll) that shows the following for Veneto (if I'm reading correctly)...

Camera vote

Center-right - 35.1%
Italia. Bene Comune - 33.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.8%
M5S - 9.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 2.5%
Indipendenza Veneta - 1.8%
Others - 1.8%


Senate vote

Center-right - 37.5%
Italia. Bene Comune - 34.2%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.8%
M5S - 8.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 2.3%
Others - 3.7%

[Andrea]

Yes, the general feeling (and media narrative) is that the race is getting tighter, Grillo is losing momentun, Monti's support a bit unclear (15+% or more close to 10%?), more media coverage about Ingroia than before.

Seconded : how good is this tracker ? It seems to be compiling a number of polls from various firms, but I don't if it can be trusted and to what extent.

Anyway, the today delivery is the following :

At the bottom of the table, they say it's an online survey sampling a voluntary panel of internet users taking into account sex, region, municipality's status (large, medium, little), employment, how many times they go to the mass.

[Andrea]

IPR

Lombardy: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 35% Monti 14.4%
Sicily: Bersani 35% Berlusconi 33% Monti 14%
Campania: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 32% Monti 12%
Puglia: Bersani 35.5% Berlusconi 31.5% Monti 17%

ISPO (Corriere)

Lombardy: Berlusconi 36.7 Bersani 34.5 Monti 14.9 Grillo 8.5 Ingroia 4.1
Veneto: Berlusconi 33.9 Bersani 30 Monti 17.4 Grillo 9.7 Ingroia 5.8
Campania: Bersani 32.5% Berlusconi 27.9% Monti 14.5% Grillo 12.4 Ingroia 8.3
Puglia : Bersani 33% Berlusconi 29.2% Monti 17% Grillo 12.9 Ingroia 5.6
Sicily: Berlusconi 29.6 Bersani 28.6 Grillo 18.3 Monti 16.6  Ingroia 4.9

National polls

EMG (La7 News): Bersani 37.1% Berlusconi 28% Monti 15.2% Grillo 12.8% Ingroia 4.6%
IPR: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 28.5% Monti 14.3% Grillo 13.38% Ingroia 4.3%
Tecné (SKY News): Bersani 35.8% Berlusconi 26.5% Monti 15.2% Grillo 14% Ingroia 4.8%
Piepoli: Bersani 39.5% Berlusconi 30.5% Monti 14.0% Grillo 10% Ingroia 4.0%

[Keystone Phil]

I guess Nichi is to blame for the Puglia numbers.

[SPQR]

The center-left is still ahead nationally by around 9%,and at last there are polls showing it ahead also in Lombardy and Sicily, which would grant it an absolute majority in the Senate.
If,come election day,the lead nationally will have become 6% instead of 9%,nobody really gives a damn,as long as the swing hasn't been in the Senate swing regions.

So,saying that "Berlusconi is coming back" is pure nonsense.